[NU Sports] future of basketball at NU? Grim, gloomy and going nowhere

Mon Mar 12 20:18:41 CDT 2012

Jeff, and everyone on the list --

Sorry to be a downer cow, and I would be only too glad to eat these
words in due time, but we are not going to win the NIT.

I wouldn't be surprised if we lose to Akron. I mean, I expect us to
win. But the air is definitely out of the purple balloon.

Intriguing analysis otherwise BTW and thanks to Jeff for doing it ...

Sent from my iPhone

On Mar 12, 2012, at 6:13 PM, "Beamsley, Jeff"
<Jeff.Beamsley at covisint.com> wrote:

> I went looking for some more data on whether recruiting basketball players is more difficult than recruiting football players.
>
> The basic numbers would suggest no.
>
> There are 120 FBS schools each of whom can offer 85 scholarships.  That's 10,200 recruits.
>
> There are 345 Div I basketball schools, but each one can only offer 13 scholarships.  That's 4,485 recruits.
>
> So just on the face of it, it should be twice as hard to recruit a football player than a basketball player.
>
> There are roughly 300,000 high school seniors playing football.
>
> There are about 150,000 high school seniors playing boys basketball
>
> Since there are half as many basketball players with roughly half as many available scholarships, recruiting challenges for both sports should be about the same.
>
> The same statistics should hold for smart kids.
>
> If you assume that intelligence is distributed equally among the populations of basketball and football players, there should be twice as many smart football players available for NU than basketball players, but NU basketball only needs 3-4 basketball recruits every year while football needs 20-25.
>
> So that again suggests that football is harder.
>
> Now what about competition.  Who does NU compete with for smart football kids?  Stanford, UoM, Vandy, Duke.
>
> So even if we only get to pick after them, we get the 100th good smart football player and we seem to be doing fine find enough kids to have a competitive team.
>
> If you run the same math on the basketball side, assume half the number of available recruits, and assume each school is recruiting 4 players a year, NU only has to be number 13 on the list of smart schools to get the 48th smartest basketball player in the country.
>
> I think that you can see where I'm going with this.
>
> The issue IS NOT academic standards.  There is plenty of supply.
>
> The issue is recruiting.
>
> NU has a great deal to offer any smart student athlete whether they play football or basketball.
>
> It's working in football.  It's not working in basketball.
>
> There were plenty of smart football players who didn't even consider going to NU before Gary Barnett came to town because they didn't associate NU football with success.  Barnett, Walker, and Fitz have changed that.
>
> If anything, it is easier on the basketball side because basketball kids start interacting with college coaches in 8th and 9th grade at their AAU camps.  Just as Barnett lit a fire under a whole generation of Chicago area kids that jumped on the NU bandwagon in '95 and '96, we are just on the cusp of sowing those seeds in the Chicago area basketball community.  NU didn't get to the dance this year, but we could win the NIT.
>
> There is also a good recruiting class coming in that should add size to our small lineup.  Whether Cobb and Sobo can pick up the slack for Shurna is still to be seen, but there is certainly that possibility.
>
> In other words, we are one basketball bandwagon away from a sea change in this program too.
>
> Whether Carmody is the guy to take us to the promised land, I don't know.
>
> Barnet and Walker had to give way to Fitz to put us on the consistent upward path in football.
>
> We may need a coaching change here too, to get to the next level.
>
> Phillips will have to make that call.
>
> But I feel that we will also witness a basketball transformation in the near future at NU similar to what we saw in football.  You could see that in the media leading up to selection Sunday.
>
> Everyone would love to replay the '95 NU Cinderella story for basketball, just have to get invited to the dance.
>
> Jeff
>
> ________________________________
>
> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com on behalf of Roy S. Lamberton
> Sent: Mon 3/12/2012 11:31 AM
> To: 'Eric C West'; nwu-sports at tssi.com
> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] future of basketball at NU? Grim,gloomy and going nowhere
>
>
>
> Funny, I don't remember the story ever being refuted...
>
> Altho I doubt that the admissions folks would look at a blanked out transcript and give an
> off the record ruling of admissibility.
>
> We still have to acknowledge that we can only recruit about 25% of the HS Athletic Pool in
> any given year, and in the case of Basketball, I suspect that the true number is closer to
> 20%, based on what I know about the general academic performance of basketball players in
> our area even if it is an over simplification of the facts.
>
> The talent pool in Basketball shrinks even further because there are many more Div I
> basketball programs playing for the tournaments than football. The Mount St. Mary's of the
> world have good programs because they can sell the fact that they are both Div I and
> eligible for a tournament that they can regularly make. Cut the number of teams eligible
> for the NCAA Tournament to match the number of Div IA (to use the old nomenclature) and
> you probably can reduce the NCAA's to 32 teams and play it in a shorter span.
>
> That would also make it easier for NU (and the other academic schools) to recruit top
> student-athletes, but I don't expect any change in the tournament, any time soon.
>
> I should point out that many baseball players also fall far short of academic superiority
> - maybe it's because they play in the Spring when "the fever" strikes.
>
> (for Jonathan - I put quotes around the private because NU takes government funds for
> research just the way the state schools do. While that technically does not impact the
> athletic budget, it does impact facilities in the subjects the athletes study, the
> professors and instructors, and the general touch and feel of the campus.
>
> Many private schools do not want everyone to know their endowments, their income, or what
> they spend the money on, because in one sense, it is nobody's business except the
> university's and their students' and parents' concern.)
>
> rsl
>
> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
> Opinions expressed above are mine alone and are not
> those of any organizations of which I am a member.
> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
> Roy S. Lamberton - Senior Associate.
> Computer Applications & Support Associates
> Coach Roy's Random Thoughts - http://coachroy.org <http://coachroy.org/>
> --------------------- Also ----------------------
> "Commissioner" Delaware American Legion Baseball
> Director Media Relations - Little League
>  Senior League Softball World Series
> CTR2 USN (67-70) - CTRCS USNR (Ret) (64-67/70-95)
> Northwestern University - Speech 1974 -
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> =================================================
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>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of Eric C
> West
> Sent: Monday, March 12, 2012 11:03 AM
> To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] future of basketball at NU? Grim, gloomy and going nowhere
>
> Why on earth should we remember a completely false urban legend? Seriously, it is well
> past time to put that fake Amaker story to bed. Next thing you'll tell me that the library
> is sinking.
>
> Eric West
> e-west at northwestern.edu
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of Roy S.
> Lamberton
> Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2012 10:36 PM
> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] future of basketball at NU? Grim, gloomy and going nowhere
>
>
> Remember the story about Tommy Amaker's interview at NU.
>
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