[NU Sports] 10 league games? Not likely

[cherron604 at aol.com]

On paper (and I hope I remember my probability and statistics correctly)...

If the binomial formula says that the probability of throwing x heads in n tosses is

n!
------
x!(n-x)!

If we assume 11 equal teams (not that it will ever happen), and we assume everybody can craft an unbeaten n-c sched (again, unlikely, but to prove the point)

In an 8 game schedule, with 4 n-c wins, you would need to go 3-5 to go bowling.? If every league game is a coin toss, 86% of teams should get 3 or more wins in the league.? Thats 9.4 teams out of 11.? One of the bowl predictors (scout.com ?) I noticed was calling for 9 bowl teams this year in their Oct 5 projection.? Only Indiana and Iowa would miss.? Incidentally, they had us in Insight bowl in Tempe on New Years Eve.

In an 10 game schedule, again, every game a coin toss, after your 2-0 n-c start you would need to go 5-5 to guarantee bowl eligibility at 7-5.? The stats there say only 62% of teams win 5 games or more.? Thats only 6.85 or probably 7 teams a year.

So 8 games could mean 9 bowl berths, whereas 10 games could mean only 7...And it's all about money/TV/bowls

Chuck Herron?? Tech '85


-----Original Message-----
From: Brad Wilson <bwdolphin146 at yahoo.com>
To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Sent: Thu, 2 Oct 2008 3:03 pm
Subject: [NU Sports] 10 league games? Not likely



I wouldn't mind, but: NU and Minnesota and Indiana need the league games to fill 
stadiums. Penn State, Iowa,?Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan do not. From 
their point of view,?why play a tougher league game in front of 106,000?people 
when you can schedule a sure win and?boost bowl hopes? (esp. now with FCS games 
counting towards bowls each season)

Also, Delany raied a point in a?story about?the?Big Ten's disgraceful non-league 
scheduling:?he mentioned four teams that, over the long term historically,?don't 
go to?bowls all that often (NU, Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue) (he phrased it 
somewhat differently, but you get the?idea) and said those teams would 
rather?play in a bowl than play, say, non-league slates against USC,?Oklahoma 
and Miami. In other words, 4 ifty non-cons plus a 3-5 BT record and you're going 
bowling! Call it the Glen Mason Formula.

So here's the question: most years?in?a 10-game BT schedule, or against a?much 
tougher non-league slate, does NU go to a bowl? I'd have to say no.?Of course 
you could argue NU doesn't?go now that often anyway and?you'd rather have a 
better home sked. 

I suspect this comes down to whether you go to Dyche or don't. As a season 
ticket holder, I can understand why Penn State or Wisconsin?is more attractive 
than Southern Illinois or Ohio. As a fan who lives 800 miles from Dyche?sees 1-2 
games a season, I'd rather go bowling. 

bw???
?


"Happy are those who see beauty in the modest spots where others see nothing." 
-- Camille Pissaro 


"Quis ipsos custodes custodiet?" -- Juvenal 


      

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