[NU Sports] SjT Big Ten Preview / Preseason Top 25 ...

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

OK, school starts next week in Arizona, so before heading back, I thought I'd get these out. Pigskin Picks info should be coming by the end of the month! Enjoy ...

SjT BIG TEN PREVIEW
===================

It’s almost here! The media days have taken place, the first practices are about to begin and baseball is mired in yet another summer of steroid scandals and “why bother?” shrugs from small market fans as the playoff teams appear to, once again, be those with big market bucks. But don’t reach for that clicker and turn to golf, cars going in circles or “extreme” skateboarders in a desperate search for sport-like programming … football season is here!

And with the oncoming kickoff of the greatest season of the year, it’s time for another look at the Big Ten and who will edge ahead in that race for Pasadena (and no, it’s not Boise State). The 2009 season may appear to be a flashback to older times for many fans as the league can once again be referred to as the “Big Two” – except that instead of Michigan, it is Penn State who has become a legitimate rival to Ohio State for the top spot.

But that characterization would also be a bit unfair to the programs “bubbling under” who are ready to breakout. A better comparison for 2009 Big Ten football might be the 2008-09 Big Ten basketball season. The league won’t get much respect nationally because of a few years of postseason slump … like the hardcourt Big Ten, we’ll get a small mention for a couple teams on top and there will be a clear cellar dweller (same team), but there will also be an underrated horde of quality and improving teams in the middle who won’t get much notice during the season, but will show their strength in the postseason and be ready to usher in a resurgent era next year. But just like in basketball, most of the national media probably won’t catch on until late in the year and then finally realize that losing a road game in this league (as long as it’s not in the state of Indiana) is not an indictment against the team’s bowl worthiness. I’ll certainly
 put the Big Ten’s middle tier against any other league in the country and it may look like massive mess of 4-4 league records at the end, but it will be much more than that.

So without further delay, to the Sit Big Ten predictions for 2009 …  

1) PENN STATE (8-0 in Big Ten / 12-0 overall)

The Nittany Lions had two bad quarters last year – the fourth in Iowa City and the second in Pasadena – otherwise they were a fun team to watch and a dominant one on both sides of the ball. A bit of the speed is gone at wideout, but the Lions have the best backfield in the Big Ten with quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster. As an added bonus, the defense should be better with the return of linebacker and field general Sean Lee. The secondary could be a problem, but no one on the schedule will really test PSU vertically. The schedule is also favorable in that the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes both come to Happy Valley. The only thing keeping PSU from a 12-0 year is a mental block road slip up like the Iowa game last year. I hope it comes in Evanston as they look ahead to OSU, but it will more likely come in Champaign against the Illini. If they manage to avoid those Land O’ Lincoln traps and beat the Buckeyes to go 11-0, they won’t lose
 to Sporty for the finale.

* Key game: vs. Ohio State – There is simply no better atmosphere for football than Beaver Stadium under the lights for the Penn State White Out – nothing comes close. So when these two border rivals battle in November, it should be an incredible game with everything on the line. The Buckeyes are pretty much impossible to beat in consecutive years under Coach Jim Tressel, but if anyone can do it, it looks like PSU at home is the one.

* Bowl outlook: Rose Bowl vs. USC. Even if they go 12-0, perceived weakness/league bias will keep PSU headed to Pasadena and a rematch with the Trojans (probably bypassed by a 10-2 SEC team, no doubt) – this one will be close, but SC will be a much better team in January at home than the one we see in Columbus in September. Could be a classic, as Joe Paterno and company won’t want to lose a second straight game to SC.

2) OHIO STATE (7-1 / 11-1)

After carrying the league banner for a few years and getting hammered unfairly by the national press (making two straight title games is a feat – the first one was a bad break injury wise and the second a road game), the Bucks will be tested early and late this year. A September showdown with USC will be built up as a do-or-die respect game for both OSU and the Big Ten and it should be a great game. SC will have loads of talent as usual, but it’s as close as you’ll ever get to a Pete Carroll team “rebuilding” – that’s where Terrelle Pryor’s experience has to kick in and the Buckeyes have to get that “big win” at home. Once they do that, it will be clear sailing through October, as any threats have to come to the Shoe. November is a different story, though, opening with a megamatch in Happy Valley and closing with The Rivalry Game at Michigan. They get the Wolverine game again (closer than expected, though), but fall short at PSU.

