[NU Sports] Bowl Musings

Wed Oct 14 12:10:05 CDT 2009

About Notre Dame, they get an automatic bid if they're in the top 8 and have
at least 9 wins.  They are also in the pool with the rest of the eligible
teams if they're in the top 14 and have at least 9 wins.  We'll have to see
how things play out because if they lose to USC, they'll have a hard time
making up ground against such a weak schedule the rest of the way to get way
up there.

Jonathan

On Wed, Oct 14, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Evans Schoeman <eschoeman at sbcglobal.net>wrote:

> I hate to ask, but where does Notre Dame fit into the BCS picture?  The
> fact that they moved into the rankings on a bye week does not bode well.  If
> they play USC tough on Saturday, even with a loss, that might not be a
> killer for their BCS hopes.  (Sorry, Lou, I don't think that they will get
> into the NC game).
>
> The rest of their season is not the cakewalk that it looked to be at the
> beginning of the year, as Pitt, UConn, and even Stanford could test them.  A
> 9-3 record is not out of the question and could set them up for a BCS bid,
> which would take away one of the conference at-large spots.
>
> Our game Saturday will be huge in setting the rest of the season up.  Four
> years ago we went into E. Lansing as heavy underdogs and gave up a long
> touchdown pass right at the start of the game.  From there on it was all
> Cats, as we hammered Sparty in every way.  Hopefully, history will repeat
> itself this year and take some of the pressure off this team.
>
>  ------------------------------
> *From:* Jonathan Hodges <jonathanwhodges at gmail.com>
> *To:* cherron604 at aol.com
> *Cc:* nwu-sports at tssi.com
> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:50:02 AM
> *Subject:* Re: [NU Sports] Bowl Musings
>
> Here's my current Big Ten bowl projections, but there's obviously a LOT of
> football left to be played:
>
> *Rose Bowl:* Ohio State
> *BCS At-Large:* Iowa
> *Capital One:* Penn State
> *Outback:* Wisconsin
> *Champs Sports:* Michigan
> *Alamo: *Michigan State
> *Insight: *Northwestern
> *Pizza:* Minnesota
>
> *Ineligible:* Indiana, Purdue, Illinois.
>
> The key to getting 8 Big Ten teams in bowls is not really what the teams at
> the top of the conference do (as long as there are a couple of teams with
> 10
> wins, which is quite possible between OSU/PSU/Iowa), but what other
> conferences do.
>
> Out of the 10 BCS bowl slots, there are 6 guaranteed slots to the
> BCS-conference champions, 1 likely that will go to a "mid-major," which
> leaves 3 at-large spots.  The question is: which conferences will send 2
> representatives to the BCS (remembering that there is a 2 team/conference
> cap)?
>
> The SEC looks like a lock to send two.  That leaves two spots.
>
> The ACC teams are already knocking each other off, and the Big East doesn't
> look like they'll have multiple teams near the top, so I'll eliminate them
> from the discussion for now (though the ACC with Miami and VT could get
> back
> into it).
>
> So, it's between the Big Ten, Big XII, and Pac-10 for the final two spots.
>
> Big XII: A lot depends on what happens in the Texas-Oklahoma game (a third
> loss for Oklahoma would make it very difficult for them to get in), but
> there are those teams on the north (Nebraska, Kansas) that could make for a
> second team.  But, it's hard to tell right now.
>
> Pac-10: Hard to tell there, as well, with Oregon surging and USC already
> having lost its usual conference away game even as a huge favorite.
>
> Big Ten: Looks to be in the best shape, but there are still OSU/PSU and
> OSU/Iowa bouts in November.  You never know what will happen.
>
>
> So, the picture isn't very clear right now.  IF the Big Ten can get a
> second
> team in the top 14, they will likely face some stiff competition, but when
> it comes down to fans traveling and spending money, the Big Ten usually
> fares well (the conference has sent 2 teams to the BCS more than any other
> conference).  Based on that I assumed the Big Ten would send two teams.
>
> For NU, a lot of bowl hopes hinge on this MSU game.  Indiana and Illinois
> are win-able games (not gimmes, though), meaning that the MSU game could be
