[NU Sports] Some Crucial Stats

Tue Nov 20 13:22:42 CST 2007

The primary problem this year was red zone scoring: NU scored 77% of the
time in the red zone but scored TDs only 60% of the time.  NU showed a great
ability to move the ball "between the 20s" but failed to punch it in
numerous times.

It was obvious that McGee's offensive game plan this year was to run a
pass-centered offense.  Right off the bat in NU's first offensive series of
the year, NU passed the ball 7 times (with 7 completions) along with 2
Sutton runs and 1 Bacher run (for the TD) against Northeastern, which should
have indicated this trend early on (NU's OL easily outsized Northeastern's
defensive line which definitely lent itself towards running the ball, but NU
passed anyways).  What this strategy meant was that if Bacher, the offensive
line, or the receivers were out of sync then things could go south quickly
(as we learned in the 4th quarter of more than one ball game) - which is in
stark contrast to a run-heavy game where you need to focus on plowing the
defense off the line and letting the RB do the rest.

In any case, the red zone issues mostly came because the spread pass-heavy
attack just isn't effective when the field shrinks, which is the case in the
red zone.  A perfect example, unfortunately, is the end of the Duke game
where NU went 1-7 passing on 2 new sets of downs inside the red zone: Duke
could blitz CJ almost at will while managing to cover as much field as
necessary, therefore forcing bad throws - they didn't have to worry about
the run and they didn't have to worry about receivers getting downfield too
far.

Also, the fact is that the OL underwhelmed for much of the year (allowing 32
sacks on the season) and CJ has not shown a consistent ability to throw well
while on the move (whether that be while scrambling, on a designed roll out,
or having to move in the pocket).  This meant that when pressure got back
there (which was more often than we would have liked), CJ had to get rid of
the ball - sometimes to bad results.

I fully expect McGee to learn and address this issue in the offseason -
because look at how much he improved the offense from last year.  What we
saw in yards vs. points this year was most likely a direct result of the
relative lack of coaching experience on the offensive side (remember that
Walker was the NU offense's guru) and that we've already seen improvement so
more should be coming.

The question I'm much more worried about, though, is how can NU shore up its
defense and get back to respectability.  Since Walker took over in 1999, the
best defensive performance in terms of points yielded was 2003 (25.1 ppg,
57th nationally) and in terms of yards was 2006 (362.5 ypg, 85th
nationally).  I have no doubt that the offense can manage to pull out some
wins for NU, but the defense has to give the offense a fighting chance in
order to have a shot at a championship, as you noted.

On defense, NU needs to be much more aggressive (in order to generate those
turnovers) and more physical up front.  NU ranked 95th nationally this year
in sacks, which is probably the easiest stat to turn to.  If the defense can
get guys in the backfield quickly and get the the QB/ball carrier, good
things can happen: fumbles, sacks, bad throws that turn into incompletions
or INTs.  The fact is that NU's defense hasn't been able to consistently get
to the QB: hence why opposing QBs can look like All-Americans every week
(look at Duke's Lewis and Iowa's Christiansen who were horrible most of the
year... except when playing NU).  And the "soft" coverage in the secondary
hasn't helped matters either (but then again any QB can find an open
receiver if they have all day to throw).  To me this points to the need for
a big strategy change (e.g. coaching shakeup on that side of the ball) as
what's been going on obviously hasn't been working despite having at least a
decent amount of talent (look at the roll call of NFL bound defensive
players: McGarigle, Castillo, Cofield, Bentley...).

Jonathan

On Nov 20, 2007 12:42 PM, <CHerron604 at aol.com> wrote:

> Today's Chicago Tribune contained some very interesting statistics.
>
> The Cats finished 1st in conference passing (307.9 ypg), 11th in rushing
> (a
> mere 119.8 ypg), and 1st in total yardage (427.7 ypg) - but 10th in
> scoring
> (25.8 ppg).  Most other teams scored in proportion to the yardage they
>  gained.
>  The other exceptions were OSU, which was 8th in yardage (397.1  ypg) but
> 3rd
> in scoring (32.0 ppg), and Indiana, 9th in yardage (393.3 ypg) but  4th in
> scoring (31.6 ppg).
>
> Some of our problem was turnovers - we were 2nd worst in the league in
> turnover margin at -9 (16 takeaways, 25 giveaways).  But the problem
>  remains - we
> gained alot of yards, but did not convert those yards into  points.  And
> until
> we can convince the NCAA to start deciding  games on 'yards gained', we've
> got a problem.
>
> The top 7 teams in the league standings finished 8th, 3rd, 10th, 5th, 7th,
> 11th and 9th in yards gained.  That would seem to indicate that there is
>  not a
> strong relation between yards gained and league success.   The relation
> seems
> to be defense - the top 7 finished 1st, 7th, 3rd, 4th,  2nd, 5th and 9th
> in
> total defense.  We were not last - we gave up 410.5  ypg, and the Gophers
> gave
> up 518.7 ypg.  The message seems clear - good  defenses win in the Big 10.
>
> Indiana seems a very interesting case.  9th in yardage but 4th in
>  scoring,
> and 9th in yardage given up, they still managed to finish 7-5 and  are
> probably
> Bowl bound.  We finished 1st in yardage but 10th in scoring,  and 10th in
> yardage given up, and we will be home for the holidays.
>
> So how do we attack these 2 problems ?  Other than taking the ball  away
> more
> often than we give it away, how do we start converting yardage gained
>  more
> efficiently into points scored ?  And how do we stop finishing at or  near
> the
> bottom of the league in defense ?
>
> Chuck Herron   Tech '85
>
>
>
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-- 
Jonathan W. Hodges
1237 Emerson St Apt 2
Evanston, IL  60201-3577
(847) 736-2449
jonathanwhodges at gmail.com