[NU Sports] Bowl Musings

[cherron604 at aol.com]

Do we have a shot at a warm weather bowl ?



I ran the most current Sagarin numbers through the schedule, to try and answer a couple of questions.  First, can we get two teams in the BCS ?



My rough guess would be 'yes', but a lot depends on two very big games.  First, we need to keep Iowa unbeaten this week when they travel to Wisconsin.  Then second, we probably need Iowa to lose to Ohio State in Columbus on November 14.  Unless the Rose Bowl was feeling very sentimental, and took a 2-loss OSU, Wisconsin or PSU to keep up that 'Big Ten Tradition'.  Wisconsin might end up highest rated of those three (even though unrated now ?) since their 2nd loss would've been the longest time ago, October 17 (thereby keeping Iowa undefeated).  And that raises another question - would an unbeaten Iowa be passed over for the National Championship game, thereby falling into the Rose Bowl ?  And would all of the other BCS bowls pass on OSU, Wisconsin and PSU with 2 losses ?  Do two 11-1 teams position the conference better for two BCS berths than a 12-0 team and several 10-2 teams ?



It would appear that we have 4 Bowl 'locks', Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State, and 2 bowl 'very likely' teams, Minnesota and Michigan.  Minnesota needs 2, and has Illinois and San Diego State at home (as well as a possible win against MSU at home). Michigan needs 2, and has home games against Delaware State and Purdue, as well as a road game at Illinois.



There would seem to be 3 bubble teams, and we seem to be in that class.  Michigan State seems to have the best path - they need 3, and have Western Michigan and the Cats at home (though we have won the last 2 in Lansing), and Purdue on the road.  We need 2, and have Indiana at home and Illinois at Champaign (according to today's Sagarin Ratings, we would be 1/2 point underdogs in Champaign, but I am hoping that at 1-8 when we play, the team will already have given up on Zook (some are already accusing the team of that now)).  Ironically, Indiana needs 3 wins for bowl eligibility, and they have Illinois and Purdue at home, but their best chance for win #6 among the remaining games is their game at Evanston (we are only point-and-a-half favorites, according to Sagarin), so it appears that the only way they go is to beat us, thereby keeping us home.



So we 'should' probably qualify 8 teams.  If we get 2 in the BCS, then number 8 (either us or Indiana) probably gets Detroit.  If we only get one in the BCS, then Detroit probably gets their wish with a Spartan home game. 



Certainly we have to steal one of our three late games (at Lansing, host Penn State and host Wisconsin, all probably 10-14 point spreads), as well as hold serve against IU and the Illini, as well as hope for 2 in the BCS, to hope for anything better than Detroit (and even that is not a guarantee).



The Syracuse and Minnesota fiascos are looming larger and larger in this season...



Chuck Herron   Tech '85