[NU Sports] PIGSKIN PICKS - Big Ten preview ...

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

And with the picks slate coming out, it's also time for the Big Ten preview, bowl predictions and preseason SjTop 25 of the year! Let's get it on! :)

SjTop 25 Preseason Poll

1)   ALABAMA – Tide are loaded, angry and have LSU at home – tough to see how they don’t reach the title game
2)   OREGON – Ducks have talent, but will off-field woes and tough schedule block the road back to title game
3)   LSU – Tigers play the two teams ahead of them, so they have a shot as long as they can stay out of the slammer
4)   OKLAHOMA – Sooners should rule weakened Big XII and maybe even squeak into title game
5)   WISCONSIN – With QB woes solved, big bad Badgers the favorites of new Big Ten …
6)   NEBRASKA - … but Huskers won’t be far behind as they enter a new league with a stingy defense
7)   BOISE STATE – If they get by UGa, TCU visits smurf turf and the Broncos could make a run once again
8)   FLORIDA STATE – Are Noles back? Schedule will tell with Oklahoma visiting early
9)   FLORIDA – Talent galore, but can they work together and adjust to new coaching staff?
10) UTAH – Welcome gift for Pac 12? Ducks, Treez off schedule - get by ASU and SC and they win south
11) TCU – Schedule pretty easy until Boise game, so don't count Frogs out of a B(C)S busting repeat
12) TEXAS A&M – Will Aggies finally live up to hype? Or is the Big XII just overhyping teams to make OU look good?
13) MICHIGAN STATE – Can Sparty recapture magic? Or will they fade back to middle of the pack
14) STANFORD – Luck’s still there, but they were overrated last year and are again this year
15) PENN STATE – Don’t sleep on JoePa in Big Ten - aside from Bama game, could win the rest
16) SOUTH CAROLINA – Can Spurrier get back to Atlanta or was that a one-time deal?
17) ARKANSAS – Not a believer in Hogs minus Mallett, but they shouldn't fall off too far
18) TEXAS – Too much talent to forget about, especially now that they have their own network (ugh!)
19) VIRGINIA TECH – Always a contender in ACC, especially with the way the rest of the league is going
20) OKLAHOMA STATE – Like ATM, need to live up to hype and win a big game in the not-so-Big XII
21) OHIO STATE – Down, but too much talent to be out entirely - playing may be their escape
22) NOTRE DAME – Back? Not quite, but sked is very easy once they get past the Big Ten teams
23) AUBURN – Can champs repeat without a hired gun? Or will investigators finally catch up to them?
24) USC – Trojans could play spoiler in new Pac 12 even though they can't go to the new title game yet
25) ARIZONA STATE – Is this the year they break through? Erickson better hope so
NEXT FIVE: Clemson, Georgia, Missouri, Northwestern, West Virginia
 
SjT Big Ten Preview
NORTHWEST DIVISION
1) NEBRASKA (10-2 overall / 6-2 in league)
-       Big game: @ Wisconsin (Oct. 1) – You can’t get a much bigger welcome to league play than a game under the lights in Camp Randall against the defending Rose Bowl reps in what could be a preview of the title game in Indy. If the Huskers win this, they just might steamroll through the league like everyone says they will.
-       Stumbling block? @ Michigan (Nov. 19) – Aside from the Badger opener and a game at Happy Valley, most of the big games for UNL are at home, but this trip to the Big House could be a trip-up spot, especially if the Wolverines improve by season’s end and want to finish on a strong note.
-       The prediction: It won’t be the cakewalk everyone says it will be (didn’t they learn from PSU’s entry in 1993?), but the Huskers are the best of the “west” (I refuse to use the STUPID, IDIOTIC division names!) and should make it to Indy with at least 10 wins, and possibly more if they can win on the road.
 
2) NORTHWESTERN (9-3 / 5-3)
-       Big game: @ Iowa (Oct. 15) – The Cats have a huge stretch of three prime time games (two at home against Michigan and PSU with this one sandwiched in between). If they can defend home turf and continue their mastery of the bumblebees under Fitz, it could be a special year for Persa and the purple.
-       Stumbling block? @ Illinois (Oct. 1) – Before the Cats get to that huge three-game stretch, they have an early game against their in-state rival in Champaign. A slip up to the Illini could start an October slide, but hopefully NU won’t overlook the orange and blue after last year’s game in Wrigley.
-       The prediction: The schedule is set up for NU to surprise some teams, and if OSU was still – THE – OSU, I might like the Cats for a sleeper pick for Indy … but that three-game stretch in October is tough and November games with UNL and MSU will probably prove too much for a division title. An early test at BC could also be troublesome, but as long as Persa’s healthy, NU has a chance.
 
