[NU Sports] Projected standings after week 12/Bowl projection

[John Labbe]

Here's my short-form bowl analysis:

If we win next week, then we'll go to the Outback, Alamo, or Champs  
Bowl depending in part on the outcome of the Iowa/Minn game and  
depending in part on whether the Big Ten gets an at-large BCS berth.   
But if we lose next week, then we technically could still get into the  
Outback or Alamo, but it's more likely that we would land in the  
Champs or Insight (although we could fall all the way to the Motor  
City).

Here's my longer analysis taking into account all of the most likely  
scenarios:

Scenario 1) Assuming Ohio State and Penn State both win next weekend  
and Ohio State gets an at-large BCS bid, and assuming that we beat  
Illinois, then we will go to either the Outback Bowl or the Alamo  
Bowl.  In this scenario, we'll be competing with the winner of the  
Iowa/Minnesota game next week for the spot in the Outback Bowl.  The  
winner of the Iowa/Minn game next week will be 8-4 overall and the  
loser of that game will be 7-5.  We will finish 9-3.  Therefore, the  
Outback Bowl could choose the winner of that game over us because that  
team will have only one more loss than we will.  If Iowa wins, then I  
think the Outback will pick Iowa over us.  We would be tied with Iowa  
at 4th place in the Big Ten with identical 5-3 conference records, and  
Iowa will be seen as the better draw.  But if Minnesota beats Iowa,  
then I think there's a good chance the Outback would pick us over  
Minnesota as we will have both the better overall and conference  
records and be the sole 4th-place Big Ten finisher.  Plus, I don't  
think Minnesota will be seen as a substantially better draw then NU.

If the Outback chooses the winner of the Iowa/Minn game over us, then  
we will be a lock for the Alamo bowl because we will have two more  
wins than any of the remaining Big Ten teams.

Scenario 2) Same as 1 (PSU and OSU to the BCS) but we lose to  
Illinois.  Also assume Wisconsin beats Cal Poly.  The loss to Illinois  
could send us back several games.  The Outback Bowl would probably  
pick Iowa, regardless of whether they beat Minnesota or not.  Then  
Wisconsin would probably go ahead of us, too.  Then we'd be competing  
with Minnesota for the Champs Bowl or the Insight Bowl.

Scenario 3) The Big Ten only gets 1 BCS bid (b/c either PSU or OSU  
loses next week or b/c OSU just doesn't get an at-large bid) but we  
beat Illinois.  This is a modified version of scenario 1, except that  
we'll be competing with the winner of the Minn/Iowa game for the Alamo  
Bowl instead of the Outback, and if we don't get the Alamo, then we'll  
be a lock for the Champs Bowl.

Scenario 4) Same as 3 but we lose to Illinois (also assume Wisconsin  
beats Cal Poly).  This is the worst-case scenario.  We could actually  
fall all the way to the Motor City Bowl in this scenario.  OSU, PSU,  
and MSU would take the top 3 spots (Rose, Capital One, and Outback).   
Then Iowa and Wisconsin would probably get selected ahead of us (Alamo  
and Champs).  Then we're competing with Minnesota for the Insight  
versus the Motor City.  I think we'd get the nod over Minnesota, but  
it wouldn't be guaranteed.


Another way of looking at all of this is that if we beat Illinois,  
then we're guaranteed to be either the 4th or 5th Big Ten bowl pick.   
But if we lose to Illinois, then we could be picked anywhere from 4th  
through 7th.





On Nov 15, 2008, at 9:02 PM, SjT (Stephen J. Truog) wrote:

> No argument on the standings - I think our Sweet Sioux game is  
> really the only competitive one next weekend. So the question  
> becomes whether we're in fourth with Iowa at 5-3 (but a game better  
> overall) or tied with Illinois for fifth at 4-4.
>
>
>> Penn State: Rose
>> Ohio State:  BCS at large
>> Michigan State: Outback Bowl
>> Iowa: Alamo Bowl
>> NU: Champs Sports Bowl
>> Wisconsin: Insight Bowl
>> Minnesota: Motor City Bowl
>
> You left out the Citrus, but I agree on the pecking order. Should we  
> lose to Illinois, both Minnesota and Iowa would be one game behind  
> us (both overall and in league play) and I think Wisky probably  
> leaps us then as well - but Minnesota's lost their charming story  
> angle.
>
> So the big question -- aside from our Illini game -- is whether we  
> get that extra BCS spot. I was pretty sure OSU was going to get it,  
> but I'm becoming less sure with Oregon State's run. The Beavers have  
> two tough games left at Arizona an against rival Oregon, but if they  
> win out, they get the Rose Bowl bid. If that happens, USC would  
> certainly be taken by the Fiesta Bowl ahead of OSU (and they could  
> be automatically in with a top 4 finish) and the Bucks could be left  
> out.
>
> So we can still probably go anywhere from Tampa to Arizona, but it's  
> probably either Orlando or San Antonio depending on what happens  
> next weekend.
>
> GO CATS!!!
> -SjT
>
>
>
>
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