[NU Sports] out of control optimism

[Joe Thiegs]

As it should be around this time of year, optimism reigns supreme across the
college football landscape.  I am optimistic because there are so many
unknowns out there that we just don't know yet how everything will play out.
I mean, we could wind up in the Rose Bowl.  Okay, that's probably not going
to happen (but it _could_).  After 1995, I'm not counting out any NU team
before the season starts.  That said, I'm expecting a 5-6 record this year.
I see wins over Ohio, NIU, Wisconsin, Illinois, and one other Big Ten team,
though I'm not sure who it will be.  Personally, I was thinking we'd lose to
Penn State and pick up an upset win somewhere else, but hearing some of the
negative news out of State College, maybe we pick up a win against the
Nittany Lions too to go 6-5.  I think 5-6 is more likely, however.  Northern
Illinois' backfield really scares me, and I wouldn't be too shocked or call
the season over if we lose to them (I still think we beat them).  I'd rather
have lower expectations and be happily surprised than to have really high
expectations and have them crash (which has happened before).  If I thought
the 'Cats should go 8-3 and they end up going 6-5, it would be a big
disappointment but if I'm expecting 4-7 or 5-6, then 6-5 (and a bowl game)
is great!  Don't get me wrong, I'm not content to go 6-5 every year--I'd
like to be contending for the Big Ten title at least every 3-4 years--but
5-6 wins is not too bad as a low point, historically speaking.

BTW, I think having Minnesota off the schedule this year is a very good
thing.  Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I think the Gophers are going to
surprise some people and end up a lot better than the 6th- or 7th-place Big
Ten finish where most prognosticators are pegging them.  Last year was
supposed to be their year, and when they imploded in the second half of the
season, a few writers who were high on them got egg on their faces.  Not
many are willing to risk making the same mistake twice.  (This is the
reverse of the Iowa effect--every year I think the Hawkeyes are going to
have a down year, Ferentz works some magic and Iowa is at or near the top of
the conference.  Personally, I don't see how Iowa can be as good as they
were last season with all of their losses, particularly on the d-line, but
I'm not willing to predict a down year for Captain Kirk, at least not too
publicly.)  In any event, I don't see a significant drop-off in any of the
Gophers' positions, and I see some significant upgrades on the defense,
despite the graduation of a decent corner.

Go 'Cats!

-Joe

-----Original Message-----
From: nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:nwu-sports-bounces at tssi.com] On
Behalf Of Brad Wilson
Sent: Wednesday, August 24, 2005 2:39 AM
To: nwu-sports at tssi.com
Subject: [NU Sports] out of control optimism


I love everybody on the list, I love reading
predictions of wins over Michigan and Perdoo and I
love all the optimism ... Coach Roy, I loved the "good
news" care package you sent! ... and then I look at
the opponents and what NU has back and no Indiana or
Minnesota and I cringe ... I see 4-7, with wins over
Ohio, NIU, Penn State OR Wisconsin (not both) and
Illinois. 

Sure, I suppose it could be 7-4. But -- and let's be
honest -- it could also be Jeff Beamsley's horrific
1-10, though I rather doubt that; Walker always finds
a way to steal a strange one (at MSU, maybe?). But NU
could easily lose to everybody on the schedule after
Ohio and if Mike Nolan's right .. gaaack.

I am not rooting for 4-7, hoping for 4-7 or in any way
(ie, have a bad season and get the coach fired way)
desiring 4-7. There is nothing good about a losing
season. I love some of these kids; McGarigle's hustle
and guts are what football is all about; he is an
absolute joy to watch and he never stops. I think
Roach and Kadela can be stars, Philmore is my favorite
NU wideout since Bates and I enjoy Baz's moxie and
leadership while wishing for the reincarnation of Zak
Kustok.

But 4-7 is what I see. Please let me be wrong on the
RIGHT side of that number!

bw 







"Entertainment is what which you receive without effort. Art is something
where you must make some kind of effort, and you get more than you had
before." -- Charles Wuorinen

"Quis ipsos custodes custodiet?" -- Juvenal


		
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