[NU Sports] New Palm projections

[Eric C West]

You can make all the assertions you want (and your gambling habits are your business), but if NU loses its next two games the NCAA won't be searching around for some other Big Ten team to be the 7th in the field. "Awareness" does not imply relevance, and countless actual past tournament fields are evidence against your claim. Think about it: every year, people always gripe, "How could the committee put in X teams from This Conference and only Y teams in from That Conference?" Because it doesn't work that way, and it never has.

Beyond that, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised that nothing is set in stone yet. There must be close to a thousand games left to play before the selection show, and nearly all of them have some sort of effect on where the "cut line" will eventually be. What I wouldn't give to see the Wildcats forget about what might be "enough" and just win.

Eric West
e-west at northwestern.edu


-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of Aaron Ament
Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 12:38 PM
To: Jonathan Hodges
Cc: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com; nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [NU Sports] New Palm projections

Regardless of what some past committee members say publicly, I can assure you most of them are very aware of how many teams each conference is receiving.  And I am willing to bet anyone that there is no way they will give the Big East 9 teams and the Big Ten 6.

Also, has any BCS school with an RPI in the mid-40s and a signature win over a number 1 or 2 seed ever been left out?

As the article Jonathan links to points out, it may be difficult for a reporter to follow what's going on at the conf level when things are moving that quickly in the committee room in a mock selection.  I can assure you for a University AD on the committee that it is not.


On Feb 28, 2012, at 1:10 PM, Jonathan Hodges <j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu> wrote:

