[NU Sports] 17+ point leads

[Jonathan Hodges]

In case anyone wants further stats on Fitz's performance in the fourth
quarter, feel free to check out the commentary I wrote at HailToPurple
following the loss to MSU: http://hailtopurple.com/jhodges/comment10j26.html

In the article, I look at how Fitz's teams perform in the 4th quarter,
particularly tied or with the lead, and compare him to Walker.

Some stats of note (all numbers were as of the conclusion of the MSU game):

Have been tied or had the lead in the 4th quarter:
Fitz: 71.9% (despite only being favored 47.4% of the time).
Walker: 52.4%

4th quarter cumulative point differential margin per game:
Fitz -1.54
Walker -0.54.

Winning rate when NU enters the 4th quarter with the lead:
Fitz: 72.7%
Walker: 86.2%


Why?
- Lack of a consistent running game
- Conditioning
- Coaching Inexperience
(read the linked article for further details)


I think many of this definitely applied to the PSU collapse.

One more stat to think about.  Over the past 2 years vs PSU, combined;
First Half Scoring: NU 34 - PSU 17
Second Half Scoring: NU 0 - PSU 52

Jonathan


On Mon, Nov 8, 2010 at 8:40 AM, Tom Maycock <tkmaycock at yahoo.com> wrote:

> > What happened at PSU is  that Joe Pa's team got a little glimmer of hope
> > at the end of the first half  and got the crowd back in the game.
>
> I know it depressed the hell out of me.
>
> I really thought the coaches did a poor job there by going into a much
> softer
> defense, which allowed PSU to find some time and some rhythm. That said,
> there
> was some really poor tackling on at least one key play, which really
> undermined
> the "play it safe, keep it front you" approach.
>
> > I also agree that Vaughn  going down was huge, but that's what the game
> > is about.  You have to  adjust and play in the moment. The pressure we
> > had on the QB in the first  half was gone.  The ability to stuff the run
> > that we had in the first  half evaporated.  The three and outs from the
> > offense helped wear our D  down.  The short punts put even more pressure
> > on our D.  Finally,  penalties put the whole team in a hole that they
> > never seemed to be able to  get out of.
> >
> > The first half demonstrated how good this team can be.   The second half
> > demonstrated how much more work the coaching staff has ahead  of them.
> >
>
>
> Yep. It was really unfortunate that just when PSU was starting to manhandle
> the
> Cats at the line of scrimmage, NU made things worse by starting to commit
> all
> sorts of unforced errors: penalties (after a very clean 1st half), the bad
> punts, the Simmons indecision at the goal-line. All those things dug the
> hole
> deeper.
>
> And in the "half full/half empty" category, even when PSU was rolling, we
> had a
> bunch of shots at tackles-for-losses that could have killed drives and
> turned
> the tide, but those tackles were missed. A lot of credit to some talented
> PSU
> running backs, but disappointing to see them do everything right on many
> plays--the right call, the right reads--but then fail to wrap up.
>
> It should also be noted that there's a reason JoePa has racked up 400 wins,
> has
> an incredible W-L record in bowl games, and has run the table on several
> occasions: he's as good as it gets, and he attracts and keeps top-caliber
> assistants. We know better than anyone how good Vanderlinden is. He could
> easily
> be a great DC for a lot of teams, but has chosen to remain as "just" an
> assistant on that staff. Consider how devastating the linebacker play was
> in the
> 2nd half.
>
>
> Tom
>
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