[NU Sports] NU B-Ball Loss

[Jeff Beamsley]

You identified the problem and the solution early in your post.

NU doesn't have the caliber of outside shooter necessary to make the
Princeton offense work, particularly against a good zone team.

As I posted earlier, the whole goal of the Princeton offense is to force a
team to play man-to-man.  Once that happens, the offense (sort of like the
spread in football) is able to take advantage of weak defenders.  

Zone defenses are willing to give you an outside shot in return for taking
away all layups and medium range jumpers.  Teams with one or two outstanding
players can break down the zone because they can make three or four outside
shots in a row which forces the defender on that side of the zone to come
out.  At that point, they can put the ball on the floor and proceed to break
down the zone.  They do that a couple of times and then the defense has to
switch. 

So I don't think the current problems are the fault of the offense.  I think
it is the reality of a program that isn't getting much respect and not
recruiting the best players.  

I agree that the style of offense is another hurdle, but I think that it is
more likely the investment that NU is willing to make right now to
recruiting.  There have to be at least five excellent basketballers who are
good students, value an NU education, and don't have visions of the NBA
dancing in their heads.  After all, only a couple of the dukies every year
go to the NBA, what happens to all the other kids that they recruit who know
they are at best going to be subs and role players?

Jeff
  

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On
Behalf Of Jonathan Hodges
Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2006 4:55 PM
To: NU Sports Listserv
Subject: [NU Sports] NU B-Ball Loss

Just seeing the box score of the game told the whole story, there was no
need to watch.

1. NU shot a tournament record 31 3-pointers, yet hit only 20% of them.
Translation: PSU's zone was inpenetrable, as it has been for the 'Cats all
season.  They could not hit the 3's and therefore did not have a chance.

2. As noted in the AP recap, NU was the Big Ten's lowest scoring and worst
3-point shooting team.  The first was not a huge concern, as NU had the
second-best scoring defense (the 1-3-1 zone was relatively effective).  Of
course, the downfall was the offense since it necessitates hitting the
outside shot (against the zone, in
particular) and that did not happen during the season or in this game.
 Since NU was not able to hit any outside shot, PSU had no reason to come
out of their tight zone.

3. NU couldn't get to the foul line - they never got inside so there was no
reason for PSU to foul.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the court, NU was
forced to foul PSU since they could actually get the ball inside.

Overall observations on the Princeton offense:

- There must be excellent shooters who are not streaky.  NU has some really
good shooters (Vedran, Seacat, Moore), but they have shown that they go on
streaks and can hit 80% one day and 20% another (like today).  If you are
going to run the shot clock down and have to make a long shot with time
running out, there has to be a consistent shooter who can knock it down -
forcing the defense to come out of the zone.  Otherwise, the chances of
winning are all up to chance.

- It will never succeed against a good zone.  NU can beat good man-to-man
teams (or hang very close with them)... see Wisconsin, OSU, Iowa.  They can
never beat a team with a solid zone, no matter how bad the offense is (see
0-3 vs. PSU this year).  This is the fault of the offensive system, period.

- It will almost always get out-rebounded - especially on the offensive end.
There is just nobody around the basket, and therefore almost no chances for
second-chance points.  Especially true if there is a long bomb near the end
of the shot clock, with most of the team dropping back on defense right
after the shot is released.

What does this mean:

As long as NU plays the Princeton offense, they will beat the bad man-to-man
teams, they will hang in there and pull off some upsets against good
man-to-man teams, and they will rarely beat any zone team.  See the past 4
years of play to see what is going on - around .500 every year with a few
marquee wins (especially at home), but NO long win streaks to speak of (i.e.
6+ game win streaks, which is coincidentally the number of consecutive wins
required to win a national championship - if you make the tourney) and of
course NO post season appearances.

Is Carmody a bad coach?  No, I believe, as many on this list do, that he is
an excellent coach who does a great job with what he has and is also a
stand-up guy who produces stand-up student-athletes (meaning the athletes
actually graduate and do rather well).  The defensive schemes are rather
good - NU has been one of the top scoring defenses in the league over his
tenure.  Unfortunately, the offense that he runs does not produce
championship caliber teams (Princeton succeeded because it's in the Ivy
League and managed to pull off some of those big upsets in the tourney).  It
also scares away recruits who would otherwise come here but want to show off
for the NBA, and is over-dependent on the outside shooter, thereby scaring
away any true big men who may actually want to come here.

Solution: Run a different offense the entire season, or at least against
zone teams.  NU seemed bent on running the Princeton offense no matter what
- even though they knew it would fail against the zone, like against PSU.
Since the Princeton offense is rather complicated, it would probably be too
difficult to implement it alongside another offense, but if the choice had
to be made I would prefer seeing NU have a chance in most games rather than
only man-to-man games.

I doubt NU's scheme will change.  NU's team will suffer next year with the
departure of Hachad (an excellent defender) and Vedran (an excellent,
pro-caliber shooter).  The young players are promising, but with this year's
group supposedly the team to go to the tourney for the first time and most
of them now gone, chances are dim.  Barring a huge turnaround from the young
players, next year's season may be very disheartening.

Jonathan

PS: NU probably won't and doesn't deserve to get a bid to the NIT this year
- particularly after this, yet another, blowout loss to PSU.


--
Jonathan W. Hodges
829 Foster St. Apt. 401
Evanston, IL  60201-3259
(847) 736-2449
jonathanwhodges at gmail.com
http://jhodges.org

_______________________________________________
nwu-sports site list
nwu-sports at tssi.com
http://romaine.tssi.com/mailman/listinfo/nwu-sports