[Husker] BP and TO - the first five seasons

[Paul Dalen]

Available here:
http://forum.huskermax.com/vbbs/showthread.php?43117-yet-another-TO-BP-comparison

or here:
http://huskermath.blogspot.com/2013/01/comparing-bp-and-tos-first-five-seasons.html

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Taking a quantitative look at the TO's and BP's first five seasons, I think
it's reasonable to say that both are similar, with TO having outperformed
BP in most areas.

Note: all charts are presented with seasons as rows and months as columns,
with bowl games and CCGs presented separate from NOV/DEC games. All numbers
are averages.

1. First, consider what each had to work with. To do that, I looked at the
previous three seasons before the coaching changes.

TO took over a team that had won 2 NCs and had a combined win percentage of
.92. BP took over at team that missed a bowl game twice in three years and
had a combined win total of .58. Clearly, TO had a head start as a coach.

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2. Next, let's look at each coaches win percentage. Overall, both a very
similar, with TO holding a slight edge at .77 to BP's .71. The biggest
difference, IMO, is the record in bowl and CCGs. TO had a .80 record in
these, BP has an abysmal .29 record. If BP had a similar record in bowl /
CCG, he would probably be ahead of TO in win percentage for the first five
years.

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3. Now, let's look at the average rank of opponents. For opponents not
ranked in the AP Top 20/25, I used the calculated rankings at
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm. These are end of season rankings, so
they aren't a perfect proxy, but in the absence of anything else, they
serve the purpose.

What jumps out at me is that TO's opponents are, on average, 5-10 points
higher ranked. When I look at the teams each played, I believe this is
accounted for by the expansion of the season by 2 games...games which are
almost always filled with cupcake teams ranked in the 80-125 range and
played in the non-conf season. TO played 13 teams ranked >=80. BP played 17
teams ranked >= 80. TO played 6 of those 13 in Aug/Sep, for an average of
1.2 per non-conference season. BP played 11 of the 17 in Aug/Sep, for an
average of 2.2 per non-conf season.

BP has an win percentage advantage in the non-conf. This is a direct result
of the difficulty of expanded number of low ranked teams played in the
non-conf. What is significant in this chart is the average rank of bowl/CCG
opponents. TO's opponent's ave rank was 11, BP's was 19. And yet, TO's win
percentage is .80 in these games and BP's is .29. TO has a clear
performance advantage here, but it should be considered in the light of
point #1 - what each coach had to work with at the start of the five years.

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4. Fourth, consider the average MOV in each loss. For TO, I've included
ties in the average MOV calculation.

BP's average MOV is much worse in Oct and in bowl/CCGs. Also, the MOV in
BP's losses in three of the five seasons were by -20, -20, and -21 points.
It is a serious concern when doesn't just get beat, but an average, gets
blown out by 3 TDs. IMO, this is the most significant insight of this
analysis. It may be the fatal flaw in BP's tenure at NU as well.

It's worth noting, though, that TO's losses in Nov/Dec were pretty bad as
well. Three of the five years he had average MOV in those losses of -27,
-25, and -31. I don't remember much (okay, anything) about these seasons),
but I'm sure these blowouts didn't sit well with NU fans.

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5. Lastly, consider the average MOV in wins.

The average MOV in the non-conf is identical, but the ave MOV in Nov/Dec is
25 for TO and 12 for BP. Overall, the ave MOV is pretty close...24 for TO
and 20 for BP.

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6. In conclusion, the results indicate that TO outperformed BP in almost
all areas for the first five years. His ave opponent difficulty was greater
than BP's and his win percentage against better teams is much better than
BP's. Still, I think that the starting point for TO greatly impacted this.
The only want to know for certain is to do this again in five years.

IMO, the numbers indicate that BP has done more than enough to make any
talk of firing him utter fantasy...for at least a couple of years.