[NU Sports] Big Ten breakdown ...

[SjT (Stephen J. Truog)]

Another day for fantastic finishes -- Iowa/Mich OT and
now the defensive slugfest in the SEC (who knew there
was a place in college football that still plays
defense!) between Bama and Rocky Top.

Assuming PSU wins tonight, the Big Ten is starting to
sort out a bit in the race. A brief breakdown ...

THE FAVORITES
=============
PENN STATE (7-1 / 4-1 * if they win tonight)
----------
* REMAINING GAMES: Purdue, Wisconsin, @MSU
* SjT PROJECTION: 10-1 - Fiesta Bowl vs. Notre
Dame/UCLA

The Nits are young, but the schedule is favorable for
them to run the table. Their toughest game --
Wisconsin -- is senior day at Happy Valley (and JoePa
always likes to go out strong at home) and then they
have two weeks to prepare for MSU, and no one in the
Big Ten has defensed the spread attacks as well as
PSU. If they beat the Badgers, they hold all the
tiebreakers and are the team to beat.

OHIO STATE (5-2 / 3-1)
----------
* REMAINING GAMES: @ Minnesota, Illinois, NU, @ Mich.
* SjT PROJECTION: 10-1 - Citrus Bowl vs. Florida

The Bucks have the league's best defense (by
default?), and that should be enough to get them past
a rough road game at Minny and the usual season-ender
in Ann Arbor. They do need to watch out about looking
ahead to Michigan though and overlooking NU in
Columbus, but it's Senior Day there and that will
probably be enough for them to run the table.

The tiebreaker (which is against OSU against both PSU
and Wisconsin because OSU lost out of conference and
lost to PSU) keeps 'em from the automatic BCS berth,
but if Notre Dame slips up and there are two open BCS
spots, don't count out an OSU Orange Bowl berth vs.
Alabama or Georgia.

WISCONSIN (7-1 / 4-1)
---------
* REMAINING GAMES: @ Illinois, @ PSU, Iowa, @ Hawaii
* SjT PROJECTION: 10-2 - Outback Bowl vs. Tennessee

Bucky would love to send Barry out with a Big Ten
title, and if they can win at Happy Valley, they
probably will, since they don't face OSU and hold the
tiebreak (overall record). But that's a tall task.
More likely, they'll win at Illinois, slip up at PSU,
rally for Barry's home finale vs. Iowa and outscore
Hawaii for a January 1 sendoff for Coach Alvarez.

THE DARKHORSES
==============
NORTHWESTERN (5-2 / 3-1)
------------
* REMAINING GAMES: Michigan, Iowa, @ OSU, @ Illinois
* SjT PROJECTION: 7-4 - Music City Bowl vs. S.Carolina
(though the Alamo vs. Texas Tech might be more fun for
a promotional standpoint - first one to 100 wins!
YEEHAW!)

The Cats are the team nobody wants to play right now -
PSU was fortunate to escape and since then, the
offense has been ON FIRE! A split of the homestand
coming up and a win over Illinois would get the Cats
to 7 wins, but lack of respect keeps us from the big
bowls again. If we miss the Alamo, we could slip down
to Nashville because ASU may be headed to the Sun Bowl
yet again. But if Baz stays on fire and the defense
improves, who knows? 8-3 or 9-2 are not out of the
question.

MICHIGAN (5-3 / 3-2)
--------
* REMAINING: @ Northwestern, Indiana, Ohio State
* SjT PROJECTION: 7-4 - Alamo Bowl vs. Oklahoma

If NU is the team nobody wants to face, Michigan is
the team that's back from the dead who people thought
they had gotten rid of. But after a poor start,
Michigan is rebounding and still has the most
offensive talent in the league. They need help to win
the Big Ten, and I don't think they'll run the table,
but they will get 2 of 3, slipping either (hopefully)
at NU or vs. their nemesis from Columbus.

Still, a 7-4 record, a strong finish and the Michigan
name is enough to get the Wolverines the top non-Jan.
1 bowl in the league in a "preseason top 10 but what
happened to 'em" Alamo Bowl vs. Oklahoma. They could
even sneak into Tampa with a 3-0 finish or if we get a
BCS bid in the league.