* Key game: vs. Southern Cal – The PSU game is more important for the league title, but this is more important for the league overall. Credit the Buckeyes for being one of the few teams who will schedule big games out of league play with the Texas series a couple years back and this USC home-and-home (are you listening, SEC???). The Trojans will be young but loaded as usual – and Pete always has them fired up for the big games in prime time, but something tells me Pryor makes the difference this time.  

* Bowl outlook: Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma. The Buckeyes are BCS bound unless they lose big to USC and PSU. They travel well and draw big ratings. And while they’ve taken heat for their BCS record in recent years, the Sooners have gotten almost a free pass for an even longer losing streak in the big one. This way someone has to win.

3) MICHIGAN STATE (6-2 / 10-2)

Sparty is on the verge again – they’ve been there before only to have a coach leave or suffer some big self-inflicted wound and fall back to the middle of the pack. I think Mark Dantonio is the coach who can finally wake this sleeping giant for good and take MSU to the next level … but it won’t happen quite yet. On paper, it would look like a good year for MSU to make that breakthrough – Ohio State is off the schedule and PSU visits East Lansing. But I think Sparty drops a game before the Land Grant Trophy classic (perhaps at Illinois but more likely at Minnesota) and finishes 10-2 again. They showed a lot of guts in the bowl game last year, so another 10-win season and a bowl win would be a nice improvement. They just have to make sure they don’t slip up early at Notre Dame or against Michigan and lose confidence before the big games arrive later in the year.

* Key game: @ Notre Dame – Michigan State is, by far, the best team on the Irish schedule not named USC. It’s a rivalry and it’s a nationally televised game that a lot of people will be watching. A narrow escape or loss by Sparty could be catastrophic, but a Green and White demolition of an overrated Notre Dame in South Bend not only would quash all that BCS talk for Notre Dame early, but it would give MSU a push for the top 25 and set up a big season.

* Bowl outlook: Citrus Bowl vs. Alabama. Sparty gets a return trip to Orlando and this time needs to come home with the win. The opponent could be Georgia again or perhaps Ole Miss, but more fans and viewers would want to see the Tide and former coach slick Nick Saban face MSU. Those big bad Wolverines won’t be down for too much longer, so Sparty needs to get the big win and set up a breakthrough 2010 now.

4) ILLINOIS (8-4 / 4-4)

There is no greater wild card in the Big Ten race than Ron Zook’s team. They’re the type of team that can win in Columbus one week and slip up against Purdue the next. For years, the recruiting magazines have been telling us that Zook has the best recruiting classes this side of South Bend, so unless the Illini want to earn that reputation Notre Dame has of being a place where great recruits go out to pasture, it’s put up or shut up time for the blue and orange. Can the Illini do it? Absolutely. Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn are the league’s best passing combo and the Illini can score in bunches. But the defense took some hits, even from an underachieving group last year. So the best bet is to expect another wild ride for Illinois fans this year – they are the most likely team to beat Penn State this year, but they could also drop a home game to Michigan or (hopefully) Northwestern. A fast start is essential, as the Illini schedule is front
 loaded this year with Mizzou, OSU, PSU and MSU being four of the first five games. A good start and it could be Roses, a bad start and they’ll quit on Zook, an even split and, well, welcome to Illinois football.

* Key game: vs. Michigan State – I think the Illini will get either PSU or MSU at home this year, but the Spartan game is the one they really need to focus on as a must-win if they want to have January 1 bowl hopes, as losses in Columbus and to the Nittany Lions will be excusable. A loss to Sparty could start a collapse of confidence.

* Bowl outlook: Champs Bowl vs. Clemson – A win over PSU would give the Illini some national attention again and they would make a push for Tampa, but they just don’t bring as many people to fill the seats as Iowa and Wisconsin … hence it’s a trip to Orlando’s second-tier bowl and an obscene amount of orange in the stands with Clemson.

4) IOWA (8-4 / 4-4)

The Hawkeyes seem to be everyone’s darkhorse based solely on being the one Big Ten team to win a bowl game last year – but any of those teams in the running for Tampa probably would have won the Outback Bowl last year, so Iowa just got a lucky draw to avoid facing Mizzou in San Antonio. As for the 2009 team, I just don’t see much hope for a big run. For starters, Shonn Greene (foolishly) bolted early for the NFL, so it’s tough to see who will pick up the slack and actually move the chains for Iowa. The defense will be solid but not spectacular. And then there’s the schedule. Iowa faces road games in Happy Valley, Columbus, East Lansing and Madison. Ouch! Throw in a road game at in-state nemesis Iowa State and you can see it’s going to be tough to break into title contention even if they do sweep their home games. Kirk Ferentz’ teams are usually better in November than September, but all of those road games except OSU come early.

