[NU Sports] Big Ten Midterms ...

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

Well, I can't do any Wildcat Wrapups this year (just not gonna work out economically to head to Evanston:( ), but I can still do the midterms. I'm going to assume that the Illini defeat the Hoosiers tonight and go from there.

We finally got to see PSU hit in the mouth today and how they'd respond to adversity. I think that actually might help them to have that happen before that big night game in Columbus. Plus, I think it goes to show the power Michigan still has mentally - those winged helmets just get in a lot of teams' heads -- hopefully not ours next month.

But before we get to the Big Ten, a look at how I see the BCS shaking down ...

- First off, I think there's no question that the Big XII and SEC get two teams each (and if the rules were different, probably more). In both cases, I think the second team will be one who misses the championship game, as not having that extra loss in the final game helps.
- The Big Ten should also get a second team - partially on rep and fan base and partially on how there's just no other alternatives - unless MSU/PSU/OSU all beat each other up.
- Notre Dame is going to get crushed by SC, so they're out.
- Utah is really the only BCS buster hope left - I think they get in since they have TCU and BYU at home. If not them, MAYBE Boise State. But they need Oregon State and Fresno State to look better than they have.

So here are the matchups ...

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: PENN STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
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I’m not as sure as I was this morning, but I still think the Nits run the table and truly earn the spot with a gritty win at OSU and beating good Iowa and MSU squads. But that’s the easy half, because I don’t see anyone else making it through unscathed. We saw a peek at the BCS standings this week, and it looks like SC sneaks back in with one-loss over cries of anger from SEC and Big XII land as they knock each other out.

ROSE BOWL: Ohio State vs. Alabama
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With their two teams going into the title game, Pasadena gets to choose its matchup, so it should be a good one. It brings the Buckeyes out to keep the Big Ten ties (plus they haven’t been there in a long time), but can’t find a Pac 10 qualifier, so they go for tradition. Oklahoma visited the Rose Bowl a few years back, but an SEC team looks even more tempting. If Bama loses at LSU but wins the rest, they might have the good fortune of not having to play in the SEC championship, thus making the Crimson Tide and their tradition a great matchup.

FIESTA BOWL: Texas vs. Utah
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The Horns won’t run the table, but they should win the Big XII and head west. As for their foe, the Fiesta folk will be pushing Pasadena to select Oklahoma so Bama (or LSU) can come and play Texas. But if the Rose takes the Tide, then they're stuck because they can't take OU and don't want the Big East champ, so they go with one of the busters – most likely Utah, but it’d be fun to see Boise State back in the desert for another upset.

SUGAR BOWL: Florida vs. Oklahoma
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I think the winner of the Cocktail Party wins the SEC, and I wanna pick Georgia, but the Gators seem to be on a mission here and get to New Orleans. As for their foe, if the Big XII doesn’t put one in Pasadena, their second slot probably comes here and the Sooners are just thrilled to not have to go to Phoenix again.

ORANGE BOWL: Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
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Yawn. Someone’s gotta take the Big Least and ACC teams. At least if they have to face each other here it leaves good matchups for the other bowls.

Now to the Big Ten …

PENN STATE
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• Record: 8-0 / 4-0 in Big Ten play
• Home: Indiana, Michigan State
• Road: Ohio State, Iowa
• Projection: 12-0 / 8-0 – BCS Championship vs. Southern Cal
• Analysis: Aside from a sloppy first half today, this team is firing on all cylinders right now and ready to head to Miami for a national championship game – but it won’t be easy. Next week’s night game in Columbus will be huge, as OSU is starting to find its rhythm with Pryor and Wells, but I think the Nits survive. The Iowa game on the road could be a dangerous ambush with the improved Hawkeyes, but if they win those two, there’s no way MSU will spoil things on Senior Day in Happy Valley.

OHIO STATE
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• Record: 7-1 / 4-0
• Home: Penn State, Michigan
• Road: Northwestern, Illinois
• Projection: 10-2 / 7-1 – Rose Bowl vs. Alabama
• Analysis: The Pryor/Wells backfield hit a speedbump against Purdue but came alive in East Lansing, making OSU a much better team than the one that lost out in LA to start the year. The big question is whether they’re good enough to beat PSU next week. It’ll be close, but I think being in a close game before the trip to Columbus helps PSU. After PSU, though, it’s tough to see anyone giving OSU a close game as they’ll be ready for the Illini this time. And if the Buckeyes are 10-2 with their only losses to the top two teams in the country, it’ll be tough to keep them out of Pasadena, where they haven’t been since 1997.

