[NU Sports] Big Ten home stretch ...

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

I needed something to take my mind off today, so I started looking ahead to what should be a wild final five weeks in the Big Ten race this year ...

SURE BETS FOR BOWLS: Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
PROBABLES: Michigan, Penn State, Illinois, Northwestern
NEED HELP: Purdue, Indiana
OUT OF IT: Minnesota

Here's a look team-by-team with bowl projections ...

ILLINOIS (4-3)
- Home games: Purdue, Minnesota
- Away games: Michigan, Northwestern, Fresno State
- Key game: Purdue - with the Gophers at home a probable win, beating the Boilers at home would be the bowl-eligible clincher and then the three road games can determine where
- Projection: 7-5, Dallas Bowl vs. Oklahoma State (orange everywhere!)

INDIANA (4-3)
- Home games: Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State
- Away games: Wisconsin, Purdue
- Key game: Northwestern - The PSU game is really a road game in DC, so beating the Cats at home in Bloomington is the best shot for IU to head into the Bucket game with bowl hopes
- Projection: 4-8

IOWA (5-2)
- Home games: Michigan State, Ohio State
- Away games: Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota
- Key game: Michigan State - The Hawkeyes had control of their destiny, but blew it in those mismanaged final seconds against Wisconsin ... the good news is that they still have OSU and MSU at home, but the bad news is that they need a lot of help and that out-of-conference loss could come back to haunt them with OSU, MSU and Wisky all having clean September slates.
- Projection: 9-3, Outback Bowl vs. LSU (rematch of classic Citrus Bowl)

MICHIGAN (5-2)
- Home games: Illinois, Wisconsin
- Away games: Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State
- Key game: Illinois - Like Northwestern, the Wolverines had a back-loaded schedule and need to pick up that sixth win sooner rather than later to avoid the pressure building - home against the Illini is key, as then the road games at PSU and Purdue can be for placement.
- Projection: 7-5, Gator Bowl vs. Florida (big names to fill seats)

MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)
- Home games: Minnesota, Purdue
- Away games: Iowa, Penn State
- Key game: Iowa - Sparty is essentially playing for the Rose Bowl here, as it's unlikely they'd lose two of the last three ... but a loss in Iowa opens up all sorts of 3-way tie scenarios that would leave MSU at the mercy of B(C)S rankings with OSU and Wisky losing earlier ... but win at Iowa and the road gets clearer
- Projection: 11-1, Citrus Bowl vs. South Carolina (couldabeen bowl?)

MINNESOTA (1-7)
- Home games: Ohio State, Iowa
- Away games: Michigan State, Illinois
- Key game: Illinois - Let's be honest, it's really their only shot at a league win left
- Projection: 1-11

NORTHWESTERN (5-2)
- Home games: Iowa, Illinois
- Road games: Indiana, Penn State, Wisconsin
- Key game: Indiana - The Cats need to shake off the big homestand of heartbreak and get win number six ASAP, as the Illinois game is not really a home game and the win will be tougher to pick up the later it gets. Win against the Hoosiers and the PSU and Illinois game are for placement.
- Projection: 7-5, Insight Bowl vs. Kansas State (purple paradise!)

OHIO STATE (7-1)
- Home games: Penn State, Michigan
- Away games: Minnesota, Iowa
- Key game: Iowa - The Bucks should be able to handle the Nits and Wolverines at the Shoe, leaving Iowa as the big road test. Win that and they have a good shot at a B(C)S bowl and maybe even a return to Pasadena.
- Projection: 11-1, Sugar Bowl vs. Alabama (the real title game?)

PENN STATE (4-3)
- Home games: Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State
- Away games: Ohio State, Indiana
- Key game: Michigan - The pressure will be on with JoePa's quest for 400, but the next two games at home with Michigan and NU will tell whether PSU gets to a bowl or not, with the home crowd, they could get the wins and jump into January 1 contention here
- Projection: 7-5, Texas Bowl vs. Texas (big names fill seats)

PURDUE (4-3)
- Home games: Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana
- Away games: Illinois, Michigan State
- Key game: Michigan - The Boilers really need to beat either the Illini on the road or the Wolverines at home to have any bowl hopes, but their offense is sputtering and it's tough to see them getting those
- Projection: 5-7

WISCONSIN (7-1)
- Home games: Indiana, Northwestern
- Away games: Purdue, Michigan
- Key game: Michigan - With the Cats and Badgers usually winning at home in that series, the Wolverines are really the only speed bump left in Wisconsin's season. Win there and it's an 11-win season that closes on a big-time roll
- Projection: 11-1, Rose Bowl vs. Utah - so, if Boise State makes it to the title game, does that mean the Rose still has to take a small school to replace Oregon? If not, then Auburn goes here. Otherwise, Utah gets a look at what it will be playing for now, so at least it's not quite as sacrilegious as if TCU or Boise gets into Pasadena! :)

The BCS BOWLS ...
* Title: Oregon vs. Boise State - I hope, but fear Bama will sneak in
* Rose: Wisconsin vs. Utah - Red Dawn and an intriguing matchup
* Sugar: Alabama vs. Ohio State - The real title game?
* Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Syracuse - Someone has to win the Big Least
* Orange: Auburn vs. Florida State - Used to be a great southern rivalry

GO CATS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!! GEAUX SAINTS!!!
Super Bowl XLIV Champions!
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