[NU Sports] out of control optimism

[Jeff Beamsley]

I haven't wanted to publicly post my pessimism because I truly hope that the
season is much better than I currently appears, at least to me.  Since Brad
has outed my private posts, however, I figured I should at least share the
basis for my concern.

Defense and schedule:

We have an inexperienced secondary and a thin bench on the defensive line.
What that says to me is that we will be weak against the pass early and weak
against the run later in the season.

When you combine that with a murderous schedule where our bye week comes
after the PSU game and before what has to be the toughest six weeks in
college football, it could get ugly real fast.

The only "should win" game on the schedule is Ohio and Frank Solich is going
to have his team ready.  Our team, at least under RW, has a history of not
being ready for MAC opponents, but I give NU the win.

The only other toss-ups on the schedule are NIU, PSU, and Ill.  A win in any
of the other games will be an upset.  Normally, I would say we would win two
out of three of the toss-ups, but I think that we will be so beat-up
mentally and physically by the Ill game that we won't be able to keep up.
NU goes 1-2 against this bunch.

I hate to say it, but I think that we lose every other game on the schedule.
The reason is that these teams are going to force us to stop the run and we
ultimately won't be able to do it.  They will wear out our defense and take
advantage of our thin bench and inexperienced secondary (e.g. last couple
UoM games).  Also Baz has a history of injuries and if he gets dinged-up
during this six week stretch we could really struggle.  

If RW has a new offensive wrinkle up his sleeve that gives us an advantage
similar to 2000 then all bets are off.  Otherwise, I see a season where we
are able to score points, but won't be able to gain control of the games
against quality opponents.

Prediction: 2-9

I hope that we have some defensive diaper dandies who will step up and prove
me wrong.  If so, we could pull an upset or two and go 2-1 against the
toss-ups.  That would give us a 4-7 or maybe even a 5-6 season if we see
some opponent implosions like OSU and Purdue last year.  But if RW is able
to pull off a six win season this year with our schedule, he deserves the
job for as long as he would like to have it.

Jeff

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On
Behalf Of Brad Wilson
Sent: Wednesday, August 24, 2005 3:39 AM
To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: [NU Sports] out of control optimism

I love everybody on the list, I love reading predictions of wins over
Michigan and Perdoo and I love all the optimism ... Coach Roy, I loved the
"good news" care package you sent! ... and then I look at the opponents and
what NU has back and no Indiana or Minnesota and I cringe ... I see 4-7,
with wins over Ohio, NIU, Penn State OR Wisconsin (not both) and Illinois. 

Sure, I suppose it could be 7-4. But -- and let's be honest -- it could also
be Jeff Beamsley's horrific 1-10, though I rather doubt that; Walker always
finds a way to steal a strange one (at MSU, maybe?). But NU could easily
lose to everybody on the schedule after Ohio and if Mike Nolan's right ..
gaaack.

I am not rooting for 4-7, hoping for 4-7 or in any way (ie, have a bad
season and get the coach fired way) desiring 4-7. There is nothing good
about a losing season. I love some of these kids; McGarigle's hustle and
guts are what football is all about; he is an absolute joy to watch and he
never stops. I think Roach and Kadela can be stars, Philmore is my favorite
NU wideout since Bates and I enjoy Baz's moxie and leadership while wishing
for the reincarnation of Zak Kustok.

But 4-7 is what I see. Please let me be wrong on the RIGHT side of that
number!

bw 







"Entertainment is what which you receive without effort. Art is something
where you must make some kind of effort, and you get more than you had
before." -- Charles Wuorinen

"Quis ipsos custodes custodiet?" -- Juvenal


		
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