[NU Sports] Big Ten breakdown ...

[Michael Vance]

I'm going to differ with Stephen on a couple of things (and correct one 
minor error).

First the error: The Buckeyes will finish 9-2/7-1 if they win out, not 10-1

I truly believe, after watching the 'Cats improve on both sides of the ball 
over the last three weeks, that we will win both remaining home games and 
the game @ Illinois to finish 8-3/6-2.  I pretty much agree with the rest 
of your analysis, which makes the final standings, in order by conference 
tie-breakers (which I realize only apply to the BCS bid):

PSU             10-1    7-1 (Fiesta)
dOSU            9-2     7-1 (Citrus; I don't think the second BCS bid is 
happening this year)
NU              8-3     6-2 (If life is fair, we go to Tampa; I know, bowl 
bids aren't fair, but a guy can hope)
Wisconsin       9-2     6-2 (Alamo)
Minnesota       8-3     5-3 (Sun)
Michigan        6-5     4-4 (Music City)
MSU             6-5     3-5 (Motor City)
Iowa            5-6     3-5
Indiana 5-6     2-6
Purdue  3-8     1-7
Illinois                2-9     0-8

Key differences: I think Minny only loses one more and Purdue only wins one 
more.  MSU benefits from the total demoralization of Purdue to squeak into 
bowl qualification, but Iowa slips out by losing Floyd to the Gophers after 
two tough road losses to NU and Wisconsin.  The only upset that Indiana 
pulls is in the Bucket game, and that probably won't be considered an upset 
by then.

I want us playing on New Year's Day.  If we beat Michigan and Iowa, play 
tough in the 'Shoe, and beat Illinois, our offense will be too exciting for 
the Outback to turn down, especially in favor of a team we beat, even if it 
is the Traveling Cheeseheads.

Am I looking through purple colored glasses?  Maybe, but the team I saw 
yesterday can not be stopped cold by any defense in this conference except 
for maybe OSU in the 'Shoe.  And our own defense is improving 
steadily.  They are still giving up a ton of yards between the 20s, but 
they have a +2 turnover margin in conference games and have been generating 
75% of their turnovers in the red zone, so I'm OK with that.

-Michael

At 10/22/2005 06:25 PM, SjT \(Stephen J. Truog\) wrote:
>THE FAVORITES
>=============
>PENN STATE (7-1 / 4-1 * if they win tonight)
>----------
>* REMAINING GAMES: Purdue, Wisconsin, @MSU
>* SjT PROJECTION: 10-1 - Fiesta Bowl vs. Notre
>Dame/UCLA
>
>OHIO STATE (5-2 / 3-1)
>----------
>* REMAINING GAMES: @ Minnesota, Illinois, NU, @ Mich.
>* SjT PROJECTION: 10-1 - Citrus Bowl vs. Florida
>
>WISCONSIN (7-1 / 4-1)
>---------
>* REMAINING GAMES: @ Illinois, @ PSU, Iowa, @ Hawaii
>* SjT PROJECTION: 10-2 - Outback Bowl vs. Tennessee
>
>THE DARKHORSES
>==============
>NORTHWESTERN (5-2 / 3-1)
>------------
>* REMAINING GAMES: Michigan, Iowa, @ OSU, @ Illinois
>* SjT PROJECTION: 7-4 - Music City Bowl vs. S.Carolina
>(though the Alamo vs. Texas Tech might be more fun for
>a promotional standpoint - first one to 100 wins!
>YEEHAW!)
>
>MICHIGAN (5-3 / 3-2)
>--------
>* REMAINING: @ Northwestern, Indiana, Ohio State
>* SjT PROJECTION: 7-4 - Alamo Bowl vs. Oklahoma
>
>BOWL CONTENDERS
>===============
>IOWA (5-3 / 3-2)
>----
>* REMAINING: @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota
>* SjT PROJECTION: 6-5 - Sun Bowl vs. Oregon
>
>MINNESOTA (5-2 / 2-2)
>---------
>* REMAINING: Ohio State, @ Indiana, MSU, @ Iowa
>* SjT PROJECTION: 6-5 - Motor City Bowl vs. Bowling
>Green
>
>MICHIGAN STATE (4-3 / 1-3)
>--------------
>* REMAINING: Indiana, @ Purdue, @ Minnesota, PSU
>* SjT PROJECTION: 5-6
>
>INDIANA (4-3 / 1-3)
>-------
>* REMAINING: @ MSU, Minnesota, @ Michigan, Purdue
>* SjT PROJECTION: 6-5 - Insight vs. California
>
>THE SPOILERS
>============
>PURDUE (2-5 / 0-4)
>------
>* REMAINING: @ PSU, MSU, Illinois, @ Indiana
>* SjT PROJECTION: 4-7
>
>ILLINOIS (2-5 / 0-4)
>--------
>* REMAINING: Wisconsin, @ OSU, @ Purdue, Northwestern
>* SjT PROJECTION: 2-9