[NU Sports] Pac 10 to invite 6 Big XII schools to join?

[Sportsbiz]

Assuming for the moment that Texas makes the wrong decision and goes to the
Pac-10, I would expect to the offers to go to Nebraska, Mizzou, ND, Syracuse
and Rutgers which would gain some of the homes in NJ, although far from all.
The combination of Syracuse and Rutgers will not achieve the aim of getting
the NYC market, however, since the NYC market is NOT a college football
market and won't be no matter how many area college football programs are
beamed into homes in the boroughs.  Those five are still probably the best
choices, although personally I don't particularly care for adding ND who
should stay with its fellow Catholic institutions in the Big East.

One last point, if, as seems likely, the Big XII implodes leaving Iowa State
with no home, expect intense political pressure on Iowa to get ISU into the
Big Ten, just like the pressure put on UVA to ensure the inclusion of Va
Tech in the ACC raid on the Big East.  Whether that pressure will succeed is
not something I would care to predict.
Mark

On Sun, Jun 6, 2010 at 2:35 PM, <pcw at warnerpatents.com> wrote:

> Some comments have suggested that adding Nebraska would cause a
> significant number of persons outside The Big Ten footprint to subscribe
> to BTN.  Financially, it would be insignificant compared to adding,
> e.g., Rutgers, even if Rutgers would cause no one outside the footprint
> to subscribe.
>
> Nebraska pop: 1,796,619
> New Jersey pop: 8,707,739
>
> Using the US Census data that I provided in an earlier email and SNL
> Kagan (leading cable and satellite industry analyst) subscriber revenue
> data, there are 2.38 persons per household, 81.4% cable/satellite market
> penetration, $0.88/subscriber/month paid to BTN for footprint state
> subscriber and $0.05 non-footprint state subscriber.
>
> Nebraska:    (1,796,619 / 2.38) x 81.4% x $0.88 x 12 mos. = $  6,488,844
> / year
> New Jersey:  (8,707,739 / 2.38) x 81.4% x $0.88 x 12 mos. = $ 31,449,719
> / year
>                                              Difference  = $ 24,960,875
> / year
>
> To make up the difference, Nebraska would need to bring in 41,601,458
> additional subscribers outside of The Big Ten footprint states.
> ($24,960,875 / ($0.05 x 12 mos.) = 41,601,458 subscribers)  I don't
> think Nebraska is that popular.  New York, with its population of
> 19,541,453, would be a differential that is impossible for Nebraska to
> overcome.
>
> As to the comment that New York City and New Jersey will never be
> popular college markets, that is fairly irrelevant.  The number of
> subscribers is what's important.  Outside the footprint states, the BTN
> is part of  higher-tier purchase packages.  (Here in Arizona, it gets
> packaged with a bunch of other sports channels for $6/mo.)  In the
> footprint states, it is part of the basic cable/satellite package or
> bundled with a low-level already-popular sports package.  The BTN would
> end-up in a similar basic or low-level bundled package in NY or NJ -
> Albany (for Syracuse) and Trenton (for Rutgers) will see to that (more
> money for their state universities).
>
>
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