* Key game: @ Wisconsin – No one has a tougher road than the Hawkeyes this year, so that leaves the Badgers and a visit to Camp Randall as the “easy” one. Unless they can break through here, they can’t get more than 8 wins and that still assumes holding on at home against Minnesota and Northwestern.

* Bowl outlook: Alamo Bowl vs. Nebraska – After overreaching last year and heading to Tampa when they should have been in San Antonio, the Hawkeyes head to the Alamo this year for a game that should be a non-conference series every year. The Corn Bowl!

4) NORTHWESTERN (8-4 / 4-4)

Coach Pat Fitzgerald has quietly made improvements in the win column every year in Evanston, but unless another “Purple to Pasadena” type of season comes around, that streak ends this year. Still, Northwestern has shown that they’re not going away – 15 years after the Rose Bowl run, they’re bowl contenders every year. This year’s team will be a bit unusual for NU fans in that it will rely on its defense, especially early. The Wildcats must replace virtually every skill position player on offense, but do have some talent waiting in the wings. But while they start to get a rhythm, it’s up to the Cats’ defense, which should be their best since 1995’s Fitzgerald-led crew. If Corey Wootton can come back from injury close to what he was last year, he should be one of the league’s top pass rushers, and the secondary may be the best in the league. The schedule is favorable for NU, with the first major road test coming in the middle of
 October, but they can’t afford many slip ups early as the slate is backloaded with trips to Iowa and Illinois sandwiched between visits from PSU and Wisconsin in the final four games. If the offense has clicked by then, it could be another 9-win season or better, but more the Cats will lose a game or two they should win to go along with an upset and finish right in the middle of that massive 4-4 pack.

* Key game: vs. Minnesota – the Cats must defend home turf and win the ones they should win to get to 8 wins this year, that means beating the Gophers. The good news is that they get Minny early (they’ll be a much better team by November), but it’s going to be tough. Lose this and you have to make up a win at Iowa or Illinois in November.

* Bowl outlook: Insight Bowl vs. Colorado – Northwestern has actually had six or more wins 5 of the past 6 years – but they can’t get much love from bowls, being left at home twice and getting bypassed in the pecking order the other three years. NU gets the short straw again here (though Phoenix in December is perfect!) with a “Barnett Bowl” against the Buffs to rouse up some interest – the biggest thing is that the Cats need to finally get that bowl W to change the pecking order a bit.

4) WISCONSIN (8-4 / 4-4)

No seat is hotter these days in the Big Ten than the one of Brett Bielema in Madison. He’s pretty much done the reverse of his youthful counterpart Fitzgerald in that UW’s win total has decreased by 2 or 3 each season as fewer of Barry Alvarez’ recruits remain. The coach may stop some of that bleeding this year, but it’s tough to see Bucky breaking through into league title contention. The roster is solid in most places, but there just don’t appear to be many playmakers on offense or defense. John Clay is the hope at running back, but he needs to prove he can be a workhorse in the Wisconsin tradition. Overall, the schedule is favorable. Ohio State is on the road (though Wisky is one of the few teams not intimidated by The Shoe), but key games with Iowa and MSU are at home and Illinois is off the schedule.

* Key game: vs. Iowa – The Badgers must beat the Hawks at home to move into that upper tier of bowls for the Big Ten. Beating Sparty in Madison would be nice, too, but the Hawkeyes are more likely to be competing with Bucky for that final January 1 bowl bid.

* Bowl outlook: Outback Bowl vs. Georgia – Despite a lackluster finish to the year, no one brings fans to bowl sites like the Badgers and Tampa would love to have a red-on-red matchup with Georgia here.

8) MINNESOTA (7-5 / 4-4)

The new stadium should be both a blessing and a curse for Minnesota in their first year at home. The benefits will obviously be bigger in the long run, with a jewel for fans and recruits and a true home-field edge in the elements. But those things take time. In the short term, the new stadium won’t feel like home yet and it will hurt what could have been the league’s best passing attack in Adam Weber to Eric Decker – especially with three of the last four at home in the strange, non-Metrodome elements. Coach Tim Brewster started to prepare Minny with a more ground-oriented attack in last year’s bowl game, but this too will take time. Unfortunately for Gopher fans, the early schedule isn’t kind for all this changeover – Air Force, Cal and Wisconsin are the first three home games and all spell danger for home fans. Throw in road games to OSU, PSU and Northwestern before Halloween and the pumpkin may already be in need of smashing. The future
 looks bright, Gopher fans, but you may have to take a step backwards before taking off in the new era.

