[NU Sports] Non-conference scheduling - redux

[mlinhardt at netzero.com]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I believe my point about 2 guaranteed wins was not understood.

My definition of a guaranteed win is:
- Opponent does not require a HOME game
- Opponent comes into the game as a major dog

Ohio U and NIU are the ONLY "guaranteed" wins in the schedules for the next 7 years.  NIU might even be too good, given their records over the previous years to be regarded as a "guaranteed" win.

Duke, Vandy, Air Force, TCU, Syracuse, etc. are not guaranteed wins.  The reason why they are not guaranteed wins is simple they come into the game regarding us a "guaranteed" win.  That sounds like a toss-up game to me.

I think we should exclude toss-up games against non-major conferences.  Throw out TCU and Air Force.  We don't get the credit for the win and we get punished for the loss.  Both demand home games.  I would not play them unless we get a 2 home games to 1 home game, which will never happen.

In a 11 game schedule we need 2 guaranteed wins to even have a chance at becoming bowl eligible.  We can't expect to dig ourselves out of a hole during the conference schedule.  If we could achieve a 4-4 record in the big ten consistently I think most listers would be overjoyed.  That is what every consistent Big Ten bowl eligible team achieves -- Purdue, Minnesota, MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa.  Michigan and Ohio State are anomalies dominant for decades on end.  Penn State post Paterno has to decide which group it will be in, but it definitely will not stick in the cellar.  Illinois and Indiana will not be bad forever, nor will Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin be "decent" forever.  Many are just fluctuations in the coaching.  Wisconsin was pretty poor before Alvarez.  Same way with Purdue before Tiller.  Note:  I excluded MSU and Iowa, because I believe they are historically(past 40 years)upper-middle teams(5-3/6-2 big ten results).

It might not be good(or any) TV, but keep the non-conference schedule easy and we could be bowling 9 years out of 10.

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