MICHIGAN STATE
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• Record: 6-2 / 3-1
• Home: Wisconsin, Purdue
• Road: Michigan, Penn State
• Projection: 9-3 / 6-2 – Citrus Bowl vs. Georgia
• Analysis: Sparty’s looking good on a whole, but losing big to OSU will prove whether Dantonio is a better coach than those before him in East Lansing.  I don’t see them making a late-season slide again this year. They weren’t quite up to the Buckeyes’ level and probably won’t have enough to beat PSU again – especially in State College. But other than that, these should roll against the Badgers and Boilers at home and exact some revenge on rival Michigan in Ann Arbor. A win in State College could make a case for the BCS, but more likely it’s a New Year’s Day game in sunny Orlando.

MINNESOTA
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• Record: 6-1 / 2-1
• Home: Northwestern, Michigan, Iowa
• Road: Purdue, Wisconsin
• Projection: 9-3 / 5-3 – Outback Bowl vs. Vanderbilt
• Analysis: Honestly, you could have the Gophers going 11-1 the rest of the way if they play like they have so far – they have an aggressive defense, an attitude on offense and confidence galore. Still, I think they slip up a couple times along the way – at least once on the road (where they will be favorites both times) and dropping back to the mid-pack. Their two biggest games in terms of bowl position – Iowa and Northwestern – are at home, so winning those could guarantee a January trip to Florida.

IOWA
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• Record: 5-3 / 2-2
• Home: Penn State, Purdue
• Road: Illinois, Minnesota
• Projection: 7-5 / 4-4 – Alamo Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
• Analysis: The Hawkeyes are hitting their stride at just the right time. Some early losses to Pitt and NU will probably keep them from a New Year’s Day bowl, but they’re going to finish strong, It’s hard to see them beating Penn State, even at home, but otherwise they can split the two road tests and still wind up in Texas.

ILLINOIS
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• Record: 4-3 / 2-2
• Home: Iowa, Ohio State
• Road: Wisconsin, Western Michigan, Northwestern
• Projection: 7-5 / 4-4 – Champs Bowl vs. Florida State
• Analysis: The first half of the season has to be disappointing for the Illini, but they also have a chance to finish strong. Outside of OSU, the other games look winnable. I think they drop one to either Wisky, Iowa or NU, though, and barely scrape into the bowl picture with Orlando’s second-tier bowl.

NORTHWESTERN
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• Record: 6-1 / 2-1
• Home: Ohio State, Illinois
• Road: Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan
• Projection: 8-4 / 4-4 – Insight Bowl vs. Kansas
• Analysis: The Cats have a chance to play themselves into a better bowl, but they can’t slip up anywhere along the path because Iowa and Illinois will always beat them out on fan base – even if they beat the Illini to go with their win over Iowa. They absolutely must beat the Hoosiers and then pick up either a win over the Illini or Gophers or overcome the reputation to beat a beatable Michigan team. Still, sunny Arizona is a beautiful place to spend the holidays.

WISCONSIN
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• Record: 3-4 / 0-4
• Home: Illinois, Minnesota, Cal Poly
• Road: Michigan State, Indiana
• Projection: 6-6 / 2-6 – Motor City Bowl vs. Central Michigan	
• Analysis: Bucky’s bowl chances are almost 100% mental right now. Physically, they should run the table except perhaps for the game in East Lansing. But after the 0-4 league start, they’ve lost their confidence and could wind up blowing home games against Minnesota and Illinois that they should win. As long as they don’t lose to both of them and Sparty, they should wind up with six wins and if that happens, Detroit would love to invite the Cheeseheads over for a bowl.
	
MICHIGAN
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• Record: 2-5 / 1-2
• Home: Michigan State, Northwestern
• Road: Purdue, Minnesota, Ohio State
• Projection: 4-8 / 3-5
• Analysis: If Michigan can defend home turf and win the brown jug on the road, they still have a chance at the Motor City Bowl – but more likely, RichRod’s team will merely play spoiler down the stretch. As the PSU and Wisconsin games showed, those Maize and Blue helmets still shake a lot of teams up mentally, so I could see Michigan ruining the chances of NU or Minnesota, and they’d love to show up Sparty – but most likely it will be a cold November and a forgettable end to the season in Columbus. Ouch.

PURDUE
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• Record: 2-5 / 0-3
• Home: Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana
• Road: Michigan State, Iowa
• Projection: 3-9 / 1-7
• Analysis: Sadly, it’s tough to see Tiller’s team running the table to earn him a bowl bid in his swan song as Purdue coach. They should win the bucket back, at least, but any other win would be a surprise.

INDIANA
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• Record: 2-5 / 0-4
• Home: Northwestern, Central Michigan, Wisconsin
• Road: Penn State, Purdue
• Projection: 2-10 / 0-8
• Analysis: It’s also tough to see the Hoosiers running the table to a bowl berth – and you have to think their two road games are losses. But they could derail Wisconsin and Northwestern at home with their offensive punch if either of those two teams come into Bloomington and play flat.

GO CATS!!! BEAT THE HOOSIERS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!

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