[NU Sports] FORTY DAYS OF FOOTBALL: Big Ten Bonus

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

A bonus treat for the second-to-last weekend before the season kicks off!

SjT 2010 BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREVIEW
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It's an exciting year for Big Ten football fans! Not only is the conference about to expand by adding superpower Nebraska, but after last year's bowl season, the respect if finally back for this league as one of the top two conferences in the nation. What does that mean for how things will shake out? Let's get to the predictions ...


1) OHIO STATE (12-0 overall / 8-0 in league games)
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Everything is lined up for the Buckeyes to return to their "home away from home" in the Valley of the Sun to play for yet another national championship, as they did in 2002 and 2006. Everything, that is, except the schedule. Not only do the Buckeyes have their usual national showcase game in September against Miami, but the road takes them to Madison and Iowa City to face their two toughest in-league competitors later in the season.

Fortunately for coach Jim Tressel, Ohio State is loaded at just about every position and has a returning quarterback who's a Heisman favorite in Terrelle Pryor. If Pryor plays like he did in Pasadena against Oregon, it's tough to see anyone beating these guys in the regular season, even in the tough environments of Kinnick and Camp Randall.

* Best case scenario: The Bucknuts make up for the 2006 debacle and host yet another title trophy in Arizona while shutting up SEC fans at the same time.

* Worst case scneario: Road trips to Madison and Iowa City produce one loss and they wind up as a B(C)S at-large selection.

* Postseason pick: National Championship Game vs. Alabama - These two seem to be on a collision course this year that only Iowa and Florida, respectively, can stop.


2) IOWA (11-1 / 7-1)
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If the Buckeyes stumble this year, the stars appear to be aligned for the Hawkeyes to step into their place. They get Ohio State and Wisconsin at home and have the top defensive player, and perhaps defense overall, in the league. If they can solve their pesky Wildcats problem, they could well be 10-0 heading into a mammoth November showdown with Ohio State.

Hawkeye games at the end of the year haven't been the problem under coach Kirk Ferentz (except for those against Northwestern), but they have been known to stumble early, and a road trip to Arizona in September jumps out on the schedule as a big trap date. The Big House could be dangerous in October as well, but they have a bye week before that. If they stay healthy and focused, though, it really should be a 10-0 vs. 10-0 colossal showdown in Iowa City on Nov. 20 for all the marbles.

* Best case: The Hawkeyes get revenge for the OT loss in Columbus last year and beat Ohio State, vaulting themselves into the national title game.

* Worst case: An early loss at Arizona or another loss at Northwestern knock the life out of the OSU showdown and it's back to Florida.

* Postseason pick: Fiesta Bowl vs. Nebraska - It's not Pasadena (thanks to stupid new B(C)S rules) or the game in Arizona a week later, but Hawkeye fans still get to have fun in the sun for a week and have a huge bowl game against their future in-league rivals.


3) WISCONSIN (10-2 / 6-2)
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Aside from a trip to Michigan State, there's really not much standing in the way of a 6-0 start for the Badgers to the season ... but then things get tricky. In consecutive weeks, Ohio State visits Madison and then Big Red takes a trip to Iowa. There are some trap games after that (at Purdue, at Michigan - though the Northwestern game is at home for them), but the year essentially boils down to those eight days between Oct. 16-23 for coach Brett Bielema's Badgers.

Wisconsin will feature the league's top running back in John Clay and a bruising offense that would make Coach Alvarez proud by simply wearing down most of their opponents this year. But I'm not sold that they have the skill position players outside of Clay to get past the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes.

* Best case: Things break right for the Badgers those two weekends in October and they secure at ticket for Pasadena, with a possible upgrade to the title game.

* Worst case: The two-game losing streak to OSU and Iowa adds a third loss in the next game at Purdue and suddenly the Badgers are hoping for New Year's Day again.

* Postseason prediction: Citrus Bowl vs. Auburn - The Badgers return to Orlando, but this time for the big game and a showdown against an up-and-coming Tiger team.


4) PENN STATE (9-3 / 6-2)
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No one in nation has a tougher road this year than the Nittany Lions. Not only do they face THREE of the five B(C)S bowl winners form last year, but they're all on the road. Sending a new quarterback into Tuscaloosa, Columbus and Iowa City is not a good formula to get back to the 10-win mark, but the Lions won't fall too far from the top tier this year as they reload.

For starters, they have a reliable back in Evan Royster, and they also have a tough defense to keep things close most of the time. Also, they don't face Wisconsin or Purdue this year and the other threats (MSU, Northwestern and Michigan) visit Happy Valley. Finally, one of their five road games - the one against Indiana - was moved to Landover, MD, so it will be more of a PSU home game. So if they can keep the new starters from losing hope in those tough road games, it should still be a big season.

* Best case: The Lions pull a huge upset in one of those three road games and get to 10-wins, making them a nice option for a B(C)S at-large selection.

