[NU Sports] A thought on bowling

[Jonathan Hodges]

Final word on getting 6-6 teams into bowl games:

Per the NCAA Postseason Football Rules:

In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams
with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games
before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be
placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements
with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution
with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those
contests.

Therefore, since the Big Ten has 8 teams with winning records, even if 2 Big
Ten teams end up in BCS games there is no way either NU or Iowa will make it
to a Big Ten contractual bowl.

Here's my breakdown on if NU has a chance to get an "at large" berth, and,
basically, the conclusion is that NU does not.  Even if a "perfect storm"
occurs and all of the teams listed below lose for NU to have its best case
scenario, it would have to beat out Iowa and 2 SEC teams (as well as some
6-6 teams from lower conferences) in order to get a bowl berth, which is
unlikely.

(note this analysis is long)

Could NU @ 6-6 still make it to a bowl (updated 11/20).
Sure, it's not likely, but here's what the picture looks like right now:

Assumptions:
1. NU will not go to a bowl game over any other 6-6 BCS team (this includes
teams such as Vanderbilt).
2. NU will beat out any "lower tier" conference team that is 6-6 for a bid.

Of course, the rules that 7-5 teams must be picked ahead of 6-6 teams for
at-large bids applies.

Given that, the following teams need to lose in order to ensure that they do
not become bowl eligible and cannot be picked ahead of NU:

- Miami FL (lose to Boston College)
- Kansas St. (lose to Fresno State)
- Pittsburgh (lose to South Florida OR West Virginia)
- Louisville (lose to Rutgers)
- UCLA (lose to Oregon AND USC)
- Arizona (lose to Arizona State)
- Vanderbilt (lose to Wake Forest)
- Florida Atlantic (lose to Florida International OR Troy)
- TCU (lose to San Diego State)
- Nevada (lose to San Jose State OR Louisiana Tech)

Even with that, the SEC has 10 eligible teams, meaning that the "extras"
will most likely be selected above NU. Also, there are the other "extras"
from the Big Ten that will likely be selected above NU.

In terms of "open" slots for at-large teams, here is how that can play out:

In the BCS bowls, there are 10 slots: 6 will be filled with conference
champions, leaving 4 at-large spots. Each at large spot must be filled by a
difference conference (given the rule that limits 2 BCS spots per
conference). The Big XII is likely to get 2 spots (whether the second spot
is Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, or even Texas doesn't matter); the Pac-10 is
likely to get 2 spots; the SEC is likely to get 2 spots as well. The final
spot depends on a lot of things, we'll go into that final spot in a bit.

Here are the situations depending on how the BCS at large spot is given out.

Situation A: Illinois is selected for a BCS at large bid (meaning Hawaii
must lose against either Boise St or Washington). 3 available at-large bowl
spots. These would be filled by: Iowa, and 2 available SEC teams that have
already attained bowl eligibility. Unless NU can somehow beat out another
6-6 BCS conference school (not likely) this won't happen.

Situation B: Hawaii grabs a BCS bowl bid. 3 available at-large bowl spots.
These would be filled by: a 7-5 Big Ten school, and 2 out of the available
6-6 teams: Iowa or an SEC school.

Situation C: The ACC OR Big East fill that last BCS at-large spot. For this
to happen for the ACC, the Virginia/VT loser OR ACC championship loser
(assuming BC wins and loses in the champ. or the UVa/VT winner loses in the
champ.) must be in the top 14 and be selected for a BCS at large spot.
Alternatively, UConn can beat WVa to win their conference with WVa getting
an at large BCS bid. This would open up one more at large bowl spot, giving
4 open slots total. A 7-5 Big Ten team and Iowa plus the 2 SEC teams would
slide into those spots.

CONCLUSION

Therefore, even in a best case scenario, the only way NU makes it to a bowl
this year is if the 'Cats are somehow picked ahead of a 6-6 Iowa or SEC team
(most likely South Carolina, Alabama, or Mississippi St.). Not only is the
best case scenario not likely, but NU getting picked ahead of any of those
teams (who all have strong fan bases or have not been to a bowl in a while)
is very unlikely.

BTW, I was posting this just in case there were people clinging to hope out
there.

Also, here are a listing of the conferences and how many teams are
eligible/slots available given the NU BEST CASE scenario (all the teams
above losing as listed). This does not count the extra 4 BCS at large spots.

