[NU Sports] Detroit

Mon Nov 28 13:51:45 CST 2011

Here are the only constraints for Big Ten affiliated bowls (otherwise they
have the pick of any bowl eligible Big Ten team, of which there are 10 this
year):

1. Rose Bowl: winner of the Big Ten championship game

2. Capital One Bowl: can only pick available team with most overall wins or
teams within 1 win (e.g. cannot pick 7-5 team over a 9-3 team, but could
pick an 8-4 team over a 9-3 team).

3. Outback Bowl: same restriction as Capital One EXCEPT if the Big Ten has
one of its teams as an at-large BCS selection, then, no restrictions.

4. Insight Bowl: must pick loser of championship game if not already
selected.

5. Gator Bowl: none.

6. Meineke Car Care Bowl (Houston): none.

7. TicketCity Bowl (Dallas): none.

8. Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit): none.

As many others have mentioned, Michigan is very much in line for a BCS
at-large spot (likely in the Sugar Bowl), but they still must finish in the
top 14 of the BCS standings (they are currently 16th).  This is likely (7
projections I've seen have them in the Sugar) since the Wisc (15th)/MSU
(13th) loser will fall below them, and Georgia (14th) would fall with a
loss to LSU.  Also, Oklahoma (10th) may fall below them with a loss to
Oklahoma St.  They must also avoid being jumped by Baylor (17th) who plays
Texas (22nd).  All in all, I agree that they'll get just enough help to get
to at least 14th.

If that happens, a lot depends on how far PSU falls.  The consensus seems
to be that they won't fall further than Houston (who wouldn't have a chance
to grab PSU during "typical" seasons).  I could have seen NU having an
argument here if they had won vs MSU, but I think the chances are extremely
low now.

That would leave NU, Purdue, and Illinois for the final 2 slots.  IMHO, I
don't see Dallas going for NU for the 2nd straight year since we didn't
exactly sell the place out last year, BUT LakeThePosts has a very good post
as to why NU should be selected to go there, it's worth a look:
http://www.laketheposts.com/index.php/2011/11/green-jacket-bowl-picture-112711/

According to the 7 bowl projections I've referenced earlier, 5 have Purdue
going to TicketCity and 2 have NU going there (with the other going to
Detroit in all situations & Illinois left for an at-large bid).

Detroit will almost definitely grab whichever team Dallas doesn't between
NU and Purdue (coincidentally, the only 2 teams the Big Ten has ever sent
to Detroit).  The reason is that Illinois is extremely undesirable at this
point (losers of 6 straight - only team in FBS history to win 6 in a row
only to then lose 6, coach already fired).  The bowls only think about
themselves: why would they want to negotiate with other bowls or teams when
they can just grab the most desirable school left on the slate.  In fact,
Detroit is very happy any time the Big Ten has enough eligible teams to
fill its slot, otherwise they have had to resort to selection from the
likes of the Sun Belt (who have far fewer fans and are also far less likely
to travel far north for a bowl).

Some have insinuated that NU should reject a bid from Detroit in order to
shop itself to at-large bowls.  This will not happen.  The bowl has an
agreement with the conference, and I'm not sure NU would even be allowed to
reject a bid.  Plus, it would certainly look bad going forward if NU had
rejected a bid in order to find a better destination for itself - what bowl
would want to take NU later as it may turn around and do the same thing to
it.  Yes, there are back room dealings but I don't believe it ever involves
rejecting a bid from a bowl affiliated with one's conference.

I suppose the best case for an at-large would be if Michigan does not get
into a BCS game (which would all 3 of the following to happen: Georgia
beats LSU, Oklahoma beats Oklahoma St., Baylor beats Texas & jumps
Michigan) and Detroit picks Purdue.  Read the LTP article for potential
at-large destinations (seems like San Francisco may be the most likely).
IF this happens (big IF), NU would be poised well to negotiate the best
spot possible, as other available teams would include Illinois (see earlier
notes; they should be somewhat worried about not getting a bid or going to
a bad at-large spot), and a few MAC & Sun Belt teams - also undesirable.

We'll clearly know a lot more come next Sunday afternoon.

Jonathan

--
Jonathan Hodges
Contributor, HailToPurple
Web: http://www.hailtopurple.com/jhodges/
Twitter: @hailtopurple
Email: j-hodges at alumni.northwestern.edu

On Mon, Nov 28, 2011 at 12:21 PM, Mike Nolan <nolan at tssi.com> wrote:

> > I don't see a return trip to the TicketCity Bowl. They won't want a
> repeat
> > visitor. I guess the only way we move up would be if UofM gets into a BCS
> > game, correct? I expect both MSU and Georgia to lose this Saturday and
> > therefore get Michigan into the BCS top 14, so that could happen.
>
> As I understand it, once they get beyond the 4th pick the bowls can
> pick ANY bowl-eligible team from the list, so they could pick any
> of the 6-6 teams over a 7-5 team.
>
> Enough of the bowl predictions have suggested that TicketCity might
> repeat with Northwestern to suggest that the bowl officials haven't
> disabused anyone of that possibility.
>
> That having been said, I think there is a lot of behind-the-scenes
> negotiation between the conferences and the bowls to encourage certain
> teams be selected for certain bowls.
>
> Many Husker fans believe that the Big XII office encouraged one or more
> bowls to pass on Nebraska last year, setting up that godawful rematch
> with Washington.  It will be interesting to see if Missouri or Texas
> A&M get similarly shafted this year.  At least the Big Ten has a policy
> limiting how far the losing team in the championship game can fall.
> --
> Mike Nolan
>
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