BOWL CONTENDERS
===============
IOWA (5-3 / 3-2)
----
* REMAINING: @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota
* SjT PROJECTION: 6-5 - Sun Bowl vs. Oregon

The loss to Michigan ended a lot of hopes in Iowa
City, and a tough three game stretch to close the
season makes a bowl bid anything but a lock. They do
get a week off to prepare for the Cats in Evanston,
but then have to face Wisconsin in Barry Alvarez' home
finale and then face a rested Minnesota in the pig
game. I think they win at Kinnick, but slip up on the
road to squeak into the bowl picture.

MINNESOTA (5-2 / 2-2)
---------
* REMAINING: Ohio State, @ Indiana, MSU, @ Iowa
* SjT PROJECTION: 6-5 - Motor City Bowl vs. Bowling
Green

Will the week off be good or bad for the Gophers after
that heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin? The schedule is
tough the rest of the way, with the angry Bucks coming
into the Dome and a road game at Iowa to close things
out. I think they drop both of those and split the two
in the middle (losing on the road at IU but rebounding
at home vs. MSU) to sneak into Detroit for an
entertaining Motor City Bowl.

MICHIGAN STATE (4-3 / 1-3)
--------------
* REMAINING: Indiana, @ Purdue, @ Minnesota, PSU
* SjT PROJECTION: 5-6

Traditionally, MSU has been the most mentally-affected
team in the Big Ten ... and when they get in a funk
after losing the Michigan and OSU games, it stays
around and affects their performance the rest of the
year. I think they still have enough talent to beat
Indiana at home, but will slip up at Purdue and Minny
and blow the home finale to PSU to let a season that
started so promising result in no bowl. If they can
win at Purdue, however, the Motor City Bowl will take
them in a heartbeat over Minnesota.

INDIANA (4-3 / 1-3)
-------
* REMAINING: @ MSU, Minnesota, @ Michigan, Purdue
* SjT PROJECTION: 6-5 - Insight vs. California

The Hoosiers have a different attitude under Hoeppner
(you can tell he was on Walker's staff - he has the
same hard-nosed, us-against-the-world approach) and
are tough enough to win their two remaining home games
and sneak in a bowl. Where is the big question --
could be San Francisco, but I think with the Big Least
struggling, Phoenix starts its Insight Bowl
association with the Big Ten a year early.

THE SPOILERS
============
PURDUE (2-5 / 0-4)
------
* REMAINING: @ PSU, MSU, Illinois, @ Indiana
* SjT PROJECTION: 4-7

The Boilers, once ranked #11, won't make it to a bowl
game (they'll need a perfect finish), but could play a
big role in the conference bowl picture. For starters,
they get a chance to spoil PSU's title hopes next week
and then have big games against MSU and Indiana down
the stretch that Sparty and the Hoosiers will NEED for
any postseason hopes. I think the Boilers win their
two at home and lose the two on the road.

ILLINOIS (2-5 / 0-4)
--------
* REMAINING: Wisconsin, @ OSU, @ Purdue, Northwestern
* SjT PROJECTION: 2-9

The Illini are improved under Zook, and it's tough to
see them losing the rest of the way (but it's even
more difficult to pick who they'll beat, with their
best chance -- Purdue -- on the road ... hopefully
it's not NU in the finale). They won't be in the bowl
hunt, but they could play spoiler to both Wisconsin
and NU, who will be on upset alert when they visit
Champaign.

Of course, I'd LOVE to be wrong, have the Nits slip
somewhere along the way and NU win out and see the
CATS win the league title. The only things for sure --
it's gonna be a WILD finish and our game Saturday
night against Michigan will be HUGE in determining
whether we make it to a first-tier bowl or have to
hope to make a second-tier one.

GO CATS!!!
-SjT

* * * * * * * * *
STEPHEN J. TRUOG
sjtruog at yahoo.com
GO CATS!!!


		
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