[NU Sports] SjT College Football preview ...

Sun Aug 26 18:45:58 CDT 2007

It's that most wonderful time of the year again ... I
can hear the bands marching, tailgates sizzling and
crisp autumn Saturdays of pigskin perfection are just
around the corner! The Week 1 picks lineup will be
coming up next, but first we get the annual Big Ten
preview and pre-season SjTop 25 rankings. Enjoy!

SjT BIG TEN PREVIEW 2007
####################

1) MICHIGAN
* Projected finish: 12-0 (8-0) / BCS Title Game vs.
USC
* Why they’ll win it: An offense that is arguably the
league’s best at every skill position, along with
sentiment that it may be Lloyd Carr’s swan song and
the sting of last year's final two games providing
motivation for a resurgence of Maize and Blue.
* Why they won’t: A rebuilt defense and O-line 
 plus
a September trio of games (Oregon, ND, PSU) where Carr
has stumbled in the past and a final triple play of
visits to MSU and Madison along with a visit from that
team to the South that has beaten Michigan 4 of the
last 5 games.
* Outlook: Michigan seems to be set up to be the Ohio
State of last year, with Hesiman candidates galore on
offense, the host spot in that annual rivalry game and
some sting from just missing the BCS title game last
year. Add to that a push by a focused coaching staff
(possibly a final push for Carr?) and it could be a
rematch with the Trojans in New Orleans.

2) PENN STATE
* Projected finish: 11-1 (7-1) / Rose Bowl vs.
California
* Why they’ll win it: One of the two Big Ten teams to
beat the SEC in last year’s bowl games, PSU is hoping
that Tampa was Anthony Morelli’s coming out party –
with a lot of talent on offense and a favorable
schedule, it could be another “roar restored” year for
JoePa in Happy Valley.
* Why they won’t: The off-field problems could be
distracting, though JoePa’s solution actually could be
one that brings the team closer together. There’s also
some key losses on defense to contend with and that
gigantic mental road block in Maize and Blue that has
tripped up PSU for a decade now.
* Outlook: If PSU can beat Michigan, look out! But
even if they don’t, that game’s in September and there
are plenty of marquee contests with Notre Dame, Ohio
State, Iowa and Wisconsin at home. That Badger game
could be for a second BCS berth from the league. Beat
the Badgers and an 11-1 team on an 8-game winning
streak could mean a return to Roses for Nittany fans.

3) WISCONSIN
* Projected finish: 10-2 (6-2) / Citrus Bowl vs.
Georgia
* Why they’ll win it: After last year’s surprising
campaign, the Badgers are a fashionable sleeper pick
for the title game, with loads of offensive talent
returning and a favorable schedule that could have
Bucky 10-0 with Michigan coming in to Camp Randall for
a huge November showdown.
* Why they won’t: A new quarterback will be rough, and
Coach Bielema won’t be surprising anyone this year.
Plus, the road isn’t exactly a cakewalk with visits to
OSU and PSU.
* Outlook: Bucky’s tough, and probably more of a
threat to win the league than PSU because they don’t
fear Michigan as much – but I still see them third in
a close race at the top because the PSU game is in
Happy Valley. That’s their biggest obstacle to a
perfect season, not Michigan in Madison.

4) OHIO STATE
* Projected finish: 9-3 (5-3) / Outback Bowl vs.
Auburn
* Why they’ll finish higher: There are a lot of shoes
to fill with the talented departures on offense 
 but
at least the Bucks will have some time to break in the
new starters. No early game with Texas here, so OSU
can rely on defense until late October and the D
should be solid. Plus, last year’s puzzling title game
gaffes aside, Tressel’s still the top coach in the
league.
* Why they won’t: No Smith. No Ginn. No Pittman (that
one really hurts). No Gonzalez. Yes, the D is solid
like it was a few years ago, but OSU also relied
big-time on special teams to eke out those games with
the D, and Aaron Pettrey is no Mike Nugent. They could
slip up early while the newbies on offense make
mistakes.
* Outlook: The Buckeyes were probably the best team in
the nation last year and just were rusty and
ill-prepared for their final game – they simply lost
too much talent to win the league this year. But
they’ll definitely have a say in who takes home the
trophy, as they play PSU, Wisconsin and Michigan in
their final four games. If they can build  confidence
and avoid big mistakes early, they could be 8-0
heading into Happy Valley and pull an upset or two to
spoil one of the Big Three’s chances.

