[NU Sports] Maybe the Big Ten ...

[Jeff Beamsley]

My last post on this too.

In the pre-BCS days, the bowl committees got to choose who would have an
opportunity to play for a mythical national championship.  It was chaotic,
political, and often arbitrary.  Sometimes we got competitive  matchups that
had national title implications, and sometimes not.

The BCS was supposed to fix all of that.  It was supposed to add some degree
of analytical precision to the process of determining which teams earned the
right to play in an actual national championship game by the results on the
field and not just their reputation or the conference they came from.

The problem is that all those who have ballots in the human polls have
figured out how their voting affects the BCS ratings.  So now we have a
system where the statistical ratings generated by the computer program is
deliberately balanced by the humans who are voting to alter the outcome.  In
the past couple of years, the huge swings in ratings late in the year in the
human vote has been highly influenced by the national media and the
expectation of what the computer ratings were going to be.

This year the national media decided fairly early on that a rematch of OSU
and LSU would be the best game for all of us to watch, so it isn't all that
surprising that this is what we ended up with.  Last year the media did not
want to see a rematch of OSU/UoM so they were very sympathetic to the
energetic lobbying from Urban Meyer.  The fact the Florida went on to
dominate that game, only supported this process.

The problem I have with this process is that it reduces possibility of an
"unknown" team from ever really having a shot at a national championship
because even going undefeated is no longer going to guarantee the sort of
public support needed to really get into the BCS mix.  So if only for the
"hoosier-factor" I'd like to see a playoff system where a Boise State (or
Northwestern) has on opportunity with one of those once-in-a-lifetime teams
to play their way into a national championship game that they would never get
through the polls.

Jeff

  

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On
Behalf Of SjT (Stephen J. Truog)
Sent: Wednesday, December 05, 2007 12:39 AM
To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: RE: [NU Sports] Maybe the Big Ten ...

OK, last post from me on this I promise.:) It helps to get the B(C)S disgust
out of the system to go ahead and enjoy the Big Ten bowl season.

> sjtruog at yahoo.com said:> If #1 and #2 lose and #3 and #4 do not, it 
> stands to reason that
> > unless #5 has a great win, those two should move
> up.
> Stephen, I think this is where your logic breaks down.  I disagree 
> that #3 and #4 should automatically move up.  Each poll is an 
> independent measurement of current perceived strength, taking into 
> context the season's results as a whole.

But see, didn't the poll the week before take that into account as well? What
happened between last week and this week to make LSU all of a sudden #2
instead of #7? Two teams ahead of them lost? Fine - move 'em up two spots.
But is a 21-14 win over Tennessee worth a five-spot leap? The teams ahead of
LSU are the same this week as they were last week - they didn't change, nor
did their overall body of work.

All that changed was an "O S#!^" reaction by the bowls to having a team that
didn't win its conference play in the title game for the third time and a
massive PR campaign -- led by ESPN -- to say LSU deserves it.

I dunno, to me it's easier to understand why a team up top that lost doesn't
drop that far (such as OU or Nebraska in their years ... though Nebraska's
big loss made it quite puzzling) than what's happened the past two years. A
loss in the title game - when viewed in the context of their season as a
whole - could only mean a 1-2 spot drop in some cases. But to leap up five
spots or two spots requires something extraordinary. They're the same teams
ahead as the week before - all that changed was LSU (or Florida last year) -
was their title game enough to totally reshape their body of work? Oklahoma's
thrashing of #1 maybe. LSU by a TD over Tennesse? No way.

> There's a lot of interdependence when voters are weighing the +/- 
> impact of various wins and losses.
> For instance, Kansas didn't move up after Missouri lost because KU's 
> loss to Missouri was perceived as a greater negative than it had been 
> previously.

And I can see why they kept Mizzou ahead of Kansas.
That made sense.
  
> I find your tirade against the polls puzzling, Stephen.  Polls 
> represent the combined opinions of many different people.  Are they 
> ALL idiots, because the week-to-week changes in poll rankings don't 
> conform to your sense of "correct" poll metaphysics?

Not all idiots (though looking at some of the
ballots:) ) ... just sheep. ESPN and the BCS did everything they could
Saturday night to beg and twist arms to gift wrap a title game spot for LSU
and they felt the peer pressure and obliged.

If you had UGa, Kansas, USC, VaTech or whoever ahead of LSU last week, what
else besides the campaigning on ESPN possessed you to suddenly see the light
and move LSU up to #2. Georgia's not a champ? You knew that last week. VaTech
lost to LSU three months ago? Again, old news. Beating Tennessee by a
touchdown? Maybe I missed the part of the game where LSU looked like a
dominant team. They trailed most of the game and looked awfully sluggish when
I watched.

I dunno. Like I said, it just doesn't pass the smell test to me. I expect the
game to be close, but I really can't see OSU beating the Tigers in New
Orleans. And when they hoist that trophy, it's going to feel pretty
unsatisfying for a lot of fans.
Especially if USC, Georgia, Hawaii, Oklahoma or other teams with a legit
claim at that shot win their game big.

And yes, I know some of this existed before the BCS, but it just seems like
the BCS has made it worse and less fun. They got lucky all those other years
because the FSU or Big XII team that got in under suspect circumstances
always lost to #1 ... but last year their luck ran out and I suspect the same
will happen this year with the team that got in under a cloud of controversy
winning and then everyone having them shoved down our throats as clear
champions when many felt they didn't deserve it.

Oh well, bring on the bowls.:)
Go Big Ten!
GO CATS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!


 
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