[NU Sports] Afternoon report & bowl outlook ...

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

Well, not much of a contest in Happy Valley - thankfully the other two big games on in the Swamp and the Evil Empire vs. Spoiled Children game are pretty good. Plus the always-fun Pac 10 game.

So with the game tonight not having any real bowl implications except perhaps who gets to hold on to the sliver of hope longer, let's see how todays's big game in Madison and big upset in West Lafayette changed the outlook ...

THE LOCKS

IOWA: The biggest game on Iowa's schedule may be in mid-November at the Shoe, but for bowl purposes, it might be the game in Happy Valley the week before with PSU and OSU - should the Lions win, the Hawks can lose in Columbus and still hold the tiebreak for Pasadena. Right now, they're BCS bound unless they have a very bad day, and usually that only happens to Ferentz' teams in the first half of the season.

PENN STATE: They're getting healthy and the offense (against mediocre foes, albeit) is looking better. If they survive their road trips to the state of Michigan and hold serve at home against OSU's lifeless offense, they could also be BCS bound with an 11-1 mark.

OHIO STATE: Despite their horrible offense (the big question is whether it's that Pryor is overrated or limited by his coaches), they have the defense to be in every game left and could play big-time spoiler for both PSU and Iowa in November, meaning they still control their fate. More likely, though, it's looking like Florida.

WISCONSIN: The Badgers should be favored to win every game left on the schedule and hence are looking good for a 10-win season and a New Year's Day bowl game. But since they don't get a crack at PSU and lost to the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes already, they need help for anything above Florida.

MICHIGAN: They should to seven wins fine and with their "resurgence" and big name will be a popular bowl pick -- maybe even jumping up to Tampa -- but there are too many big names left to compete for the title. However, with PSU and OSU visiting the Big House, they could also be a major spoiler if the offense is on fire.

THE BUBBLE TEAMS

MICHIGAN STATE: Technically they still control their fate with Iowa and PSU visiting and no OSU, but more likely they're going to be sweating it out to get six or more wins because of those early close losses.  The key game for bowl position is in two weeks at Minnesota.

MINNESOTA: The Gophers have two nearly impossible road games left (@ Columbus and @ Iowa City), but if they take care of business at home against Illinois, San Diego State and a big battle with Sparty, they'll have seven wins and go bowling again.

NORTHWESTERN: The Cats have a decent shot at six, a longshot at seven and absolutely no room for error. They must beat Indiana and Illinois to get to six wins and then hope to steal one at home against PSU or Wisky or on the road in Iowa City ... or else hope we double dip into the BCS.

THE LONGSHOTS

PURDUE: They've been close all year and are coming alive now, but those early losses are going to come back and bite them. They need to steal one at Camp Randall or Ann Arbor and then win out against the Illini, Hoosiers and Sparty to have any hope.

INDIANA: The Hoosiers have the best shot of the three at the bottom because of their 3-3 mark, but like NU they have no room for error. They must beat Illinois and Purdue at home and win at Northwestern to get to six and then steal one at Iowa, at Penn State or vs. Wisconsin ... or hope for a BCS double dip.

ILLINOIS: The Illini seemingly have too much talent to run the table winless in the league, so the rest of the Big Ten teams are hoping that they come alive at Cincy instead of ruining their bowl chances. If they can win their next two tonight at IU and next week at Purdue to get to 3-4 before Michigan visits Champaign, they may be able to sneak back in, though, by beating the Wolverines, Wildcats and Fresno State.

So that would break down something like this ...

B(C)S GAMES

"TITLE" GAME: Florida vs. Texas - The Horns survived their biggest test today and I'm not falling for the tease on the Gators slipping today (they just got some help from the refs to make sure it's not Ole Miss all over again) - and even if they do lose, they canw in out and make it to the title game by beating Alabama, which they will.

ROSE: Iowa vs. Southern Cal - Great defensive battle as 11-1 Iowa beats PSU in the tiebreak (and avoids a rematch) ... or 12-0 Iowa fights for respect after being left out of the title game.

ORANGE: Penn State vs. Virginia Tech - As I discussed yesterday, the Orange has to take the ACC champ and can't just take the Big East champ against hometown Miami, so in order to sell seats, invite those RVs from Nittany Nation to visit South Florida for the winter.

SUGAR: Alabama vs. Cincinnati - The folks in New Orleans have to hate this BCS order thing, as they get stuck with the worst game on paper yet again (though last year Utah pulled the upset ... in a blowout game).

FIESTA: Boise State vs. Oregon - Here's the tough call of the lot. I was all set to have Nebraska here, until they laid an egg against Texas Tech. Miami doesn't travel well and old standby OSU might be there if they beat Iowa, but the Orange lobbies hard for PSU instead ... so they go with a Pac 10 team and give the Ducks a rematch with the Broncos in Phoenix.

CITRUS: Ohio State vs. LSU - I think the Buckeyes lose to both Iowa and PSU, but win a thriller vs. Michigan to stay in Orlando over a team they beat (Wisky) with one more win overall ... should be a great game of two national title-level defenses let down by mediocre offenses.

OUTBACK: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee - Two brash, young, unlikable coaches.

CHAMPS: Michigan vs. Florida State - I'm not sure, but I think Orlando gets to pick ahead of San Antonio this year, so they set up this big-name game of programs headed in opposite directions.

ALAMO: Minnesota vs. Nebraska - The Huskers could rebound to move up, and the Big Ten team depends on who wins that game in Minneapolis in two weeks.

INSIGHT: Michigan State vs. Kansas - Would be better if this were a football/basketball doubleheader.

MOTOR CITY: Northwestern/Illinois/Indiana vs. Central Michigan - We'll see if any Big Ten team gets to that No. 8 slot ... if they do, it won't be much fun in Detroit against a hot quarterback.

We'll see how long it takes before this guesstimate breaks down.:) I'd feel a lot better about the Big Ten getting two B(C)S teams if the Trojans would be able to hang on to a 20-point 4th quarter lead against the Friggin Irish!

GO CATS!!!
-SjT

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STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!