[NU Sports] Beat Penn State? Really?

Mon Oct 3 09:26:45 CDT 2011

There may be an issue here, but it depends on how these statistics
compare with others in the BT, or at least those that we would consider
our peers.

First, by way of disclosure, I didn't see the Illinois game and I
haven't yet seen a rebroadcast.  So I can't comment on what we did right
or wrong.  What I did read is that Fitz felt that our young secondary
didn't hold up.

I can comment on Illinois though, because I DID see the Illinois game
last week against Western and the week before against Arizona State.
They were both comeback wins sparked at least in part by a strong
running game.  So they have some recent history and belief on their side
regarding their ability to win.

Normally we get these guys late in the season when they have had to deal
with some disappointment.  Right now they are on a roll and the win over
NU only re-enforces that belief.  They came into the NU game 4-0.  The
last time they started the season that strong was 1951.  So they have a
right to feel as though there is something special going on.  

BTW in 1951 Illinois went 9-0-1 (0-0 tie with OSU), won the Rose Bowl,
and claimed a share of the National Championship with Georgia Tech
(Boand System).  TN is generally regarded as national champs because
they won the AP vote at the end of the regular season.  TN then lost to
the Maryland in one of the four post season bowl games played that year.
It was a simpler time.

Jeff

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
On Behalf Of Jonathan Hodges
Sent: Monday, October 03, 2011 9:39 AM
To: Brad Wilson
Cc: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [NU Sports] Beat Penn State? Really?

Regarding my statement: "Fitz has certainly got NU into plenty of close
games in which it had no business being, too"

Northwestern has been an underdog in 37 games under Fitz (55.2% of NU's
games).  In those games, NU has covered the spread 22 times (59.5%) and
won
outright 14 times (37.8%).

Also, NU has been tied or had the lead in the second half of 53 games
under
Fitz (79.1% of games) - and NU had a 2nd half lead in 51 of those,
including
a streak of 26 such games between 2008 and 2010.

Given that Fitz has an overall win rate of 53.7% this means he's given
up a
second half lead in 22.4% of games.  My argument, though, is that it's
impressive that he had NU ahead in the second half of over 76% of his
games.  (For a related comparison point, Fitz has been tied or had the
lead
in the 4th quarter in 20% more games than his predecessor, Walker).

Jonathan

--
Jonathan Hodges
Contributor, HailToPurple
Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
Twitter: @hailtopurple
Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu

On Sun, Oct 2, 2011 at 2:49 PM, Brad Wilson <bwdolphin146 at yahoo.com>
wrote:

> Really? Which of those games did NU have no business being in? Which?
None
> of those 4 losses were to overwhelmingly powerful squads. You could
make a
> case for MSU last season  but the other three nowhere near. NU was as
good
> as MSU '06, Illinois '11 and PSU '10 and should have won all three
going
> away.
>
> The two bowl games -- Auburn and Mizzou -- maybe those games. Even
then
> though ...
>
> bw
>
>
>
>
> "Stupidity is infinitely more fascinating than intelligence.
Intelligence
> has its limits while stupidity has none. To observe a profoundly
stupid
> individual can be very enriching, and that's why we should never feel
> contempt for them." -- Claude Chabrol (1930-2010)
>
> "But to provoke -- in the good sense -- is the performer's role. It's
not
> just to give one more concert. That's not culture. That"s marketing."
--
> Pierre Boulez
>
>
> "Quis ipsos custodes custodiet?" -- Juvenal
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Jonathan Hodges <j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu>
> *To:* "Weinbaum, Willie" <Willie.Weinbaum at espn.com>
> *Cc:* "bwdolphin146 at yahoo.com" <bwdolphin146 at yahoo.com>; "
> nwu-sports at tssi.com" <nwu-sports at tssi.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, October 2, 2011 2:35 PM
>
> *Subject:* Re: [NU Sports] Beat Penn State? Really?
>
> Actually, that should be 1-4 (1 win: 2008 v Purdue, 4 loses: 06 v MSU
- up
> 38-3, 10 v MSU - up 17-0, 10 @ PSU - up 21-0, 11 @ Ill - up 28-10).
>
> While those collapses are disappointing, Fitz has certainly got NU
into
> plenty of close games in which it had no business being, too.
>
> --
> Jonathan Hodges
> Contributor, HailToPurple
> Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
> Twitter: @hailtopurple
> Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu
>
>
>
> On Sun, Oct 2, 2011 at 1:43 PM, Weinbaum, Willie
<Willie.Weinbaum at espn.com
> > wrote:
>
> One of more bizarre stats I read @ Lake the Posts, which did a
thorough
> recap of y-day's Orange-crushing defeat of the Cats:  Fitz is 1-3 in
Big Ten
> games in which Cats have led by 17.
>
> Optimistic Cats will improve in this vital area.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Brad Wilson [mailto:bwdolphin146 at yahoo.com]
> Sent: Sunday, October 02, 2011 1:30 PM
> To: Weinbaum, Willie; nwu-sports at tssi.com
> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] Beat Penn State? Really?
>
> Touche!! We should be down by two TDs mid 4Q in best case, right, for
a
> rally?
>
> Brad Wilson
> ------Original Message------
> From: Weinbaum, Willie
> To: bwdolphin146 at yahoo.com
> Subject: RE: [NU Sports] Beat Penn State? Really?
> Sent: Oct 2, 2011 13:19
>
> As long as Cats don't spot 'em a big lead, should be OK. :)
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
On
> Behalf Of Brad Wilson
> Sent: Sunday, October 02, 2011 1:18 PM
> To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
> Subject: [NU Sports] Beat Penn State? Really?
>
> Nits have owned NU except when they are horrible and this year they
are
> only half-horrible (offense). I would not think PSU can be thought of
as a
> win.
>
> Brad Wilson
> Sent on the Sprint(r) Now Network from my BlackBerry(r)
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