[NU Sports] Not enough bowl-eligible teams?

[Michael Vance]

>Northwestern [6-5] (vs. Hawaii)
>Syracuse [5-5] (vs. Boston College)
>South Florida [4-5] (vs. Memphis, Pittsburgh)
>Southern Miss [5-4] (vs. UAB, California)
>TCU [5-5] (vs. Tulane)
>Tulane [4-5] (vs. TCU, Louisville)
>Hawaii [5-5] (vs. Northwestern, Michigan State)

For the record, let's update with results of Saturday's games, reordering 
by record/eligibility and adding MSU:

Syracuse [6-5] (Regular season over; eligible)
Southern Miss [6-4] (vs. California; eligible regardless)
Hawaii [6-5] (vs. Michigan State; needs win to be eligible)
Northwestern [6-6] (Regular season over)
Tulane [5-5] (vs. Louisville; technically on the bubble, but shouldn't 
finish eligible)
MSU [5-6] (vs. Hawaii; could make it to .500 and the bubble with a win)
TCU [5-6] (Regular season over; not eligible)
South Florida [4-6] (vs. Pittsburgh; not eligible)

By conference, here is the breakdown of bowl-eligible/on-the-bubble teams:

ACC: 7 eligible / 0 on the bubble
Big East: 5 / 0
Big Ten: 6 / 2 (NU, MSU; I'm counting potential 6-6 teams as bubble)
Big XII: 7 / 0
Conf-USA: 5 / 1 (Tulane)
MAC: 6 / 0
MWC: 3 / 0
Pac-10: 5 / 0
SEC: 7 / 0
Sun Belt: 2 / 0
WAC: 3 / 1 (Hawaii)
Independents: 2 / 0

By my count, that's 58 eligible teams already.  Take out Clemson and South 
Carolina, that leaves exactly 56 with Tulane and Hawaii as the only bubble 
teams with a mathematical chance of being over .500.  With the Cardinals as 
Tulane's only remaining game, I'm not counting on that being a win.  I 
didn't account for anyone who may be on probation.  Are there any of those?

So the NCAA will have a choice: Force the bowls to fill the stands with 
MAC, Sun Belt, MWC, and WAC teams, or make some kind of exception to the 
rule.  From the standpoint of principle, they should stick to their 
guns.  56 slots, 56 teams; sounds like the system worked.  <smirk, snigger>

If they make an exception they should start with the one that's used in 
12-game seasons, i.e. a .500 team can be used to fulfill a conference's 
contractual ties.  The thing is, because most schools played an 11-game 
schedule this year, that exception would only affect NU and (if they beat 
Hawaii next week) MSU.  Of course, the Big Ten won't have enough 
contractual slots to actually use both of those teams, so NU could still be 
the odd man out if Sparty beats Hawaii and goes to Detroit.  If MSU loses, 
that forces us to the MCB for the second straight year.

If the NCAA says that any 6-6 team can go, that still only affects NU, MSU, 
and Hawaii if MSU wins and only us if Hawaii wins.  The only difference 
between "6-6 to fill contractual ties" and "any 6-6" is that with the 
former, Hawaii could be left out if they beat the Spartans.

The next most-logical exception would be allowing 6-6 or 5-6 teams with 
winning (or maybe .500) conference records to fulfill conference 
tie-ins.  But that would only affect NU and a handful of teams from the 
lesser conferences that don't have conference tie-ins.  Even if you 
eliminate the tie-in requirement, most are highly unlikely to get picked 
anyway.  (BYU would be the only one with any pedigree or name 
recognition.)  The other minor variation on this is 6-6 or 5-6 overall and 
.500 or better conference records, but the only name team that adds is Oregon.

Bottom line?  If the NCAA makes any kind of exception, unless it's 
something strange like 6-6 or 5-6 with a winning non-conference record, 
then NU should be eligible.  Whether we're in depends on the blazer 
boys.  But they really shouldn't make an exception if they have the 
numbers.  Between Utah in the BCS and this, let it be the year of the 
little guy.

Michael, CAS '91
mailto:michael at vance.com