[NU Sports] Overconfidence? (used to be Purdue to Sun Bowl)

[sjtruog at jorsm.com]

> Roy,
>
> Thanks for bringing this bowl discussion back into perspective.
>
> I would like to hear a little more about his team and what the match-ups
> look like, and a little less about all the fun we're going to have when
> we win.

Now now - in every one of my bowl messages, I've been careful to include
IF we beat Hawaii and have never looked ahead.

Hawaii's offense definitely presents a huge test -- especially at their
place and with our secondary. They top 300 yards per game by air alone.

However, their defense has also allowed some astounding numbers, an
average rushing yardage of 262 per game and 461 total yards per game.
Boise State and Fresno State each shredded the Rainbows for 69 and 70
points. Hawaii also allowed 41 to Rice, 51 to UTEP. The biggest difference
- all of those were on the road. At home, the highest total was 35 by FAMU
in the opener.

This could be a TCU-like game, IMO, where it's a wide-open WAC style
scorefest. Hopefully with everything on the line, NU is more focused and
shows that they have matured since that opener. Hopefully we also get Noah
going early and often to chew some clock and bring some smashmouth
football to the islands.

I don't really think anyone's looking past Hawaii. We're getting excited
about the possibilities of a fifth bowl in ten years, but we know that in
order to accomplish that, we need to win at Hawaii. What we can be excited
about, however, is a 5-3 league mark (after 4-4 last year, two straight
non-losing league seasons), a solo fourth place finish and a 5-game home
winning streak.

As for the 6-6 petition discussion ... interesting talk, since it appears
that they're either gonna need to get some 6-6 petitions this year or send
half the MAC bowling (and as much as I think the MAC is underrated, it's
also not as disrespected as Joe Novak's whining would make you think --
they didn't deserve the Motor City Bowl over us last year and they
couldn't beat mid-level BCS league teams like Maryland and Iowa State this
year). I think that if the Big Ten would throw its weight into the waiver
games, though, it would be for a possibly 6-6 MSU team and not a 6-6 NU
team because we just went to Detroit and Motown would LOVE to have Sparty.

But there are gonna be a lot of bids out there now -- especially with the
South Carolina/Clemson decision. That's a pretty bold move - gotta give
those schools some credit. Can you imagine FSU and Florida declining bowl
invites to punish their players for their semi-annual pregame brawl? The
SC/Clem move means the ACC and SEC will both not fulfill bowl
requirements. They sent a message to their players and to the league that
will hit pocketbooks. That took some guts - I'll give 'em that.

So if we do win (note the IF:) ), our Nashville opponent would appear to
be 'Bama. But we'll see how the SEC shakes down ... with Florida's win
over FSU and if Tennessee gets crushed again by Auburn, the league may
send the Gators to Tampa (UGa to Orlando and LSU to Dallas on Jan. 1),
leaving the Peach to pick between a resurgent Tide and a Vols team that
stunk up the Dome last year pouting about their BCS snub. That might mean
that Tennessee slips all the way to Nashville. Ready for another round of
Rocky Top?:)

Nothing's for sure - but it is fun to talk scenarios and have Northwestern
included in that talk at this time of year!:)

GO CATS!!! BEAT HAWAII!!!
-SjT