[NU Sports] Bowl Musings

[Jonathan Hodges]

Here's my current Big Ten bowl projections, but there's obviously a LOT of
football left to be played:

*Rose Bowl:* Ohio State
*BCS At-Large:* Iowa
*Capital One:* Penn State
*Outback:* Wisconsin
*Champs Sports:* Michigan
*Alamo: *Michigan State
*Insight: *Northwestern
*Pizza:* Minnesota

*Ineligible:* Indiana, Purdue, Illinois.

The key to getting 8 Big Ten teams in bowls is not really what the teams at
the top of the conference do (as long as there are a couple of teams with 10
wins, which is quite possible between OSU/PSU/Iowa), but what other
conferences do.

Out of the 10 BCS bowl slots, there are 6 guaranteed slots to the
BCS-conference champions, 1 likely that will go to a "mid-major," which
leaves 3 at-large spots.  The question is: which conferences will send 2
representatives to the BCS (remembering that there is a 2 team/conference
cap)?

The SEC looks like a lock to send two.  That leaves two spots.

The ACC teams are already knocking each other off, and the Big East doesn't
look like they'll have multiple teams near the top, so I'll eliminate them
from the discussion for now (though the ACC with Miami and VT could get back
into it).

So, it's between the Big Ten, Big XII, and Pac-10 for the final two spots.

Big XII: A lot depends on what happens in the Texas-Oklahoma game (a third
loss for Oklahoma would make it very difficult for them to get in), but
there are those teams on the north (Nebraska, Kansas) that could make for a
second team.  But, it's hard to tell right now.

Pac-10: Hard to tell there, as well, with Oregon surging and USC already
having lost its usual conference away game even as a huge favorite.

Big Ten: Looks to be in the best shape, but there are still OSU/PSU and
OSU/Iowa bouts in November.  You never know what will happen.


So, the picture isn't very clear right now.  IF the Big Ten can get a second
team in the top 14, they will likely face some stiff competition, but when
it comes down to fans traveling and spending money, the Big Ten usually
fares well (the conference has sent 2 teams to the BCS more than any other
conference).  Based on that I assumed the Big Ten would send two teams.

For NU, a lot of bowl hopes hinge on this MSU game.  Indiana and Illinois
are win-able games (not gimmes, though), meaning that the MSU game could be
the difference between 6 and 7 wins.  Just look at 2007 when NU was left
home at 6-6 (so was Iowa for that matter) since bowl rules required 7-5 or
better teams be selected before 6-6 teams.  7 wins virtually guarantees a
bowl bid.  The rest of NU's second half games against PSU, Iowa, and
Wisconsin look very tough right now, so NU likely needs to win the MSU game
to get to 7 wins.

Hopefully, if NU can get to 7, I think they can get into the Insight if
other teams falter down the stretch and end up 6-6 (like Minnesota, who
still has to face Iowa, PSU, and OSU - and all on the road).

Go 'Cats!
Jonathan

On Wed, Oct 14, 2009 at 11:04 AM, <cherron604 at aol.com> wrote:

>
> Do we have a shot at a warm weather bowl ?
>
>
>
> I ran the most current Sagarin numbers through the schedule, to try and
> answer a couple of questions.  First, can we get two teams in the BCS ?
>
>
>
> My rough guess would be 'yes', but a lot depends on two very big games.
>  First, we need to keep Iowa unbeaten this week when they travel to
> Wisconsin.  Then second, we probably need Iowa to lose to Ohio State in
> Columbus on November 14.  Unless the Rose Bowl was feeling very sentimental,
> and took a 2-loss OSU, Wisconsin or PSU to keep up that 'Big Ten Tradition'.
>  Wisconsin might end up highest rated of those three (even though unrated
> now ?) since their 2nd loss would've been the longest time ago, October 17
> (thereby keeping Iowa undefeated).  And that raises another question - would
> an unbeaten Iowa be passed over for the National Championship game, thereby
> falling into the Rose Bowl ?  And would all of the other BCS bowls pass on
> OSU, Wisconsin and PSU with 2 losses ?  Do two 11-1 teams position the
> conference better for two BCS berths than a 12-0 team and several 10-2 teams
> ?
>
>
>
> It would appear that we have 4 Bowl 'locks', Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
> and Penn State, and 2 bowl 'very likely' teams, Minnesota and Michigan.
>  Minnesota needs 2, and has Illinois and San Diego State at home (as well as
> a possible win against MSU at home). Michigan needs 2, and has home games
> against Delaware State and Purdue, as well as a road game at Illinois.
>
>
>
> There would seem to be 3 bubble teams, and we seem to be in that class.
>  Michigan State seems to have the best path - they need 3, and have Western
> Michigan and the Cats at home (though we have won the last 2 in Lansing),
> and Purdue on the road.  We need 2, and have Indiana at home and Illinois at
> Champaign (according to today's Sagarin Ratings, we would be 1/2 point
> underdogs in Champaign, but I am hoping that at 1-8 when we play, the team
> will already have given up on Zook (some are already accusing the team of
> that now)).  Ironically, Indiana needs 3 wins for bowl eligibility, and they
> have Illinois and Purdue at home, but their best chance for win #6 among the
> remaining games is their game at Evanston (we are only point-and-a-half
> favorites, according to Sagarin), so it appears that the only way they go is
> to beat us, thereby keeping us home.
>
>
>
> So we 'should' probably qualify 8 teams.  If we get 2 in the BCS, then
> number 8 (either us or Indiana) probably gets Detroit.  If we only get one
> in the BCS, then Detroit probably gets their wish with a Spartan home game.
>
>
>
> Certainly we have to steal one of our three late games (at Lansing, host
> Penn State and host Wisconsin, all probably 10-14 point spreads), as well as
> hold serve against IU and the Illini, as well as hope for 2 in the BCS, to
> hope for anything better than Detroit (and even that is not a guarantee).
>
>
>
> The Syracuse and Minnesota fiascos are looming larger and larger in this
> season...
>
>
>
> Chuck Herron   Tech '85
>
>
>
>
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