[Husker] BP and TO - the first five seasons

Thu Jan 3 12:34:08 CST 2013

Wow.  That's awesome.

Here are some somewhat simple to read numbers from the 2008 - 2012
seasons.  (Results of the 1973 - 1977 seasons not included :)

Total games:
Won 48 Lost 20  Winning percentage  70%

Games vs. Opponents from AQ conferences
Won 33 Lost 20 Winning percentage 62%

Games vs. Top 25
Won  8 Lost 12 Winning Percentage 40%

Games vs. Top 10
Won 2  Lost 8 Winning Percentage 20%

Disclaimer - I'm not a math guy or a stat guy or a research guy.  May be
some errors in there but not egregious I think.

Now I gotta go check to see the latest on Lebron, Tim, and the cliff.

On Thu, Jan 3, 2013 at 10:44 AM, Paul Dalen <quesohusker at gmail.com> wrote:

> Available here:
>
> http://forum.huskermax.com/vbbs/showthread.php?43117-yet-another-TO-BP-comparison
>
> or here:
>
> http://huskermath.blogspot.com/2013/01/comparing-bp-and-tos-first-five-seasons.html
>
> ________________________________
>
>
> Taking a quantitative look at the TO's and BP's first five seasons, I think
> it's reasonable to say that both are similar, with TO having outperformed
> BP in most areas.
>
> Note: all charts are presented with seasons as rows and months as columns,
> with bowl games and CCGs presented separate from NOV/DEC games. All numbers
> are averages.
>
> 1. First, consider what each had to work with. To do that, I looked at the
> previous three seasons before the coaching changes.
>
> TO took over a team that had won 2 NCs and had a combined win percentage of
> .92. BP took over at team that missed a bowl game twice in three years and
> had a combined win total of .58. Clearly, TO had a head start as a coach.
>
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>
> 2. Next, let's look at each coaches win percentage. Overall, both a very
> similar, with TO holding a slight edge at .77 to BP's .71. The biggest
> difference, IMO, is the record in bowl and CCGs. TO had a .80 record in
> these, BP has an abysmal .29 record. If BP had a similar record in bowl /
> CCG, he would probably be ahead of TO in win percentage for the first five
> years.
>
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>
> 3. Now, let's look at the average rank of opponents. For opponents not
> ranked in the AP Top 20/25, I used the calculated rankings at
> http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm. These are end of season rankings,
> so
> they aren't a perfect proxy, but in the absence of anything else, they
> serve the purpose.
>
> What jumps out at me is that TO's opponents are, on average, 5-10 points
> higher ranked. When I look at the teams each played, I believe this is
> accounted for by the expansion of the season by 2 games...games which are
> almost always filled with cupcake teams ranked in the 80-125 range and
> played in the non-conf season. TO played 13 teams ranked >=80. BP played 17
> teams ranked >= 80. TO played 6 of those 13 in Aug/Sep, for an average of
> 1.2 per non-conference season. BP played 11 of the 17 in Aug/Sep, for an
> average of 2.2 per non-conf season.
>
> BP has an win percentage advantage in the non-conf. This is a direct result
> of the difficulty of expanded number of low ranked teams played in the
> non-conf. What is significant in this chart is the average rank of bowl/CCG
> opponents. TO's opponent's ave rank was 11, BP's was 19. And yet, TO's win
> percentage is .80 in these games and BP's is .29. TO has a clear
> performance advantage here, but it should be considered in the light of
> point #1 - what each coach had to work with at the start of the five years.
>
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>
> 4. Fourth, consider the average MOV in each loss. For TO, I've included
> ties in the average MOV calculation.
>
> BP's average MOV is much worse in Oct and in bowl/CCGs. Also, the MOV in
> BP's losses in three of the five seasons were by -20, -20, and -21 points.
> It is a serious concern when doesn't just get beat, but an average, gets
> blown out by 3 TDs. IMO, this is the most significant insight of this
> analysis. It may be the fatal flaw in BP's tenure at NU as well.
>
> It's worth noting, though, that TO's losses in Nov/Dec were pretty bad as
> well. Three of the five years he had average MOV in those losses of -27,
> -25, and -31. I don't remember much (okay, anything) about these seasons),
> but I'm sure these blowouts didn't sit well with NU fans.
>
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>
> 5. Lastly, consider the average MOV in wins.
>
> The average MOV in the non-conf is identical, but the ave MOV in Nov/Dec is
> 25 for TO and 12 for BP. Overall, the ave MOV is pretty close...24 for TO
> and 20 for BP.
>
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>
> 6. In conclusion, the results indicate that TO outperformed BP in almost
> all areas for the first five years. His ave opponent difficulty was greater
> than BP's and his win percentage against better teams is much better than
> BP's. Still, I think that the starting point for TO greatly impacted this.
> The only want to know for certain is to do this again in five years.
>
> IMO, the numbers indicate that BP has done more than enough to make any
> talk of firing him utter fantasy...for at least a couple of years.
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