* Key game: vs. Michigan State – Most of the Gophers’ big games are on the road this year, so if they get a big win at the new home stadium, it will either be the Cal nonconference game or this one, and a victory over MSU would be far more meaningful. Especially since it comes right after back-to-back trips to Columbus and Happy Valley and they will need a win for their confidence.

* Bowl outlook: Motor City Bowl vs. Central Michigan – Whoever slips to Detroit this year is in danger of facing either Buffalo and a hot coach or CMU and a hot quarterback. Minny might be the best matchup for the fans and you could see a wild shootout.

9) MICHIGAN (5-7 / 2-6)

It’s going to be a very interesting two-year span in Ann Arbor beginning this fall. I have no doubts that Rich Rodriguez, despite his lack of likability, is a smart coach who will bring the Maize and Blue back. I do have doubts, however, that the Michigan boosters will allow him much more time to get them back if he fails to produce a winning record this year – especially if there are three more embarrassing losses to the Irish, Spartans and, worst of all, Buckeyes. The 2009 Wolverines should be better at just about every area, but it’s tough to count on any one area consistently or see anyone that will step up as a rock-solid leader to build around on offense or defense. The result could be an Illini-type season where Big Blue gets an upset win one week and totally blows a game the next week. Whatever the case, it’s still going to be a year before they’re back in a bowl, maybe more if patience with RichRod’s ego runs thin and he gets canned.

* Key game: vs. Notre Dame – If the Wolverines have any hope of making a minor bowl and announcing that they’re back, they need to beat the Irish early on. If they let it slip away at home, they will lament it at the end of the year and fans everywhere may also lament it when a 10-2 Irish team sneaks into the BCS and gets crushed.

10) INDIANA (4-8 / 1-7)

Things are tough in Bloomington these days – there may be some light peeking in at the end of the tunnel on the hardcourt, but over on the football field it’s getting darker. Bill Lynch is nice guy and took over in some tough circumstances, but the program just can’t shake their snake-bitten past. The schedule does start off in typical creampuff fashion and there’s no MSU or Minnesota, but everything is going to have to break right for Indiana to be close to the bowl bubble in November.

* Key game: vs. Wisconsin – Aside from the Bucket game, this is the Hoosiers best chance for a home win in league play and if they can get this and a road win at NU or Michigan, they could sneak into a bowl.  But that’s the rosiest of outlooks.

11) PURDUE (2-10 / 0-8)

Danny Hope has a tough task in West Lafayette, not only is he replacing a legend in Joe Tiller who worked miracles, he must try and do what even Tiller couldn’t – make Purdue into a football school. The Boilers had some solid seasons and one big breakthrough year, but they still couldn’t fill the stadium consistently and once basketball practice begins over in Mackey, fans will be talking about the 2010 Final Four in Indy more than anything over in Ross-Ade Stadium. Making the task tougher? Tiller didn’t exactly leave a full cupboard like Alvarez did at Wisconsin. Purdue had been going downhill in Joe’s final few years and there’s not much talent here on either side of the ball. The schedule is a mixed blessing, with no PSU and the toughest road game being at another school in transition (but with far more talent) in Oregon … but the home slate is tough with visits from OSU, MSU and Wisconsin, plus those pesky Irish. 

* Key game: vs. Northwestern – It’s the Boilers’ best chance for a league win. They’ll be coming off the home game with Notre Dame and need to start the league lineup off right if they have any hope for bowl contention.

So looking at the major bowls and others involving league teams …

TITLE – Florida vs. Texas – Should have met last year, should be a great game
ORANGE – Virginia Tech vs. South Florida – Maybe they’ll fill half the seats?
SUGAR – LSU vs. Boise State – Broncs or Irish will be fed to Tigers at home
FIESTA – Oklahoma vs. Ohio State – This way, somebody finally gets a BCS W
ROSE – Penn State vs. Southern Cal – A rematch, but could have different results

CITRUS – Michigan State vs. Alabama – Saban Bowl could be a good one
OUTBACK – Wisconsin vs. Georgia – Bucky brings fans, and more red
ALAMO – Iowa vs. Nebraska – These two should meet EVERY year
CHAMPS – Illinois vs. Clemson – The annual underachiever bowl?
INSIGHT – Northwestern vs. Colorado – Fun matchup, can Cats break through?
MOTOR CITY – Minnesota vs. Central Michigan – A no-win for the Big Ten

And finally, the SjTop 25 preseason ballot …

SjTOP 25

1) FLORIDA – With everyone back and an unbelievably easy schedule, the Gators are very much the second coming of 2005 USC and could finally win a legitimate title.