5) IOWA
* Projected finish: 9-3 (5-3) / Champs Bowl vs. Miami
(FL)
* Why they’ll finish higher: No Michigan. No Ohio
State. The schedule is kind and the Hawkeyes have a
lot returning on D and also have a lot to prove after
a couple of disappointing seasons that have taken the
glow off of Kirk Ferentz’ halo.
* Why they won’t: A new quarterback, O-line and big
questions on special teams hurt. So does road games in
Madison, Happy Valley and West Lafayette.
* Outlook: The Hawks’ record will be inflated a big
this year thanks to the schedule and they could go
10-2 if they can upset Wisky, PSU or Purdue on the
road. They could slip up elsewhere early, but the
schedule is made for a strong finish and Iowa could
use that big close and solid record to lock up a
strong second-tier bowl berth.

6) PURDUE
* Projected finish: 9-3 (5-3) / Alamo Bowl vs. Texas
A&M
* Why they’ll finish higher: The Boilers will be a
dangerous team that will score plenty of points this
year. They also have something to prove after a couple
of disappointing years.
* Why they won’t: The defense has most starters back,
but is that a good thing? Plus a six-game stretch in
the middle of the season that includes visits from
Notre Dame, OSU and Iowa along with trips to Michigan
and PSU will be brutal.
* Outlook: I like the Boilers as a spoiler surprise
this year to win one game they shouldn’t, but also to
lose one game they should win in un Tiller like
fashion. They’ll score a lot and if the D can hold up
just a bit better than last year, this will be a
dangerous squad that’s fun to watch that will be in
every game.

7) NORTHWESTERN
* Projected finish: 7-5 (3-5) / Insight Bowl vs.
Kansas State
* Why they’ll finish higher: The Cats have their
quarterback in C.J. Bacher and should once again be
explosive on offense. Plus, a host of returning
starters should help toughen a defense that is
starting to get some speed in the secondary.
* Why they won’t: Some O-line and D-line questions
loom large, and depth questions, as usual, are a
concern (see Bacher’s injury last year that likely
cost them a bowl berth).
* Outlook: Last year was already a rebuilding one
before the tragedy of Coach Walker’s death and Coach
Fitz did an admirable job of holding the ship
together, with solid improvement at the end of the
season. If they stay healthy, the Cats should build on
that and return to the bowl scene. Winning all of the
four non-conference games is crucial to that, however,
along with defending home turf with Minnesota and
Indiana. That’s six wins 
 meaning road games at MSU,
Purdue and Illinois, along with a home date with Iowa
will likely hold the key to a bowl berth.

8) MINNESOTA
* Projected finish: 6-6 (2-6) / Motor City Bowl vs.
Miami (OH)
* Why they’ll win it: Glen Mason didn’t exactly leave
the cupboard bare for new coach Tim Brewster and the
schedule is set up nicely with four creampuffs for the
nonconference and some key Big Ten games at home.
* Why they won’t: A new coach and a new quarterback
usually spells trouble, not to mention the off-season
off-field troubles in the program this year. Plus the
defense has some holes.
* Outlook: Like Northwestern, Minnesota needs a 4-0
mark outside of the Big Ten to have a reasonable bowl
chance 
 then the key games become home dates with
Purdue, Illinois, OSU (early in the year – a plus) and
road games at Indiana and Northwestern. Get three of
those and you’re in, two and you’re sweating it out,
hoping for two BCS bids for the league. Things may get
better for the Gophers with a strong recruiter like
Brewster in the future, but this year’s going to be a
tough transition and Mason may not look that bad by
November.

9) ILLINOIS
* Projected finish: 5-7 (1-7)
* Why they’ll finish higher: Ron Zook has assembled a
lot of talent in Champaign, raised the excitement
level and has a load of starters returning, including
playmaker Juice Williams.
* Why they won’t: Despite all the hype and fashionable
bowl pick status, the Illini may still be a year away.
They haven’t shown they know how to win the close
games yet, and with a schedule that includes OSU,
Michigan, PSU, Wisconsin, Iowa and early games vs.
Missouri and at Syracuse, they need to win those close
ones.
* Outlook: Memorial Stadium and any home field edge
the Illini can muster may hold the key to a bowl berth
this season. PSU, Wisconsin, Michigan and rival
Northwestern visit Champaign along with Ball State and
Western Illinois, and Illinois likely needs four of
those to guarantee a bowl berth. Otherwise, it may
come down to hoping the Big Ten gets two BCS teams and
beating NU on the final day of the season 
 and even
that might not cut it. But next year, this is a
breakout team.

