[NU Sports] New Palm projections

[Beamsley, Jeff]

The article was really interesting.

Bottom line is that this is a complicated process that is heavily
weighted on RPI.  So that's the good news for NU.  

This does also beg the question a little bit.  If NU is short on wins,
but all (or at least most) of its loses were "good" (close games, higher
ranked teams) does that mean NU gets ranked ahead of a team that has
more "easy" wins or more "bad" loses?

This whole focus of RPI does also explain why the BT pretty reliably
sends 7 teams to the dance.  If you assume that the BT is going to
produce at least four top twenty-five teams (there are five this year),
that means that everyone else in the conference plays those teams twice.
So automatically, every team in the conference is going to have at least
4 road games and more importantly 4 home games against top 25 teams.
That also means that the next couple "unranked" conference teams (again
almost by definition) are going to have at least one win against a top
25 team.    

The #6 team in the conference this year (Purdue) has beaten UoM on the
road.
The #7 team in the conference this year (NU) has beaten MSU at home. 

All that adds up to consistently strong RPI's, which as we've read, are
what explain consistent invitations for at least 7 BT teams.

Also we have a good example in Illinois of how "bad" loses can torpedo
the hopes of a team with a good record against the top 25.  Their loses
to Nebraska, Minny, and PSU will likely overshadow their home wins
against MSU and OSU. 

Jeff

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
On Behalf Of Weinbaum, Willie
Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 1:24 PM
Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [NU Sports] New Palm projections

The joke about NU football used to be that it could only beat two
colleges - - the College of Cardinals and the Electoral College.  Long
ago, in my era.

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
On Behalf Of neonrye at aol.com
Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 1:19 PM
To: Jonathan Hodges; nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com; Aaron Ament
Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [NU Sports] New Palm projections

Teddy Greenstein analyzes our "bubble" chances in today's Trib.  Says we
need at least 2 more wins.  Frankly, this stuff is almost as mysterious
as the College of Cardinals choosing a new Pope.  Maybe if we see a
Purple puff of smoke on Selection Sunday, we will be "in".:-) Sent from
my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

-----Original Message-----
From: Jonathan Hodges <j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu>
Sender: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com
Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2012 13:10:09
To: Aaron Ament<aaronsament at gmail.com>
Cc: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com<nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com>;
nwu-sports at tssi.com<nwu-sports at tssi.com>
Subject: Re: [NU Sports] New Palm projections

In that scenario (L to OSU and at Iowa, but W first round Big Ten
tourney game and L second round game), NU COULD very well get in, but
they'd be in a much more difficult situation and a lot would depend on
how other bubble teams do.

Like I've said in earlier messages, the committee could care less how
many teams a given conference has in the tournament: they don't assign,
say, 7 slots to the Big Ten and then use conference standings to fill in
those teams - they pick from the entire field of available teams and
things like conference standing and even conference record have little
to no bearing on their decisions, since those statistics only compare
teams within the conference and not from the entire nation.  I'd
encourage looking at this SI article from last year that goes through
the selection process (the NCAA set up a mock session for reporters):
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_staples/02/21/mock.to
urnament.selection/index.html

In any case, NU still has work to do before it punches a ticket
anywhere, and there are certainly no gimmes.

Jonathan

--
Jonathan Hodges
Contributor, HailToPurple
Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
Twitter: @hailtopurple
Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu



