[NU Sports] Basketball So Far

[Sportsbiz]

As optimistic as I am about this basketball team, an optimism which has not
been chilled terribly much by a red-hot shooting St. John's squad, I am
concerned that the patsy schedule will impair our tourney prospects in two
ways.  The first and perhaps historically most disheartening way is that our
strength of schedule going into conference play is so weak that a 9-9
conference will not be enough to make the tournament.  I think we will have
to go at least 10-8 and, as a result, I think we need to split the first
four games, at the very least.  Since we open at Purdue, home to Michigan
State and at Illinois then home with Indiana, realistically we have to take
one of the opening three games.  MSU is starting slow and we get them at
home so it may be our best shot.

That aside, my other major concern is, not surprisingly, the defense.  This
schedule has done well to mask how poorly our defense plays against a
powerful frontline.  We have dissected the 1-3-1 ad nauseum with Juice in
the back but it is still probably our best defense and one the Big Ten
doesn't see very often.  This
article<http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/22/early-warnings-sleepers-contenders/index.html>from
SI, using statistics from
kenpom.com shows us with a defensive efficiency of 110, which is actually
worse than last year's.  While our offensive efficiency is now in the top
10, and a hot shooting night, especially from beyond the arc, can make up
for a lot of defensive lapses, over the course of a long slog of a
conference season, it will catch up with you.  We allow opponents to make
51.1% of their two-point shots, which ranks a sparkling 271st in the country
and this against a schedule that could hardly be considered filled with
potential NCAA tournament teams; in fact it is ranked 295 by kenpom.com.

I'm not throwing in the towel, I'm just hoping Carmody can figure out a way
to coax better defense out of this group, particularly up front.  Whether
that means go away from the 1-3-1 and hope that Luka can handle Big Ten post
players one-on-one or some other type of match-up zone (which I would tend
to prefer), it's imperative that something be done defensively because we
can't rely strictly on three-point shooting and early offense when it's
there and expect to make the tournament.
Mark


-- 
*Mark S. Ament*
sportsbiz at gmail.com
SportsBiz - The Business of Sports
Illuminated<http://thesportsbizblog.blogspot.com>
When it comes to sports, you know it's all about the money
Follow me on Twitter <http://www.twitter.com/msament>


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