[NU Sports] In need of a basketball expert

[Beamsley, Jeff]

Can't claim to be an expert, but still have an opinion.

20 wins didn't get us in last year, but there is an expanded play-in
round this year, so maybe this year it will be enough. 

I think that we have to go 11-1 in our non-con schedule to have a
reasonable chance at a 20 win regular season.

That way we only have to go 9-9 in the conference.

But let's assume we go 10-2 (losses to Baylor and Creighton).  That
means we have to 10-8 in the conference.

Here's where I figure our 8 losses can come from. We will lose the five
games that we have with OSU, Wisky, and UoM.  That gives us 3 more
losses that can come from the remaining 13 games (6 road 7 home).  

If we are able to beat Minny, Indiana, PSU, and Iowa on the road, then
we can afford to lose to Ill and Purdue on the road and still take one
home conference loss.  I'm suggesting that we beat PSU, IL, Purdude,
UNL, Iowa, and Minny at home.  That means our one home loss is to MSU.

So here's how that schedule works out.

12/28/11 at Ohio State		L   
01/01/12 vs. Penn State   	W
01/04/12 vs. Illinois   	W
01/11/12 at Michigan   		L
01/14/12 vs. Michigan State	L   
01/18/12 at Wisconsin   	L
01/22/12 at Minnesota   	W
01/28/12 vs. Purdue   		W
02/02/12 vs. Nebraska   	W
02/05/12 at Illinois   		L
02/09/12 vs. Iowa   		W
02/12/12 at Purdue  		L
02/15/12 at Indiana   		W
02/18/12 vs. Minnesota   	W
02/21/12 vs. Michigan   	L
02/25/12 at Penn State   	W
02/29/12 vs. Ohio State   	L
03/03/12 at Iowa   		W

Big games early on this schedule from my perspective are home wins
against Ill and Purdue, and a road win at Minny.  The other big road
wins are Indiana and PSU.  

Beat Creighton and life gets easier.

Jeff

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com]
On Behalf Of Charles Herron
Sent: Wednesday, November 30, 2011 11:13 AM
To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: [NU Sports] In need of a basketball expert

Sirs,

I am greatly in need of a basketball expert.  We are currently 6-0, with
6 more non-conference games to go.  Is it safe to assume 4-2 (losses to
Baylor and Creighton), or 10-2 heading in to Big Ten play ?

We then have 18 Big Ten games.  We miss Wisconsin and Indiana in
Evanston, and we miss Nebraska and Michigan State on the road.

What is our minimum conference mark to go with 10-2 in order to make the
NCAA tournament ?  Is that conference mark even likely/possible ?

I.e. is 10-8 conference after 10-2 n-c, meaning 20-10, even sufficient ?
Can we do 10-8 ?

Thanks for any enlightenment.

Chuck Herron   Tech '85
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