On Tue, Feb 28, 2012 at 12:47 PM, Aaron Ament <aaronsament at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I disagree with that.  If we lose to Iowa and win the first round 
> game, I believe we are in.  The Big Ten will get 7 teams and it's 
> tough to see anyone jumping us in that scenario.
>
>
>
> On Feb 28, 2012, at 12:42 PM, Jonathan Hodges < 
> j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu> wrote:
>
> > Note that Palm, like most other bracketologists out there uses the 
> > "if
> the
> > season ended today" theory to fill out the brackets.  So, this 
> > projection does not include the probable loss to OSU as well as a 
> > probable loss in
> the
> > Big Ten tournament.
> >
> > But, consensus says that NU will get in with a win over Iowa & in 
> > the opening round of the Big Ten tournament.  A second conf tourney 
> > win or
> win
> > over OSU would pretty much lock NU in.  A loss in either of those 
> > "needed victory" games would likely put NU on the wrong side of the
bubble.
> >
> > NU's best traits (in the eyes of the selection committee) are that 
> > they have no "bad" losses (e.g. losses to RPI 100+ teams) and have 
> > an
> extremely
> > tough strength of schedule.  This makes winning those 2 "needed
victory"
> > games that much more important, but they'll clearly be tough: Iowa 
> > is playing extremely well right now and NU has to travel, and the 
> > Big Ten tourney game is, of course, a neutral site game and who 
> > knows what can happen there.
> >
> > If NU doesn't cement itself by winning at least 3 more games, a lot 
> > will likely depend on what other bubble teams do and if there are 
> > any big
> upsets
> > in some of the "1-bid" league tournaments where an "in" team is 
> > upset (thereby taking away an at large spot).
> >
> > BTW, the NU blog Sippin on Purple has been doing a nice job of 
> > summing up NU's position in bracketology while also keeping up with 
> > the other bubble action, here's the most recent post:
> >
> http://www.sippinonpurple.com/2012/2/27/2827547/northwestern-ncaa-tour
> nament-bracketology-update-february-27-2012
> >
> > Jonathan
> >
> >
> > --
> > Jonathan Hodges
> > Contributor, HailToPurple
> > Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
> > Twitter: @hailtopurple
> > Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu
> >
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Feb 28, 2012 at 12:31 PM, <hakirsch at aol.com> wrote:
> >
> >> If we get an NCAA berth, I will gladly take it. But if we can get 
> >> in
> with
> >> a 7-11 conference record then there really has been berth inflation
> >>
> >> We got our first post season berth in 1983 in the NIT with a 7-11 
> >> record as well, when the BT had recently won 3 national titles 
> >> (1976,1979,1981) and had 2 teams in the final 4 in 1980).  Back 
> >> then there were 48 NCAA teams and 32 NIT.  We were one of the last 
> >> picks making therefore
> making us
> >> close to #80.
> >>
> >> Harry
> >> Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: "Weinbaum, Willie" <Willie.Weinbaum at espn.com>
> >> Sender: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com
> >> Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2012 12:23:09
> >> Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com<nwu-sports at tssi.com>
> >> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] New Palm projections
> >>
> >> Brings to mind what Al Davis would have said, with two games left 
> >> in the regular season:
> >>
> >> "Just Win, Baby."
> >>
> >> (In NYC, related to the Knicks, it's "Just Lin, Baby.")
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com 
> >> [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
> On
> >> Behalf Of Aaron Ament
> >> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 12:21 PM
> >> To: Beamsley, Jeff
> >> Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
> >> Subject: [NU Sports] New Palm projections
> >>
> >> CBS Sportsline just released new projections with us as an 11 seed
> playing
> >> in Louisville!  Now not even one of the last four teams in...
> >>
> >>
> >> On Feb 28, 2012, at 10:54 AM, "Beamsley, Jeff" <
> Jeff.Beamsley at covisint.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>> Tyus Jones DOES have a long list of offers.
> >>>
> >>> Doesn't appear that NU is in the running.
> >>>
> >>> Jeff
> >>>
> >>> -----Original Message-----
> >>> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com 
> >>> [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
> >>> On Behalf Of Joe Thiegs
> >>> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 10:49 AM
> >>> To: Jim Bendat
> >>> Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
> >>> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] Possible NU recruit scores 71 in high 
> >>> school game
> >>>
> >>> I saw this on the local news but didn't know he was being 
> >>> recruited by NU until your post, Jim.  Maybe the best stat is that

> >>> he was 13-14 from the free throw line.  :)  Broman averaged 37.9 
> >>> ppg last year as a sophomore and was averaging 45.8 ppg after nine

> >>> games earlier this year (in mid-January, well before this game)!  
> >>> See 
> >>> http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/boys-basketball/post/_/id/2249
> >>> /esp nh s-players-of-the-week-jan-11-2012under
> >>> "Midwest."  Not all against the greatest opposition but, still, he

> >>> definitely can shoot. I'm sure he'll garner more attention now, 
> >>> but let's hope the 'Cats can land him.
> >>>
> >>> Probably the best high school player in Minnesota right now is 
> >>> Tyus Jones of Apple Valley, a sophomore and a 5-star recruit, 
> >>> rated the third-best player in the country in the class of 2014.  
> >>> He already has offers from Izzo, Matta, Tubby, Krzyzewski, etc.
> >>> http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/i
> >>> d/11
> >>> 26
> >>> 17/tyus-jones
> >>>
> >>> -Joe
> >>> **
> >>>
> >>> On Mon, Feb 27, 2012 at 10:15 PM, Jim Bendat 
> >>> <thehaze at earthlink.net>
> >>> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> This kid is a high school junior right now. 71 points in any game

> >>>> is
> >>> no
> >>>> small matter!
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>> http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/somehow-minnes
> >>> ota- st ar-anders-broman-scores-71-points-200757408.html
> >>>>
> >>>> _______________________________________________
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