[NU Sports] Big Ten Expansion this week?

[Jonathan Hodges]

The 16 team super-conference seems like the rumored long-term route of
choice (especially after the Pac 10 expansion rumors that would take them to
16), but I am highly doubtful that we'll actually see this.  So far, no BCS
conference has gone above 12 teams, and mid-major conference attempts at
doing so haven't worked out well (the WAC went to 16 in the 90's and was
quickly split apart when the MWC broke off; also, the MAC currently has 13
members but isn't on par with the BCS conferences, obviously).

Also, the financial reasons have to be really compelling to go to such a
level of membership; the revenue sharing has to be either the same or more
for current conference members.  I find it difficult to believe that the Big
Ten can find 5 new members not named ND or Texas who can carry their own
weight in terms of increasing revenue.  Nebraska (around which all of the
current rumors are swirling) may fit the bill, but I can't see the Big Ten
throwing 4 others in the mix of the same caliber.  Teddy Greenstein agrees
today in the Trib (he estimates the Big Ten will add 3 - Nebraska, Missouri,
and Rutgers).

Also the ACC and SEC (both currently at 12 members) don't seem eager to jump
into the fold and expand beyond their current numbers.  The SEC has it
pretty good as it is, while the ACC is reeling a bit from their expansion
earlier this decade that wasn't as successful as imagined at the time.
Without them jumping in, the "4 super conference" setup won't happen.

I think the Big Ten is in a solid position, even if ND continues to rebuff.
They've left the door open to go to more than 12 and, therefore, have
everyone else watching their backs (the Pac 10 wants in on the action and
may cause the Big XII to collapse; also, the Big Ten could raid the Big East
and force it to collapse, leaving ND out in the cold for the non-football
sports).

The biggest potential shift I see right now is the Big XII collapsing
(Nebraska and Missouri coming to the Big Ten, and the Big XII South going to
the Pac 10), which is at least somewhat likely.  I think at that point the
MWC would swoop in and scoop up what's left of the Big XII North and maybe
Boise State from the WAC (which they have been talking about doing already),
which would likely allow it to step into the Big XII's old BCS spot
(potentially).  This would actually have a net effect of increasing the
number of teams participating in the BCS while keeping the number of BCS
conferences the same (maybe).

I am doubting that something that seismic will happen, although the rumors
are out there and seem to be legitimate.  We'll see what happens over the
next week or two.

Jonathan

On Wed, Jun 9, 2010 at 9:42 AM, Mike Nolan <nolan at romaine.tssi.com> wrote:

> A number of sources are suggesting that the Big Ten could offer Nebraska
> a seat at the table as early as this Friday.  (Last week's Big XII meetings
> may have set that as a deadline for Big XII schools to commit to the future
> of the conference for something like six years.)
>
> I still think Notre Dame is the big prize, but offering Nebraska an
> invitation might be what it takes for the Irish to commit as well, since
> Nebraska leaving the Big XII is likely to snowball as the other teams in
> the Big XII start looking for good homes.
>
> Some writers have gone so far as to blame Nebraska for this mess,
> forecasting
> the end of the Big XII and the Big East as well as the BCS itself.
>
> The six BCS conferences could realign themselves into four superconferences
> of 16 teams each.  However, that would only include 64 teams and the BCS
> schools (plus Notre Dame) current have 66 schools in football.
>
>
> ACC        12
> Big Ten    11
> Big East    8 (in football)
> Pac 10     10
> SEC        12
> Big XII    12
> Notre Dame  1
>           --
>           66
>
> (The Big East has a total of 17 schools in basketball, but only 8 of
> those play Division I football.)
>
> So, unless some conferences decide to go to something larger than 16
> schools in football, it looks like two schools could be left out of
> the four superconferences.
>
> My guess:  Baylor and Iowa State.  That will not make for happy campers
> in either Texas or Iowa, not to mention the states like Utah where having
> their major football teams be non-BCS members is already a political
> hot potato.
>
> So, another possibility is that the final mix has five or six
> superconferences, which means that the CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, Sunbelt
> and WAC conferences could get reshuffled as well.
> --
> Mike Nolan
>
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