[Husker] Average 4-year Recruiting Rankings and WL%

[Dave Ratchford]

Paul, keep up the good work.  It's interesting stuff. Particularly this time of year.

Dave

On Jan 31, 2013, at 9:03 PM, Scott Stewart <fourtwophd at gmail.com> wrote:

> Paul,
> 
> Be careful when using correlations to imply "effect" or causation.
> Correlation does not imply causations. There is a large correlation between
> number of penguin populations and temperature and (my favorite) number of
> pirates in the Caribbean and global warming though no one would believe
> that penguins or pirates make the climate cold.
> 
> It is equally likely that success is related to high recruiting classes, or
> that a third factor (climate, coaching, conference) is a co-variate.
> 
> Scott
> 
> 
> On Thu, Jan 31, 2013 at 1:32 PM, Paul Dalen <quesohusker at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> I forgot to mention that for the 8 years looked at, when comparing the
>> 4-year recruiting rank averages, 6 of 8 times the higher ranked team of the
>> two won the National Championship.  The exceptions were Texas in 2005 (an
>> extremely close game and generally accepted upset) and Alabama in 2009
>> (remember Colt McCoy went down minutes into the game).
>> 
>> My next project is to reject/fail to reject this hypothesis:  Recruiting
>> affects a great deal at the most elite levels of college football, but that
>> effect diminishes significantly outside the Top-5 or Top-10.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On Thu, Jan 31, 2013 at 12:25 PM, Paul Dalen <quesohusker at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> 
>>> Looking at teams that have played in the BCS Championship Game, they have
>>> the following 4-year recruiting averages:
>>> 
>>> ................................Top
>> 100..............................5-stars....................4-stars........................3-stars......................4-year
>>> Recruiting Rank Average
>>> BCS 1&2....................5.3 per year.....................3.3 per
>>> year...............10.0 per year...............7.6 per
>>> year........................9.8
>>> AP Top 25..................2.3 per year.....................1.4 per
>>> year................5.6 per year................9.7 per
>>> year.........................31.7
>>> 
>>> BCS CG participants average twice the number of top-100s, 5-stars, and
>>> 4-stars as the rest of the AP Final Top-25.
>>> 
>>> It's well established that exceptional recruiting does not predict final
>>> record or ranking, but final ranking, particularly for the highest ranked
>>> teams, predicts a great deal about sustained recruiting.
>>> 
>>> Paul
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> On Tue, Jan 29, 2013 at 4:36 PM, Skylar Dodds <sklarbodds at cox.net>
>> wrote:
>>> 
>>>> Lastly, and probably the most convincing start of them all for
>>>> recruiting.  Not one team... Not one has won a BCS title without
>> consistent
>>>> top 15 recruiting leading up to it.  And most average in the top 10.
>> That
>>>> is NOT an accident.  Yes, some teams can vastly outperform their
>> ranking,
>>>> but there's zero question those are exceptions or outliers.  Boise State
>>>> had been an example for a while, Kansas State this year, etc.  But make
>> no
>>>> mistake, there is a strong correlation between recruiting and top 25
>>>> finishes, and especially if you want a championship.
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