2) TEXAS – Hmm, who ended 2005 USC’s run? Where was that game? The Horns were robbed of a title shot and Heisman last year and could get payback on both fronts.

3) OKLAHOMA – The Sooners have a tougher schedule than the top two and couldn’t beat either last year – the D is still a big question but the O will be fun to watch.

4) SOUTHERN CAL – A “rebuilding” year for them still has the Trojans favored in every game … but can they avoid that one midyear letdown, and a trip to Columbus?

5) LOUISIANA STATE – Les will have the Tigers back in the title hunt, but unlike most of their SEC counterparts, the schedule is not favorable aside from Florida at home.

6) PENN STATE – Leadership on offense and defense sets the Nits on top of the Big Ten, especially with OSU at home, but can they avoid their mental letdown to go 12-0?

7) VIRGINIA TECH – They’re once again carrying the ACC’s hopes of providing more than mediocre football, but they may not survive the opener against Alabama.

8) OHIO STATE – Will go as far as Terrelle Pryor takes them this year – two huge bookend games with USC and PSU will tell if that’s a title shot or just a good bowl.

9) OKLAHOMA STATE – A major darkhorse, the Cowpokes are loaded and have big home games with UGa and UT to get attention – but Bedlam is in Norman this year.

10) GEORGIA – A notch below the SEC elite, but the Dawgs get bonus points for being the ONLY SEC TEAM who apparently will leave the Deep South to play a tough nonconference game – ASU last year, Okie State this year, not to mention GaTech. That’s more top 25 foes outside the league than the rest of the SEC elite … combined.

11) UTAH – Robbed of the title last year, the Utes will be a powerhouse again, but all the big games are away (Oregon, TCU, BYU). Go 12-0 again and they better get a title shot!

12) MISSISSIPPI – Everyone’s favorite sleeper seems a tad overrated … Nutt’s a great coach, but the talent level is still a bit below the SEC elite. Still, no UF + LSU at home.

13) OREGON – The Ducks have the talent to be a top 10 team and could challenge SC, but the coaching change comes at a bad time with a brutal early schedule

14) BOISE STATE – Opening game with Ducks is Boise State’s audition for a BCS bowl – win that and they should cruise to 12-0 and a big payday (but no title shot).

15) CALIFORNIA – It’s now or never if the Bears want to take the Pac 10 crown from the Trojans, but the Bears just have too many questions to be a league favorite.

16) ALABAMA – The bowl setback, coupled with Bama’s turn on the SEC’s “probation rotation” schedule hurts, but Saban will have the Tide rolling by the end of the year.

17) FLORIDA STATE – Bowden’s swan song could be overshadowed by scandal, and the schedule is tough with the Gators and a hungry South Florida on the slate.

18) MICHIGAN STATE – Sparty can’t crack the Big Two in the Big Ten, but if they want to try and make it a Big Three, they need to beat the Irish big in South Bend.

19) BYU – The Cougars get Utah at home and would be a favorite for a BCS bid if they hadn’t taken Jerry Jones’ money to open the new Cowboys Stadium against Oklahoma.

20) KANSAS – With Mizzou hurting, the Jayhawks are the only hope for respectability in the north and should be easy fodder for the south winner in the “title” game.

21) SOUTH FLORIDA – The Bulls have Miami and FSU on the schedule, so they have a chance to prove they belong among the state’s elite … or that the Big Least is overrated.

22) PITTSBURGH – Unlike USF, the Panthers have an easy schedule and will be right in the thick of the BCS hunt, but beating Notre Dame is a must for any respect.

23) GEORGIA TECH – Someone has to win the ACC’s lottery to rise above the endless supply of 6-6 teams from that league – the Jackets are as good a bet as any.

24) ILLINOIS – Can’t look past Mizzou opener if they want respect because OSU, PSU and MSU all come calling in the weeks following for the inconsistent Illini.

25) TCU – Will have a solid defense again, but the road is tough with games at Clemson, Air Force and BYU before November rematch with Utah.

ON THE VERGE: Iowa, North Carolina, Northwestern, Oregon State, South Carolina



* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!