[NU Sports] 2nd BCS

[Jonathan Hodges]

On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 4:00 PM, <cherron604 at aol.com> wrote:

>
> Do we have any hope now of landing a 2nd BCS entrant ?
>

Yes, the Big Ten actually has a good chance.

There are 4 BCS at-large spots.  One will go to a mid-major: TCU or Boise
State, whoever is left with the highest BCS ranking.  There is NO WAY a
second mid-major gets a BCS bid if the bowls have any choice in the matter
(they likely will have multiple options available to them - the requirement
is a team must be in the top 14 and have 9 or more wins).  The reason is
money, and the bowls don't care how much you or anyone else whines about it,
all they care about is getting people in the seats and
hotels/restaurants/etc.  Big name teams do that better than "mid-majors" no
matter how their records compare.

The second BCS spot is virtually guaranteed to go to the SEC Championship
Game loser (Sugar Bowl is likely destination for them).

For the final 2 spots, though, things get a bit more complicated.

The Big XII looks like it'll be out of the picture (Oklahoma State is the
only team in the discussion and they're behind some others in the rankings),
as will the Big East (since West Virginia, Pitt, and Cincy all play each
other over the next four weeks, essentially knocking all but one out of the
upper echelon).  Note that I assume that nothing crazy happens (like Texas
losing in the Big XII championship game and stealing an at-large spot).

The ACC already has Miami (FL) in the top 14 and, assuming GT wins the ACC
title game, should remain in the mix.  The Pac-10 has Oregon, USC, and
Arizona - although there is a lot left to be resolved on the field.

But the Big Ten may be in the best position of all conferences, with Penn
State and Wisconsin sitting at 8-2 with 2 win-able games each left on the
slate (yes, I know Wisconsin still plays NU) - they are currently #18 and
#20 in the BCS, respectively, and have a great chance to move up.  Also,
there's Iowa (currently #10) and assuming they lose to OSU, don't drop too
far, and beat Minnesota to finish the year, they could be sitting at 10-2
and would also be available and if they make the top 14 would be one of the
most attractive choices of all.

So, as long as crazy events don't transpire (like Texas or Georgia Tech
losing in their conference championships or Penn State/Wisconsin/Iowa losing
to teams they should beat down the stretch), the prognosis is good for the
Big Ten getting 2 bids.  We'll know a lot more after each week's games
though (and there are 2 to go for most Big Ten teams and 4 for everyone
else).

Jonathan