[NU Sports] Not enough bowl-eligible teams?

[JHCCLARK at aol.com]

In a message dated 11/26/2004 8:45:42 PM Eastern Standard Time,  
nolan at romaine.tssi.com writes:

ABC  mentioned at one point today that at the moment there aren't  enough
bowl-eligible teams to fill all the bowl  games.



Hmm, let's do the math.
 
28 bowls, 56 slots.
 
By the latest count Friday night, there are 54 bowl-eligible teams.   
Arkansas and Nebraska just got dinged, so that leaves the following:
 
Northwestern [6-5] (vs. Hawaii)
Syracuse [5-5] (vs. Boston College)
South Florida [4-5] (vs. Memphis, Pittsburgh)
Southern Miss [5-4] (vs. UAB, California)
TCU [5-5] (vs. Tulane)
Tulane [4-5] (vs. TCU, Louisville)
Hawaii [5-5] (vs. Northwestern, Michigan State)
 
So, either Northwestern or Hawaii MIGHT get a slot, but not both and  
possibly neither (Northwestern loss to Hawaii, Hawaii loss to Michigan  State).
 
 
Either TCU or Tulane MIGHT get a slot, but not both and possibly neither  
(TCU loss to Tulane, Tulane loss to Louisville).
 
Do we see Syracuse beating BC?  Probably not.
 
Do we see South Florida beating both Memphis and Pitt?  Probably  not.
 
Southern Miss beating UAB or Cal?  It's a possibility, but ...
 
A.  So, it is possible that there will be as few as 54 or as many as  59 
teams for 56 slots.  The best guesstimate is 57 (Northwestern, TCU and  Southern 
Miss).  But I can see Northwestern and Southern Miss losing, so  yes, the 
possibility is real that there will only be 55 teams, one short.
 
B.  In jumps the NCAA, and I bet that they will allow a 6-6 team to  fill 
it's conference's contracted bowl slot.  As far as I can tell,  Northwestern, 
Hawaii and Michigan State are the only teams that could/will be  6-6, and all the 
Big Ten spots are taken.  Therefore (and remember, the  scenario only occurs 
if Northwestern loses to Hawaii and Michigan State beats  Hawaii) Hawaii goes 
over NU and MSU to fill the WAC's open slot (which occurs  when the Liberty 
Bowl contractually exercises its option to choose Boise  State to fill Utah's 
spot).
 
C.  But rumor has it that the Potato Bowl in Boise will  exercise ITS option 
not to choose a WAC team if it loses Boise State, so  technically the WAC has 
no open slots.  Then I bet the NCAA will allow  any 6-6 team to be bowl 
eligible, at the choice of the bowl.  I think  Hawaii still gets the nod to fill the 
Hawaii Bowl slot against  UAB.  
 
D.  There would be a big stink if they allowed a 5-6 team to fill it's  
conference's bowl slot.  But that would allow Nebraska back in to keep its  
(then-tainted) bowl streak alive.  Or Maryland, Wake, NC State, Oregon,  Wazzu, 
Arkansas...
 
But realistically, there will be 57 bowl-eligible teams in the end.   So I 
pick "A", Regis, final answer.