[Husker] Average 4-year Recruiting Rankings and WL%

[Scott Stewart]

Paul,

Be careful when using correlations to imply "effect" or causation.
Correlation does not imply causations. There is a large correlation between
number of penguin populations and temperature and (my favorite) number of
pirates in the Caribbean and global warming though no one would believe
that penguins or pirates make the climate cold.

It is equally likely that success is related to high recruiting classes, or
that a third factor (climate, coaching, conference) is a co-variate.

Scott


On Thu, Jan 31, 2013 at 1:32 PM, Paul Dalen <quesohusker at gmail.com> wrote:

> I forgot to mention that for the 8 years looked at, when comparing the
> 4-year recruiting rank averages, 6 of 8 times the higher ranked team of the
> two won the National Championship.  The exceptions were Texas in 2005 (an
> extremely close game and generally accepted upset) and Alabama in 2009
> (remember Colt McCoy went down minutes into the game).
>
> My next project is to reject/fail to reject this hypothesis:  Recruiting
> affects a great deal at the most elite levels of college football, but that
> effect diminishes significantly outside the Top-5 or Top-10.
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jan 31, 2013 at 12:25 PM, Paul Dalen <quesohusker at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > Looking at teams that have played in the BCS Championship Game, they have
> > the following 4-year recruiting averages:
> >
> > ................................Top
> >
> 100..............................5-stars....................4-stars........................3-stars......................4-year
> > Recruiting Rank Average
> > BCS 1&2....................5.3 per year.....................3.3 per
> > year...............10.0 per year...............7.6 per
> > year........................9.8
> > AP Top 25..................2.3 per year.....................1.4 per
> > year................5.6 per year................9.7 per
> > year.........................31.7
> >
> > BCS CG participants average twice the number of top-100s, 5-stars, and
> > 4-stars as the rest of the AP Final Top-25.
> >
> > It's well established that exceptional recruiting does not predict final
> > record or ranking, but final ranking, particularly for the highest ranked
> > teams, predicts a great deal about sustained recruiting.
> >
> > Paul
> >
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Jan 29, 2013 at 4:36 PM, Skylar Dodds <sklarbodds at cox.net>
> wrote:
> >
> >> Lastly, and probably the most convincing start of them all for
> >> recruiting.  Not one team... Not one has won a BCS title without
> consistent
> >> top 15 recruiting leading up to it.  And most average in the top 10.
>  That
> >> is NOT an accident.  Yes, some teams can vastly outperform their
> ranking,
> >> but there's zero question those are exceptions or outliers.  Boise State
> >> had been an example for a while, Kansas State this year, etc.  But make
> no
> >> mistake, there is a strong correlation between recruiting and top 25
> >> finishes, and especially if you want a championship.
> >>
> >>
> >
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