[NU Sports] Standings and BT tourney seedings

[John Labbe]

I think my original analysis holds up, but the tie-breakers are actually a lot more complicated than I had assumed.  Also, I've been assuming that Penn State will win one of its last two games (against Illinois and Iowa), but I didn't realize I was making this assumption, and that messes things up a bit.

You can see the tie breakers here: http://bigten.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/archive/120408aae.html

I ran through it in some detail (see below), and I still figure that the highest we can be seeded is 6th.  But, if we beat OSU, the lowest we can be seeded is 7th regardless of what happens in any other games (UNLESS Penn State loses both of its remaining games AND Wisconsin loses to Indiana AND Michigan beats Minnesota--then we would be 8th, but it's very complicated and I'm not 100% sure I've considered all the possible scenarios).

If we lose to Ohio State, all bets are off and we will get the 9th seed.

So, assume we beat Ohio State AND assume Penn State wins one of its remaining games and then assume the following scenarios this weekend:

Scenario 1: Wisconsin beats Indiana and Minnesota beats Michigan
Result: 7th seed
Analysis: We end up in a 3-way tie for 7th place with Ohio State and Michigan.  We win this tie breaker.  First, you compare the records of each team against the other two.  We would all be tied at 2-2.  Second, we win because we beat Michigan State, conference champion, and neither OSU nor Michigan beat MSU.  See the rules.

Scenario 2: Wisconsin loses to Indiana and Minnesota beats Michigan
Result: 6th seed
Analysis: We end up in a 3-way tie for 6th place with OSU and Wisconsin.  We win this tie-breaker with a 3-1 record against OSU and Wisconsin.  

Scenario 3: Wisconsin beats Indiana and Minnesota loses to Michigan
Result: 7th seed
Analysis: We end up in a 4-way tie for 6th place with OSU, Minnesota, and Michigan.  Michigan wins this one with a 4-2 record against the other two teams, and then I think with a 3-3 record we finish second in this tie-breaker (also because we beat MSU and OSU didn't).

Scenario 4: Wisconsin loses to Indiana and Minnesota loses to Michigan
Result: 6th seed
Analysis: This is the craziest scenario.  We would finish in a 5-way tie for 5th place with Wisconsin, OSU, Minnesota, and Michigan.  Turns out that Wisconsin, with a 4-3 record, would win among these teams.  We would be 4-4 among these teams tied with OSU, Minnesota, and Michigan.  I think we then get the next seed, again because we beat MSU.

Now, the big problem with this analysis is my assumption that Penn State will win one of its remaining games (probably somewhat less likely than Indiana beating Wisconsin).  If you assume that Penn State loses one of its remaining games, then we could finish as high as a 6-way tie for 4th place or in a 5-way tie for 5th place (depending on whether Wisconsin beats Indiana).  But in either of those scenarios, I think we get the 7th or 8th seed the way we stack up in those ties.  It would take too much to "show all the math" behind that.  There also difference scenarios depending on the outcome of the Minnesota and Michigan game if PSU loses its last two games.

Bottom line, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.





 
On Thursday, March 05, 2009, at 08:28AM, "John Labbe" <johnl at mac.com> wrote:
>I don't see how we can possibly move up to the top 5 in the Big Ten and get a bye in the first round of the BT tournament.  If someone can figure out that scenario, let us know.
>
>But if we can beat Ohio State on Sunday, we have a great shot of moving into the 7th seed, which would mean we would play Iowa in the first round and then Illinois in the quarter-finals, instead of playing either Michigan or Ohio State in the first round and Michigan State in the second round.
>
>Someone posted similar analysis over the weekend, but I think Minnesota's win over Wisconsin last night slightly changed the analysis.  Now we want Minnesota to beat Michigan (at Minny) on Saturday (to avoid a 3-way tie with Minny and UM at 6th, which I think we lose and end up 8th).  Then we just have to beat Ohio State, and I think we end up with the 7th seed.
>
>In theory, I think we could also move as high as 6th, but that would require Indiana to beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin.
>
>Thoughts?
>
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