ACC: 8/8
Big XII: 8/8
Big East: 5/5
Big Ten: 10/7
CUSA: 6/6
Ind.: 1/1
MAC: 4/3 (1 @ 6-6)
MWC: 5/4 (1 @ 6-6)
Pac-10: 5/6
SEC: 10/8
Sun Belt: 1/1
WAC: 4/3

--
Jonathan

On Nov 20, 2007 9:14 PM, Mark Ament <prplehaze at insightbb.com> wrote:

>  6-6 teams are not allowed to go to at-large slots until all 7-5 teams
> have been taken, however, 6-6 teams ARE allowed to go to conference
> affiliated bowls even if 7-5 teams from other conferences are staying home.
> In Scott's scenario, NU could get the Motor City bid since the at-large bids
> were being filled by 7-5 teams.  It appears that both the Big 12 and Pac-10
> will not be able to fill all their slots, especially if the Big 12 gets two
> BCS bids as seems likely.
>
>
>
> The expansion of the BCS at large field to 18 seems designed to accomplish
> two things: 1) assure Boise of a bid should it beat Hawai'i this week, and
> 2) assure Illinois of a BCS bid - why I don't know - I guess it's because
> there just aren't any other options.
>
>
>
> With Big Ten bowls able to take their pick of the bottom of bowl eligible
> teams, it would appear that with some quick work by the Big Ten office, that
> Scott's scenario is workable.
>
> Mark
>
>
>
>
>
> SportsBiz – The Business of Sports Illuminated<http://thesportsbizblog.blogspot.com/>
>
> When it comes to sports, you know it's all about
>
> the money.
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On
> Behalf Of Jonathan Hodges
> Sent: Tuesday, November 20, 2007 2:35 PM
> To: szeller at comcast.net
> Cc: nwu-sports at romaine.tssi.com
> Subject: Re: [NU Sports] A thought on bowling
>
>
>
> I don't think this is possible since the rules are that the bowls with
>
> conference tie-ins have first dibs at those conference teams and that the
>
> teams with winning records must be selected prior to teams with 6-6
>
> records.  Also, the NCAA rules do not allow for official agreements to be
>
> made between bowls and conferences after the start of the season (so that
>
> you don't end up with extra tie-ins to make room for those extra 6-6
> teams,
>
> which basically addresses what you're getting at).
>
>
>
> The best example as to why that wouldn't work came last year where the
>
> following BCS conference teams were left out of bowls despite having a
> "bowl
>
> eligible" 6-6 record: Kansas, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Washington State
>
> (there were also 5 other lower tier conference teams at 6-6 that were left
>
> at home).  Meanwhile, "lower tier" conference teams got to go bowling with
>
> 7-5 records thanks to those rules that allowed them to be selected above
>
> teams with 6-6 records, e.g. NIU.
>
>
>
> Jonathan
>
>
>
> On Nov 20, 2007 1:08 PM, <szeller at comcast.net> wrote:
>
>
>
> > Perhaps farfetched, but knowing how much the BT would want the revenue
> and
>
> > exposure, and can wield influence, how about this scenario:
>
> > The Big Ten office, working with the AD's, talks to some of the at-large
>
> > bowls, and those bowls whose conference does not have bowl-eligible
> teams,
>
> > and offers some of our 7-5 teams. They find interesting warm-weather
> spots
>
> > for those attractive-record teams, and their fans are happy with a fun,
> new,
>
> > different spot to go to. They then fill the bottom two
> conference-assigned
>
> > bowls with 6-6 NU and Iowa. All ten teams get a bowl, ten bowls get Big
> Ten
>
> > exposure and fan turnout, the Big Ten is happy, everyone is happy.
> Possible?
>
> >
>
> > Scott Zeller MD
>
> > Med '86
>
> > _______________________________________________
>
> > nwu-sports site list
>
> > nwu-sports at tssi.com
>
> > http://romaine.tssi.com/mailman/listinfo/nwu-sports
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Jonathan W. Hodges
>
> 1237 Emerson St Apt 2
>
> Evanston, IL  60201-3577
>
> (847) 736-2449
>
> jonathanwhodges at gmail.com
>
> _______________________________________________
>
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>
> nwu-sports at tssi.com
>
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>



-- 
Jonathan W. Hodges
1237 Emerson St Apt 2
Evanston, IL  60201-3577
(847) 736-2449
jonathanwhodges at gmail.com