3) IOWA (9-3 / 5-3)
-       Big game: @ Nebraska (Nov. 25) – The scheduling gods were favorable to the Hawkeyes as well this year, with no Wisconsin on the slate and a visit to Happy Valley (where the Hawkeyes fare pretty well) being the only tough road test before this one. If they can solve their NU problem and defend home turf in November against Michigan and MSU, the season-ender in Lincoln could live up to the hype as this natural rivalry finally comes into bloom … like an ear of corn.
-       Stumbling block? @ Purdue (Nov. 19) – The home game vs. Northwestern will be one Ferentz focuses on, but this is a doughnut game in between Senior Day vs. Sparty and the big trip to Nebraska, so Ross Ade could be a trap game.
-       The prediction: Ferentz’ teams are always best when expectations are low … throw in a kind schedule and Iowa will be in the mix for Indy right until the final week.
 
4) MICHIGAN STATE (8-4 / 4-4)
-       Big game: @ Ohio State (Oct. 1) – The schedule is brutal for Sparty (South Bend, Columbus, Lincoln and visits from rival Michigan and favorite Wisconsin in a six-game span!) and getting off to a good start in the league opener against a depleated Buckeye squad is essential if they have any legitimate title hopes.
-       Stumbling block? @ Northwestern (Nov. 26) – The road schedule in particular is harsh for Sparty (South Bend, Columbus, Lincoln, Iowa City and Evanston), and the term Sparty Slide exists for a reason, so if MSU gets some bad bounces from their tough schedule, they may not show up for the finale at NU and it could make the difference between a good bowl and a mediocre one.
-       The prediction: Sparty has some talent back from last year, but the magic sure looked gone after they failed to show up in Orlando against Bama. The deck is stacked against them for a repeat with that schedule and I’m not sure they have the mental toughness to come through in the clutch again.
 
5) MICHIGAN (8-4 / 4-4)
-       Big game: vs. Notre Dame (Sept. 10) – Big Blue’s first chance to announce they’re back will come in front of the national audience against the Irish, who also would like to trumpet their return. In reality, the Irish are the only thing standing between Michigan and a 5-0 start (all games at home), so it’s a must win for Hoke.
-       Stumbling block? @ Illinois (Nov. 12) – The Wolverines finish the season with two huge home games against Nebraska and Ohio State, but they start 5-0, split the road trip to NU and MSU after that and get on a roll at 8-2 or 9-1, they may overlook their trip to Champaign while planning a big finish.
-       The prediction: The Wolverines should be a factor in the league race (and may even finally beat the Buckeyes), but will probably drop a game they shouldn’t along the way with the adjustment to the new coaching staff. They’re on the right track, but not quite there yet.
 
6) MINNESOTA (4-8 / 1-7)
-       Big game: vs. Illinois (Nov 26) – With a home slate that includes Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin (ouch!), it’s really their best shot at a league win.
-       Stumbling block? vs. New Mexico State (Sept. 10) – The Gophers could get smacked around on their trip west to USC, and if they mope around, they may drop one of their three non conference cupcakes at home.
-       The prediction; The only thing that’s for sure in the northwest division is that the Gophers will finish last. They have a coaching change, lots of turnover on defense and too many tough games to have a legitimate shot at a bowl berth.
 
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
1) WISCONSIN (11-1 / 7-1)
-       Big game: vs. Penn State (Nov. 26) – The Husker opener is huge, but the Nittany Lion home finale may be more important when it comes to determining who gets to Indianapolis.
-       Stumbling block? @ Michigan State (Oct. 22) – The schedule is pretty nice for Bucky with the exception of back-to-back road games at East Lansing and Columbus to end October. Sweep them and they could run the table … the OSU one may get the hype after last year’s game, but the one at MSU could be the tougher one for the Badgers.
-       The prediction: Wisconsin has all the elements there for a return to Pasadena or even more – they’ll be hungry after last year’s loss to TCU, they’ll be angry after all the hype about Nebraska being the clear favorite, they’ll benefit big-time from OSU’s demise and the schedule brings their biggest threats to Camp Randall. The Smug Smirk of Bielema is smelling Roses again.
 
2) PENN STATE (9-3 / 6-2)
-       Big game: vs. Nebraska (Nov. 12) – Before closing out the year at The Shoe and Camp Randall (a daunting task that got a bit easier over the summer), the Lions host the Huskers … and JoePa rarely loses on Senior Day. The rest of the schedule is manageable – save for a visit from Alabama and Slick Nick – and if the Lions can protect home turf, that season finale in Madison should be for Indy.
-       Stumbling block? vs. Iowa (Oct. 8) – Just like the Hog-eyes have a mental block with the Wildcats, so it is with JoePa and Iowa. Aside from the Bama game, this is their only major hurdle before November.
-       The prediction: Everyone is overlooking PSU, and an early loss to Bama will probably continue that heading into the Big Ten season – but they are the team most likely to break the red-and-white stranglehold on Indianapolis. They have most of the D back along with an experienced QB and a breakout-star wideout in Moye, who may be the best offensive player in the league. Outside from the Alabama game, the schedule is back-loaded, so look for a surge to the finish from Joe Pa that should end with a dandy of a finale in Madison.
 