> In that scenario (L to OSU and at Iowa, but W first round Big Ten tourney game and L second round game), NU COULD very well get in, but they'd be in a much more difficult situation and a lot would depend on how other bubble teams do.
> 
> Like I've said in earlier messages, the committee could care less how 
> many teams a given conference has in the tournament: they don't 
> assign, say, 7 slots to the Big Ten and then use conference standings 
> to fill in those teams - they pick from the entire field of available 
> teams and things like conference standing and even conference record 
> have little to no bearing on their decisions, since those statistics 
> only compare teams within the conference and not from the entire 
> nation.  I'd encourage looking at this SI article from last year that 
> goes through the selection process (the NCAA set up a mock session for 
> reporters): 
> http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_staples/02/21/mock.
> tournament.selection/index.html
> 
> In any case, NU still has work to do before it punches a ticket anywhere, and there are certainly no gimmes.
> 
> Jonathan
> 
> --
> Jonathan Hodges
> Contributor, HailToPurple
> Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
> Twitter: @hailtopurple
> Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu
> 
> 
> 
> On Tue, Feb 28, 2012 at 12:47 PM, Aaron Ament <aaronsament at gmail.com> wrote:
> I disagree with that.  If we lose to Iowa and win the first round game, I believe we are in.  The Big Ten will get 7 teams and it's tough to see anyone jumping us in that scenario.
> 
> 
> 
> On Feb 28, 2012, at 12:42 PM, Jonathan Hodges <j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu> wrote:
> 
> > Note that Palm, like most other bracketologists out there uses the 
> > "if the season ended today" theory to fill out the brackets.  So, 
> > this projection does not include the probable loss to OSU as well as 
> > a probable loss in the Big Ten tournament.
> >
> > But, consensus says that NU will get in with a win over Iowa & in 
> > the opening round of the Big Ten tournament.  A second conf tourney 
> > win or win over OSU would pretty much lock NU in.  A loss in either 
> > of those "needed victory" games would likely put NU on the wrong side of the bubble.
> >
> > NU's best traits (in the eyes of the selection committee) are that 
> > they have no "bad" losses (e.g. losses to RPI 100+ teams) and have 
> > an extremely tough strength of schedule.  This makes winning those 2 "needed victory"
> > games that much more important, but they'll clearly be tough: Iowa 
> > is playing extremely well right now and NU has to travel, and the 
> > Big Ten tourney game is, of course, a neutral site game and who 
> > knows what can happen there.
> >
> > If NU doesn't cement itself by winning at least 3 more games, a lot 
> > will likely depend on what other bubble teams do and if there are 
> > any big upsets in some of the "1-bid" league tournaments where an 
> > "in" team is upset (thereby taking away an at large spot).
> >
> > BTW, the NU blog Sippin on Purple has been doing a nice job of 
> > summing up NU's position in bracketology while also keeping up with 
> > the other bubble action, here's the most recent post:
> > http://www.sippinonpurple.com/2012/2/27/2827547/northwestern-ncaa-to
> > urnament-bracketology-update-february-27-2012
> >
> > Jonathan
> >
> >
> > --
> > Jonathan Hodges
> > Contributor, HailToPurple
> > Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
> > Twitter: @hailtopurple
> > Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu
> >
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Feb 28, 2012 at 12:31 PM, <hakirsch at aol.com> wrote:
> >
> >> If we get an NCAA berth, I will gladly take it. But if we can get 
> >> in with a 7-11 conference record then there really has been berth 
> >> inflation
> >>
> >> We got our first post season berth in 1983 in the NIT with a 7-11 
> >> record as well, when the BT had recently won 3 national titles 
> >> (1976,1979,1981) and had 2 teams in the final 4 in 1980).  Back 
> >> then there were 48 NCAA teams and 32 NIT.  We were one of the last 
> >> picks making therefore making us close to #80.
> >>
> >> Harry
> >> Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: "Weinbaum, Willie" <Willie.Weinbaum at espn.com>
> >> Sender: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com
> >> Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2012 12:23:09
> >> Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com<nwu-sports at tssi.com>
> >> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] New Palm projections
> >>
> >> Brings to mind what Al Davis would have said, with two games left 
> >> in the regular season:
> >>
> >> "Just Win, Baby."
> >>
> >> (In NYC, related to the Knicks, it's "Just Lin, Baby.")
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com 
> >> [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of Aaron Ament
> >> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 12:21 PM
> >> To: Beamsley, Jeff
> >> Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
> >> Subject: [NU Sports] New Palm projections
> >>
> >> CBS Sportsline just released new projections with us as an 11 seed 
> >> playing in Louisville!  Now not even one of the last four teams in...
> >>
> >>
> >> On Feb 28, 2012, at 10:54 AM, "Beamsley, Jeff" 
> >> <Jeff.Beamsley at covisint.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>> Tyus Jones DOES have a long list of offers.
> >>>
> >>> Doesn't appear that NU is in the running.
> >>>
> >>> Jeff
> >>>
> >>> -----Original Message-----
> >>> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com 
> >>> [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
> >>> On Behalf Of Joe Thiegs
> >>> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 10:49 AM
> >>> To: Jim Bendat
> >>> Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
> >>> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] Possible NU recruit scores 71 in high 
> >>> school game
> >>>
> >>> I saw this on the local news but didn't know he was being 
> >>> recruited by NU until your post, Jim.  Maybe the best stat is that 
> >>> he was 13-14 from the free throw line.  :)  Broman averaged 37.9 
> >>> ppg last year as a sophomore and was averaging 45.8 ppg after nine 
> >>> games earlier this year (in mid-January, well before this game)!  
> >>> See 
> >>> http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/boys-basketball/post/_/id/2249
> >>> /esp nh s-players-of-the-week-jan-11-2012under
> >>> "Midwest."  Not all against the greatest opposition but, still, he 
> >>> definitely can shoot. I'm sure he'll garner more attention now, 
> >>> but let's hope the 'Cats can land him.
> >>>
> >>> Probably the best high school player in Minnesota right now is 
> >>> Tyus Jones of Apple Valley, a sophomore and a 5-star recruit, 
> >>> rated the third-best player in the country in the class of 2014.  
> >>> He already has offers from Izzo, Matta, Tubby, Krzyzewski, etc.
> >>> http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/i
> >>> d/11
> >>> 26
> >>> 17/tyus-jones
> >>>
> >>> -Joe
> >>> **
> >>>
> >>> On Mon, Feb 27, 2012 at 10:15 PM, Jim Bendat 
> >>> <thehaze at earthlink.net>
> >>> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> This kid is a high school junior right now. 71 points in any game 
> >>>> is
> >>> no
> >>>> small matter!
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>> http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/somehow-minnes
> >>> ota- st ar-anders-broman-scores-71-points-200757408.html
> >>>>
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