* Worst case: Big losses at Bama and Iowa shatter the confidence of the new quarterback and they drop a couple other games to teams like Michigan or Northwestern.

* Postseason prediction: Outback Bowl vs. South Carolina - The Lions are back enjoying the Florida sun on January 1, this time with an intriguing coaching matchup of Spurrier vs. JoePa.


5) MICHIGAN (8-4 / 4-4)
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Describing the seat in Ann Arbor as being "hot" is understating the case for coach Rich Rodriguez. After two embarrassing seasons on and off the field, the Michigan coach knows that this year is do or die. And while most Big Ten fans may enjoy the schadenfraude of watching the maize and blue slip into irrelevancy, they're too big of a program to be down for long. I think this year will see a big step forward - though that may not be as good of news for Michigan fans as they think, because it means RichRod will still be around (kind of like how Zooker's one good year was actually better for the rest of us because it kept him in Champaign longer!).

The first half of the schedule is certainly set up for a big start if the Wolverines can get by rivals Notre Dame and Michigan State. But things get much tougher at the end of the schedule, with Iowa and Wisconsin visiting Ann Arbor and trips to PSU, OSU and Purdue. This year could see RichRod go down in flames and be out by November ... but I don't think we'll be rid of him that easily and it's going to be a return to respectability.

* Best case: Aside from beating OSU, it would be a 6-0 start to the season and then getting at least two more wins the rest of the way to play on New Year's Day again.

* Worst case: UConn is a tough opener, and Notre Dame is never easy either, so an 0-2 start would have the vultures circling and a bad October with losses to MSU, PSU and Iowa could mean the end of the RichRod error.

* Postseason Prediction: Gator Bowl vs. Georgia - If Michigan gets to 8 wins, they're a lock for January 1 with the new bowl lineup (even if they do lose 4 of their last 6), and a UGa-Michigan game for the brand new Gator Bowl would probably sell more tickets than their last five games combined with the old conference tie-ins.


6) NORTHWESTERN (7-5 / 4-4)
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It's just not easy to dismiss Northwestern anymore, just ask the fans in Madison and Iowa City ... though a lot of folks in the national media still make that mistake. Despite losing their best players on both sides of the ball, Northwestern should be right in the thick of bowl contention again this year as coach Pat Fitzgerald attempts to do something never achieved before at NU - three consecutive bowl appearances. A win would be nice as well, but we'll take getting back to a bowl first.

The worry spot on offense isn't quarterback - where Dan Persa should step in smoothly for Mike Kafka - but running back, where production simply must increase. As for defense, it's the secondary, though the front seven should be pretty solid. The schedule will be another enemy, as nonconference games at Vanderbilt and Rice are no gimmes and the Cats only have five true home games. A strong start is critical, as the November slate is brutal with trips to Happy Valley and Camp Randall, a Wrigley rivalry game with Illinois and a home game against an Iowa team just itching to beat NU.

* Best case: The Cats avoid the September letdown that has plagued them and defend home turf in a big stretch in October against MSU and Purdue to start the season at 8-0, then split the November lineup to finish with 10 wins.

* Worst case: A non conference loss compounds with a Big Ten road loss in the opener at Minnesota to make every game from there out a must-win just to get bowl eligible.

* Postseason Prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Kansas - The Cats join the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes for a week in the Valley of the Sun (one of these years they will finally come down to my neck of the woods!) and get an evenly matched bowl game for once against another energetic young coach who was a heck of a player in his days.


7) PURDUE (7-5 / 4-4)
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Any school looking for tips on how to handle coaching transitions should call West Lafayette ASAP. The basketball program was passed off perfectly from Gene Keady to Matt Painter, and the football handoff from Joe Tiller to Danny Hope seems to have been just as seamless. The first year record was only 5-7, but the second half really showed improvement - including the win over Ohio State - and with a Miami transfer ready to step in at QB, the Boilers should be back in the postseason picture this year.

The schedule is also set up nicely, with no Penn State or Iowa, so if they Boilers can pull an upset opening weekend in South Bend and top Northwestern at home to open the Big Ten slate, they should be 6-0 when they visit Ohio State in mid-October. The big tests will come at home in November, however, as Wisconsin and Michigan visit Ross-Ade Stadium. Split those games and Purdue could be playing in Florida, but drop both and it might be a mid-pack mess for bowl position.

* Best case: Beat ND and NU and go 3-1 in November to finish with 10 wins and play on New Year's Day.

* Worst case: Drop the ND and NU games and stumble to the finish with losses to Wisconsin and Michigan or MSU to finish 7-5 and get to a mid-level bowl.

* Postseason Prediction: Texas Bowl vs. Texas Tech - It won't be Jerryworld, but the Cotton Bowl is still a classic venue and the Boilers and Red Raiders should be an entertaining pairing.


