[NU Sports] NU B-Ball Loss

[Jonathan Hodges]

Just seeing the box score of the game told the whole story, there was
no need to watch.

1. NU shot a tournament record 31 3-pointers, yet hit only 20% of
them.  Translation: PSU's zone was inpenetrable, as it has been for
the 'Cats all season.  They could not hit the 3's and therefore did
not have a chance.

2. As noted in the AP recap, NU was the Big Ten's lowest scoring and
worst 3-point shooting team.  The first was not a huge concern, as NU
had the second-best scoring defense (the 1-3-1 zone was relatively
effective).  Of course, the downfall was the offense since it
necessitates hitting the outside shot (against the zone, in
particular) and that did not happen during the season or in this game.
 Since NU was not able to hit any outside shot, PSU had no reason to
come out of their tight zone.

3. NU couldn't get to the foul line - they never got inside so there
was no reason for PSU to foul.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the
court, NU was forced to foul PSU since they could actually get the
ball inside.

Overall observations on the Princeton offense:

- There must be excellent shooters who are not streaky.  NU has some
really good shooters (Vedran, Seacat, Moore), but they have shown that
they go on streaks and can hit 80% one day and 20% another (like
today).  If you are going to run the shot clock down and have to make
a long shot with time running out, there has to be a consistent
shooter who can knock it down - forcing the defense to come out of the
zone.  Otherwise, the chances of winning are all up to chance.

- It will never succeed against a good zone.  NU can beat good
man-to-man teams (or hang very close with them)... see Wisconsin, OSU,
Iowa.  They can never beat a team with a solid zone, no matter how bad
the offense is (see 0-3 vs. PSU this year).  This is the fault of the
offensive system, period.

- It will almost always get out-rebounded - especially on the
offensive end.  There is just nobody around the basket, and therefore
almost no chances for second-chance points.  Especially true if there
is a long bomb near the end of the shot clock, with most of the team
dropping back on defense right after the shot is released.

What does this mean:

As long as NU plays the Princeton offense, they will beat the bad
man-to-man teams, they will hang in there and pull off some upsets
against good man-to-man teams, and they will rarely beat any zone
team.  See the past 4 years of play to see what is going on - around
.500 every year with a few marquee wins (especially at home), but NO
long win streaks to speak of (i.e. 6+ game win streaks, which is
coincidentally the number of consecutive wins required to win a
national championship - if you make the tourney) and of course NO post
season appearances.

Is Carmody a bad coach?  No, I believe, as many on this list do, that
he is an excellent coach who does a great job with what he has and is
also a stand-up guy who produces stand-up student-athletes (meaning
the athletes actually graduate and do rather well).  The defensive
schemes are rather good - NU has been one of the top scoring defenses
in the league over his tenure.  Unfortunately, the offense that he
runs does not produce championship caliber teams (Princeton succeeded
because it's in the Ivy League and managed to pull off some of those
big upsets in the tourney).  It also scares away recruits who would
otherwise come here but want to show off for the NBA, and is
over-dependent on the outside shooter, thereby scaring away any true
big men who may actually want to come here.

Solution: Run a different offense the entire season, or at least
against zone teams.  NU seemed bent on running the Princeton offense
no matter what - even though they knew it would fail against the zone,
like against PSU.  Since the Princeton offense is rather complicated,
it would probably be too difficult to implement it alongside another
offense, but if the choice had to be made I would prefer seeing NU
have a chance in most games rather than only man-to-man games.

I doubt NU's scheme will change.  NU's team will suffer next year with
the departure of Hachad (an excellent defender) and Vedran (an
excellent, pro-caliber shooter).  The young players are promising, but
with this year's group supposedly the team to go to the tourney for
the first time and most of them now gone, chances are dim.  Barring a
huge turnaround from the young players, next year's season may be very
disheartening.

Jonathan

PS: NU probably won't and doesn't deserve to get a bid to the NIT this
year - particularly after this, yet another, blowout loss to PSU.


--
Jonathan W. Hodges
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