> the difference between 6 and 7 wins.  Just look at 2007 when NU was left
> home at 6-6 (so was Iowa for that matter) since bowl rules required 7-5 or
> better teams be selected before 6-6 teams.  7 wins virtually guarantees a
> bowl bid.  The rest of NU's second half games against PSU, Iowa, and
> Wisconsin look very tough right now, so NU likely needs to win the MSU game
> to get to 7 wins.
>
> Hopefully, if NU can get to 7, I think they can get into the Insight if
> other teams falter down the stretch and end up 6-6 (like Minnesota, who
> still has to face Iowa, PSU, and OSU - and all on the road).
>
> Go 'Cats!
> Jonathan
>
> On Wed, Oct 14, 2009 at 11:04 AM, <cherron604 at aol.com> wrote:
>
> >
> > Do we have a shot at a warm weather bowl ?
> >
> >
> >
> > I ran the most current Sagarin numbers through the schedule, to try and
> > answer a couple of questions.  First, can we get two teams in the BCS ?
> >
> >
> >
> > My rough guess would be 'yes', but a lot depends on two very big games.
> >  First, we need to keep Iowa unbeaten this week when they travel to
> > Wisconsin.  Then second, we probably need Iowa to lose to Ohio State in
> > Columbus on November 14.  Unless the Rose Bowl was feeling very
> sentimental,
> > and took a 2-loss OSU, Wisconsin or PSU to keep up that 'Big Ten
> Tradition'.
> >  Wisconsin might end up highest rated of those three (even though unrated
> > now ?) since their 2nd loss would've been the longest time ago, October
> 17
> > (thereby keeping Iowa undefeated).  And that raises another question -
> would
> > an unbeaten Iowa be passed over for the National Championship game,
> thereby
> > falling into the Rose Bowl ?  And would all of the other BCS bowls pass
> on
> > OSU, Wisconsin and PSU with 2 losses ?  Do two 11-1 teams position the
> > conference better for two BCS berths than a 12-0 team and several 10-2
> teams
> > ?
> >
> >
> >
> > It would appear that we have 4 Bowl 'locks', Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
> > and Penn State, and 2 bowl 'very likely' teams, Minnesota and Michigan.
> >  Minnesota needs 2, and has Illinois and San Diego State at home (as well
> as
> > a possible win against MSU at home). Michigan needs 2, and has home games
> > against Delaware State and Purdue, as well as a road game at Illinois.
> >
> >
> >
> > There would seem to be 3 bubble teams, and we seem to be in that class.
> >  Michigan State seems to have the best path - they need 3, and have
> Western
> > Michigan and the Cats at home (though we have won the last 2 in Lansing),
> > and Purdue on the road.  We need 2, and have Indiana at home and Illinois
> at
> > Champaign (according to today's Sagarin Ratings, we would be 1/2 point
> > underdogs in Champaign, but I am hoping that at 1-8 when we play, the
> team
> > will already have given up on Zook (some are already accusing the team of
> > that now)).  Ironically, Indiana needs 3 wins for bowl eligibility, and
> they
> > have Illinois and Purdue at home, but their best chance for win #6 among
> the
> > remaining games is their game at Evanston (we are only point-and-a-half
> > favorites, according to Sagarin), so it appears that the only way they go
> is
> > to beat us, thereby keeping us home.
> >
> >
> >
> > So we 'should' probably qualify 8 teams.  If we get 2 in the BCS, then
> > number 8 (either us or Indiana) probably gets Detroit.  If we only get
> one
> > in the BCS, then Detroit probably gets their wish with a Spartan home
> game.
> >
> >
> >
> > Certainly we have to steal one of our three late games (at Lansing, host
> > Penn State and host Wisconsin, all probably 10-14 point spreads), as well
> as
> > hold serve against IU and the Illini, as well as hope for 2 in the BCS,
> to
> > hope for anything better than Detroit (and even that is not a guarantee).
> >
> >
> >
> > The Syracuse and Minnesota fiascos are looming larger and larger in this
> > season...
> >
> >
> >
> > Chuck Herron  Tech '85
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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-- 
Jonathan W. Hodges
1237 Emerson St Apt 2
Evanston, IL  60201-3577
(847) 736-2449
jonathanwhodges at gmail.com