10) INDIANA
* Projected finish: 5-7 (1-7)
* Why they’ll finish higher: There’s a lot of talent
returning in Bloomington and the Hoosiers have become
a mentally tough team in recent years and were poised
for a breakout in 2007.
* Why they won’t: The tragic death of Coach Hoeppner
meant that for the second straight year, an improving
Big Ten program with a former Miami of Ohio head coach
will be under tremendous emotional stress after losing
their leader and, even more, an all-around good guy
who was a father figure for many. Indiana is a bit
more prepared than Northwestern was because of Coach
Hoeppner’s illness last year and missing practices,
but that doesn’t make the loss any easier.
* Outlook: Indiana, like NU last year, will be playing
this year on pure emotion as a tribute to their
beloved coach. That means an upset or two is likely,
but also that the strain and burnout will come
quicker. Everyone will be cheering for IU to get those
six wins and a bowl, but like the Cats in 2006, I see
them coming up just short.

11) MICHIGAN STATE
* Projected finish: 4-8 (1-7)
* Why they’ll finish higher: Javon Ringer is a
talented running back and the defense returns a lot of
starters for new coach Mark Dantonio. Plus, a change
in attitude on the coaching staff has to help.
* Why they won’t: New coach. New quarterback. A tough
schedule that includes visits to South Bend, Madison,
Columbus, Iowa City and West Lafayette 
 in addition
to home dates with Michigan and Penn State.
* Outlook: Sparty may pull an upset or two, but if
they stumble early to UAB or Pitt 
 or get down after
games at ND and Wisky and slip up against
Northwestern, it could be a long season full of
Spartan fans’ usual chorus of boos and ugly scores
during a brutal home stretch. A new coach may
ultimately wake this sleeping giant of a program, but
they have to dig out of a pretty big hole first.

And now for the poll ...

SjTop 25 – PRESEASON
##################
1	SOUTHERN CAL – Trojans loaded and ready to get back
to top
2	MICHIGAN – Offense is loaded, but schedule is full
of traps
3	LSU – Toughies at home, but new QB and SEC make 12-0
tough
4	WEST VIRGINIA – Again, Big Least sked tailor made
for 12-0
5	TEXAS – Horns talented 
 could be MNC darkhorse if
beat OU
6	FLORIDA – Defending champs lost a lot, but still
loaded
7	WISCONSIN – Win at PSU and could be 10-0 for
Michigan visit
8	VIRGINIA TECH – Upset at LSU would restore some ACC
cred
9	GEORGIA – Lightest schedule of SEC contenders =
darkhorse?
10	CALIFORNIA – Vols and SC visit Berkeley – put up or
shut up
11	PENN STATE – Biggies at home, but still have
Michigan block
12	AUBURN – Dangerous, but have murderous SEC road
games
13	UCLA – Still not a believer, but SC win last year a
start
14	OKLAHOMA – Sooners still only real threat to Horns
in Big XII
15	LOUISVILLE – New coach, but same QB and weak
conference
16	FLORIDA STATE – As always, talent’s there 
 but in
a slump
17	OHIO STATE – Young, but have time to learn before
big games
18	ARKANSAS – In turmoil, but still have best back in
nation
19	NEBRASKA – Order restored? We’ll find out when SC
visits
20	HAWAII – Will be favored in every game, and win
most big
21	TENNESSEE – Another Cal drubbing would improve Vols
status
22	ARIZONA STATE – Have schedule, cocky coach for big
year
23	IOWA – No Michigan? No OSU? Thank you,
schedulemaker!
24	TCU – Probably best non-BCS team, but visit Texas 

ugh!
25	RUTGERS – Will win 9 or 10, but can they beat WV or
UL?

TEN MORE TO WATCH
XX	BOISE STATE – Cinderella’s back, but must visit
Hawaii
XX	SOUTH CAROLINA – Spurrier makes them dangerous
XX	BOSTON COLLEGE – Could be surprise in so-so ACC
race
XX	OREGON – Ducks still tough at home and Pac 10
darkhorse
XX	CLEMSON – Are Tigers ready to step up to ACC elite?
XX	TEXAS A&M – Coach Fran needs a big year to survive
XX	PURDUE – Will score plenty, but will the D hold up?
XX	TEXAS TECH – See Purdue
XX    OKLAHOMA STATE - See Purdue
XX	ALABAMA – Saban will have Tide back soon

Picks coming up! Good to have football back!
GO CATS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!

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