[NU Sports] No Olympics for Chicago in 2016

[John Labbe]

I think 4th place is 4th place, but I also think that if you look at the actual vote counts, it's entirely possible that we could have won had we received just about 5 more votes in the first round.

Here are the actual counts:

Round 1: Madrid 28; Rio 26; Tokyo 22; Chicago 18
Round 2: Rio 46; Madrid 29; Tokyo 20
Round 3: Rio 66; Madrid 32

The most striking thing about these numbers is that Madrid gained hardly any extra votes between the first and third round, while Rio gained nearly every extra vote when Chicago and Tokyo were eliminated.  But what if Chicago would have had a slight edge over Rio among those voters who voted for Tokyo and Madrid?  If just 5 fewer voters in the first round had shifted from Madrid to Chicago, then Tokyo would have been eliminated in the first round.  Then suppose the Tokyo voters were split between Chicago and Rio.  That would have eliminated Madrid, and set up the expected Chicago vs. Rio finale.

In the end, I'm afraid that the so-called "deathbed" appeal of Spain's former IOC president, Juan Antonio Samaranch Sr., may have swayed a few voters who stuck with Madrid through all 3 rounds, while everyone else essentially ranked Madrid last.

John

 
On Friday, October 02, 2009, at 10:47AM, "Jonathan Hodges" <jonathanwhodges at gmail.com> wrote:
>The modern pentathlon was the event that was slated to be staged at Ryan
>Field if Chicago would have received the 2016 bid.
>
>I'm not surprised at all - I thought Rio was the sentimental favorite going
>in and would have been surprised if they didn't go far.
>
>Remember that the voting typically doesn't make much sense, especially in
>the early rounds.  I wouldn't say that Chicago was "4th out of 4" because of
>the way the voting is done (they vote in rounds until a city receives more
>than 50% of the vote, otherwise the lowest vote getter is eliminated and
>voting continues).  Cities with strong bids have been known to go out in the
>first round due to international politics and voting promises that make the
>early votes very close.
>
>And in the end, the IOC voting is more about sentiment and politics than the
>strength of bids (in fact, all the analysis focusing on the bid specifics
>was pretty much wasted - all of the cities involved could conceivably host
>the games without major issue - and the voting never comes down to details).
>
>At least we don't have to endure another 7 years of lead-up to the games
>now.
>
>Jonathan
>
>On Fri, Oct 2, 2009 at 10:42 AM, Tom Maycock <tkmaycock at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> > Not particularly NU-relevant, though
>> > Patrick Ryan was one of the
>> > key players in the bid.
>>
>> NU was slated to host an event--forget which one.
>>
>> Although it could have gone either way (i.e. been a bad thing or a good
>> thing for the city on balance), I'm disappointed they didn't get it.
>> Finishing 4th out of 4 is pretty sad as well.
>>
>> Tom
>>
>>
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