[NU Sports] Standings and BT tourney seedings

[John Labbe]

I don't think we had a chance at the 5th seed, but PSU's win does simplify things a bit.  At this point, if we assume that Wisconsin will beat Indiana (at Wisconsin) then the analysis boils down as follows:
1) If we beat Ohio State, we'll get the 7th seed and play Iowa in the opening round.
2) If we lose to Ohio State, then we'll get the 9th seed and play the loser of the Michigan/Minnesota game in the first round.

If you're trying to figure out which teams to pull for in the Indiana/Wisconsin and Michigan/Minnesota games, you should definitely pull for Indiana over Wisconsin (if we beat OSU) because then we could get the 6th seed and play Indiana in the first round (who would, of course, be coming off a big win at Wisconsin, so maybe we have to watch what we wish for).  The outcome of the Michigan/Minnesota game can't affect our seed, but it will affect who we play in the first round if we lose to Ohio State.  Because I like our chances against Michigan better than Minnesota, I think we should pull for Minnesota.

Breaking it down in a little more detail, if we beat Ohio State on Sunday, we will finish in a tie for 5th, 6th, or 7th place in the Big Ten, depending on the outcomes of the Michigan at Minnesota and Indiana at Wisconsin games.

However, if I correctly understand the tie-breaker rules for the Big Ten tournament, we can't get the 5th seed.  If we beat Ohio State and Wisconsin beats Indiana, we'll get the 7th seed, but if Indiana beats Wisconsin (unlikely) we would get the 6th seed.  The outcome of the Minnesota/Michigan game turns out to be irrelevant for determining our seed.

If we're the 7th seed, we'll play Iowa in the first round.  If we're the 6th seed, we'll play Indiana in the first round.

Now, if we lose to Ohio State, then the outcome of the Minnesota/Michigan game is relevant.  Either way, we'll be the 9th seed.  If Minnesota beats Michigan, we'll play Michigan in the first round (regardless of what happens between Wisconsin and Indiana).  If Minnesota loses to Michigan, we'll play Minnesota in the first round (assuming Wisconsin beats Indiana, but if Indiana beats Wisconsin (unlikely) and Minny loses to Michigan, the tie-breaker for the 6-7-8 seeds would get complicated and depend on the outcome of some other games).




On Friday, March 06, 2009, at 11:32AM, <Hakirsch at aol.com> wrote:
>Watching the upset of the Illini by Penn State was incredibly exciting last 
>10 seconds--though I suspect that the win knocks us out for a 5th seed ?
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>Harry
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