8) MICHIGAN STATE (7-5 / 3-5)
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Sparty blew his chance to be a football power. Two years ago, Michigan was in disarray and it was Big Green who was fighting PSU and OSU for conference supremacy. But last year, the Spartans fizzled after big preseason expectations and with the rise of Wisconsin and Iowa and the possible return of Michigan, it may be back to waiting around for Izzone tickets in East Lansing.

MSU is still too good to fall off the face of the football map like Indiana, and they could upset a team or two, but I just don't see the unity or playmakers to make it through a trying season. They should return to beating the Irish at home and start 4-0, but the league schedule is rough, especially the first two games vs. Wisconsin and at Michigan. Win both and it could be a 6-0 start turning into something special (especially with no OSU on the schedule) ... but drop those and it's another Sparty Slide (TM) with games coming up at Northwestern, Iowa and Penn State the rest of the way.

* Best case: The 6-0 start. If they can knock off the Badgers and Irish in East Lansing and take care of Michigan in the Big House, then Sparty may be back and certainly has a chance at 9 or even 10 wins.

* Worst case: Losing two of the three big games in the first half of the season - vs. ND, vs. Wisky and at Michigan - would be devastating and could leave them fighting for a bowl bid.

* Postseason Prediction: Motor City Bowl vs. Northern Illinois - Sparty gets to stay close to home and at least is going bowling, but that's about the only silver lining.


9) MINNESOTA (4-8 / 1-7)
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Last year was supposed to be the breakthrough year - new stadium, stars at the skill positions, big recruits ... but it never quite came, though the stadium was lovely. Now the Gophers have to look at an improving league and a lot of holes to fill from last year's seniors. It won't help than an angry USC visits Minneapolis in September, but it would be even worse if the loss results in a hangover that extends to the next two home games against dangerous foes in Northern Illinois and Northwestern.

Things aren't looking up after that, with trips to Madison and West Lafayette followed by visits from PSU and OSU and a trip to East Lansing. By the time the pig is up for grabs against Iowa, fans should be into full hockey season mode.

* Best Case: A 4-2 start (losses to SC and at Wisconsin) is about the best they can hope for, but even then, they gotta beat Purdue or MSU on the road - or PSU, OSU or Iowa at home - just to get bowl eligible.

* Worst Case: A big USC loss spirals into losses to NIU and Northwestern at home and avalanches into 8-game losing streak by the time they travel to Illinois to avoid going 0-for-the Big Ten.

* Postseason Prediction: The chances are slim and none, and slim's on thin ice.


10) ILLINOIS (4-8 / 1-7)
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My favorite Ron Zook quote from Big Ten media day went something like this: "We have a new offensive and defensive coordinator, but things aren't that different." Unfortunately, he's probably right. Memorial Stadium appears to have joined Notre Dame Stadium as a place where good recruits go to die. And it's tough to see the Zooker surviving after this season.

Even if Illinois manages to beat Mizzou, which they haven't with much better teams, and start 3-0, they open the Big Ten season against Ohio State before traveling to PSU and MSU. The Illini teams have seemed to mirror MSU in recent years where a few bad games can spin out of control in a hurry, and if they start 2-4, the schedule does get a bit easier (no Iowa or Wisky) from there, but I don't think they'll stick together through the rough start to make it there. Plus, the final game at Fresno State is a tough road trip.

* Best case: Beat Mizzou to salvage a 3-3 start, then defend home turf against Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota to get a mid-level bowl berth.

* Worst case: Lose to Mizzou, get blown out by OSU, start 2-4 and then lose to Purdue, at Michigan, at Northwestern and at Fresno while also slipping up against Minny or Indiana. Bye, bye Zooker.

* Postseason Prediction: There's a small chance if they can stick together through a rough start as their back half is lighter than most teams, but this is Illinois.


11) INDIANA (4-8 / 0-8)
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I like Bill Lynch, but he is a victim of bad timing. In past years, Hoosier fans were too busy caring about basketball to worry how the football team finished. But now they're noticing the struggles more and he may not get the time he needs to build a solid program in Bloomington. The schedule is unkind as well, as the two most winnable games (Illinois and Minnesota) don't visit Bloomington (Minny's off the schedule altogether).

A 3-0 start is a good possibility, but the Big Ten season opens with Michigan and at Ohio State. And the back half gets brutal after a game at Illinois, with the Wildcats and Hawkeyes visiting, trips to the Badgers and Boilers and a "home" game in Maryland against Penn State. Ouch.

* Best case: Get revenge on Michigan to start 4-0, then beat Arkansas State and win at Illinois to become bowl eligible.

* Worst case: Lose at Illinois and not get a Big Ten win this season.

* Postseason Prediction: Their chances are about as good as their hoops team making the NCAA tournament.


It all gets started two weeks from today!

GO CATS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!! GEAUX SAINTS!!!
Super Bowl XLIV Champions!
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