[NU Sports] Bowl Projections (was: I see an 8th Bowl spot slipping away...)

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

As fun as it may see to watch OSU lose another
late-season #1 ranking at home, yes, this did hurt the
Cats big-time.

And part of me was glad that at least the OSU loss
would give Oregon a chance to prove they're clearly
better than an LSU team living up on the SEC's past
reputation (51-31? Is there no defense left for the
SEC's defenses?) ... part of me sees a scenario
similar to five years ago happening again.

Back then, the BCS computers screwed the Pac 10 champ
(USC) and allowed the Big XII champ Sooners (coming
off a loss) to play LSU in a Tiger home game in the
Superdome. Now, swap Ducks for Trojans and history
could repeat itself as LSU will almost certainly be at
home in the title game and a big boost from the
computers for playing the KU-Mizzou winner in the
title game could jump Oklahoma ahead of the Ducks.:(

But back to the Big Ten ... it's pretty amazing, but
the Big Ten has TEN bowl-eligible teams now. In the
SEC they call that amazing strength, but I guess we'll
get dumped on for it as the media has yet to recognize
that Illinois, Wisconsin and Penn State are some
pretty solid teams. However, we only seven spots, as
the OSU loss all but guaranteed that there will be no
at-large BCS berth. Even more amazing is that the ones
who are "just in" at six wins easily could have seven
if IU and MSU didn't collapse in October and NU coulda
beat friggin' Duke.

We're pretty much the #10 choice any way you slice it
unless we can win next week and get to 7-5 and be
forced to be taken ahead of 6-6 teams like MSU and
Indiana (who have tough rivalry games as well next
week).

So, after yet another wild weekend, a new look at the
bowl projections ...

BCS TITLE GAME: Oregon vs. LSU - I'm hoping that LSU
slips up or that a so-so SEC title game foe hurts
their computer rankings, but they're in anyway, so I
hope that the Ducks at least get there to face 'em.
However, an Oklahoma-Oregon title game would be so
much better - great contest, all the spillover from
last year's controversial game in Eugene and no home
cooking for the SEC to give one side an edge.

ROSE BOWL: Ohio State vs. Arizona State - The Rose
will happily take the winner of the ASU-USC turkey day
game if the Ducks head to the title contest and while
I wouldn't count out Michigan in Lloyd's home finale,
the Bucks won't lose two in a row.

SUGAR BOWL: Florida vs. Hawaii - With LSU in the title
game, the folks in New Orleans take another SEC team
to fill seats against the Hawaii team they have to
take (too bad because I'd love to see a Zooker Bowl in
Orlando with the Gators and Illini!).

FIESTA BOWL: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia - Here's where
things get tricky. Usually the Mountaineers head to
Miami, but since Texas will likely be the other
at-large team, and we don't want Red River Rivalry II,
they go here and we get a heck of a matchup.

ORANGE BOWL: Clemson vs. Texas - With BC falling apart
and the Hokies still shaky, Clemson seizes the moment
to finish strong and take a ton of orange to the
Orange Bowl. The folks in Miami would love to have the
Gators, but they'll settle for more orange with Tejas.

CITRUS BOWL: Illinois vs. Georgia - The Illini are the
big story, have the Chicago market and really deserve
to be the #2 pick if they beat NU as they beat PSU and
Wisky and will have one more win than Big Blue. But
you could see PSU sneak in on rep and fan support.
Meanwhile, the Dogs settle for Orlando after the SEC
title game loss.

OUTBACK BOWL: Michigan vs. Kentucky - Tough call who
Tampa will take from the Big Ten or SEC here. Michigan
beat PSU, PSU beat Wisky, Wisky beat Michigan and all
have name and fan support ... Lloyd Carr's final game
may be the tipping point. As for their opponent, the
Vols were here last year and the Gamecocks and
Kentucky are fading ... Auburn or Alabama could go
here also.

CHAMPS BOWL: Penn State vs. Florida State - Wisky was
in Orlando last year, plus can you get a better
mid-level bowl story than JoePa against Bobby with the
two likely being withing a game on the all-time win
chart?

ALAMO BOWL: Wisconsin vs. Texas Tech - Could be the
"goodbye coach" bowl if Michigan plays Texas A&M ...
but we'll settle for a lot of red and a run vs. pass
showdown.

INSIGHT BOWL: Purdue vs. Colorado - The Buffs have
battled hard this year while the Boilers may be a tad
underappreciated and can light it up with anyone.

MOTOR CITY BOWL: Iowa vs. Central Michigan - After
beating Western Michigan next week, the Hawks will be
7-5 and will have to be chosen ahead of the 6-6
Spartans (much to Detroit's dismay) unless Sparty
shocks PSU.

As for the rest, Indiana is likely the first to get an
at-large bid because of the story (they're also the
most likely to upset their rival next weekend of the
6-6 teams). MSU comes after that and NU is last in the
pecking order.

Bottom line, I guess, is that the non conference games
count. We beat Duke (or hang on vs. any of the three
Big Ten games where we had late leads) and we're in
better shape. And if Michigan had done better against
AS or Oregon or the Illini not fumbled so often
against Mizzou, maybe we get an extra berth thanks to
two BCS at-large teams.

GO CATS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!

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