3) OHIO STATE (7-5 / 4-4)
-       Big game: @ Michigan (Nov. 26) – Let’s be honest, the Buckeyes won’t be playing for a Big Ten title this year – they’ll be playing to survive. Which means that for the first time in ages, their fans will have to sweat out the Michigan game to see if the season can be classified as a good one.
-       Stumbling block? @ Illinois (Oct. 15) – With games at Miami and Nebraska and a visit from MSU, the Bucks could be 3-3 at midseason with a home date against Wisconsin on the horizon – if they overlook their trip to Illinois, that could be a 3-4 team heading into the Badger game and things could go from bad to worse.
-       No one will be shedding any tears for the Buckeyes or their fans this year as they take their lumps – though it does kind of suck that Tressel and Pryor aren’t there to take them with the team. There’s still a lot of talent in Columbus, and they could rally with an “us against the world” mentality for 8 or 9 wins, but with a brutal schedule (the good news is that they’re in the weaker division, the bad news is that they still play three good teams from the stronger one), the more likely scenario is that the losses start to steamroll as the weight of the scandal and pressure crashes down on The Shoe.
 
4) PURDUE (6-6 / 3-5)
-       Big game: vs. Notre Dame (Oct. 1) – The Boilers have a week off before the Notre Dame game and the Irish are their only obstacle from a 5-0 start, which is key if they hope to get back to a bowl.
-       Stumbling block? vs. Illinois (Oct. 22) – I hate to keep having the Illini in this spot, but Purdue should be 5-1 (or at worst 4-2) at the midpoint of the year and about to embark on a stretch that takes them to Ann Arbor, Madison and back home to face OSU and Iowa – they might forget about the orange and blue and that could cost them.
-       The prediction: The Boilers have shown spunk under Coach Hope the last two years, but haven’t had the consistency – even after that breakthrough win against OSU. This year will probably be another where they lose a game or two they shouldn’t yet knock off a big boy or two. As long as they take care of business at home and in the non conference slate, they should at least go bowling.
 
5) ILLINOIS (6-6 / 3-5)
-       Big game: vs. Arizona State (Sept. 17) – Like Michigan, the Illini have their first five games at home, so if they can beat their rivals from Evanston and the spunky Sun Devils, they could be 6-0 at the midway mark (their first road game is at Indiana).
-       Stumbling block? vs. Northwestern (Oct. 1) – The Cats will be gunning for Illinois and could derail that big start.
-       The prediction: Things are set up for a fast start in Zookerland, and with the Huskers, Hawkeyes and Sparty off the schedule, things look good for a return to the bowl scene … but the defensive holes and Zook’s history of yo-yo records have me skeptical.
 
6) INDIANA (3-9 / 0-8)
-       Big game: vs. Purdue (Nov. 26) – With Minnesota off the schedule, it’s their best chance for a league win.
-       Stumbling block? @ North Texas (Sept. 24) – A sweep of the non conference slate is crucial to any bowl hopes, and the game in Indy vs. Ball State and home date with Virginia (would be a better soccer match) are trap games, but this one sticks out even more.
-       The prediction: Like Minnesota, the Hoosiers are the clear cellar dweller in their division and will have to be perfect and get a couple upsets to even sniff the postseason. But Kevin Wilson is capable of pulling off a shocker or two – just not enough for IU this year.
 
Big Ten/B(C)S Bowl Projections
TITLE: Alabama vs. Oregon – They seem like the two to beat and are a bit above the rest of the top 10 ... both have LSU as their major stumbling block, and the Tigers may be on the verge of self destruction
ROSE: Wisconsin vs. Stanford – Back to tradition in Pasadena? Not sure the Pac 12 can earn a double berth, but the Treez benefit from not losing at Oregon in the title game (like Utah will) and having Notre Dame to close out the season, where they can make their case that they belong instead of the overhyped Irish (plus the Rose got their mid-major out of the way last year).
ORANGE: Florida State vs. West Virginia – The Po’ Bobby Bo’? Someone has to play in front of 50,000 empty seats in Miami
SUGAR: Louisiana State vs. Texas A&M – If ATM lives up to the hype for once, Boise State may get passed over here in favor of matching up future SEC foes for a sellout in New Orleans
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Nebraska – The Big XII destroyed this rivalry - and its own league - but the folks in Arizona bring it back by welcoming the Big Red fan base to the desert over Boise fans who have been here more recently
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CITRUS: Penn State vs. Florida - JoePa gets another crack at the SEC, where he has fared well in the past
OUTBACK: Iowa vs. South Carolina - The Hawkeyes always get better by January, whereas Spurrier's SC teams do the reverse
GATOR: Northwestern vs. Georgia - Cats and Dogs should make for a fun offensive showcase in Jacksonville
INSIGHT: Michigan vs. Oklahoma State - If Texas falters, this could be a dream big-name matchup for the Phoenix bowl
TEXAS: Michigan State vs. Missouri - Two programs that just can't seem to break through to that next level
TICKET CITY: Illinois vs. Kansas State - Lots of points in this New Year's opener and some big-yardage plays, too
MOTOR CITY: Purdue vs. Miami - Even with two B(C)S teams, the Big Ten may need its full allotment this year
 
Don't forget the Pigskin Picks slate - due by THURSDAY!
Enjoy the season and GO CATS!!!
-SjT
 
 
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STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!! GEAUX SAINTS!!!
Super Bowl XLIV Champions!
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