[Husker] Sigh

[Skylar Dodds]

Wow, great numbers Steve.  Well done. 

I know in my mind 5-3 or 6-2 would have been my guess.  This team has some
talent, but a lot of it is young or injured and we seem to have some weak
spots (on defense surprisingly).  

I know from my end I didn't have much hope this team would drastically
improve their record from the last 2 seasons.  I figured out biggest
weaknesses would be offensive line (which has really stepped up as of late)
and depth at QB and RB.   RB seems to be the least of our worries now and
the OL gives me hope.

The DL has struggled a lot more than I expected and honestly I feel a bit
naïve for not seeing the DB troubles coming (I mean, how can you NOT expect
to take a big step back from Prince, Gomes and Hagg).

There are some positive signs for the future, but we've got to find some
consistency in the defensive backfield and unfortunately we lose LaVonte
after this year.  

--
Skylar

-----Original Message-----
From: husker-bounces at tssi.com [mailto:husker-bounces at tssi.com] On Behalf Of
Steve Reichenbach
Sent: Tuesday, September 27, 2011 9:47 AM
To: awolfson0 at gmail.com; gobigredlist at gmail.com
Cc: strongtodd at msn.com; husker at tssi.com
Subject: Re: [Husker] Sigh

Using the odds of an NU victory in each the remaining games as
predicted by Massey's website:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5279&s=107811
Date         Opponent       Rk   Result	PF PA	
Fri 11/25/11   Iowa          35   78 %	35 26
Sat 11/19/11 @ Michigan	     15   50 %	29 28
Sat 11/12/11 @ Penn St	     24   59 %	24 21
Sat 11/05/11   Northwestern  82   96 %	41 17
Sat 10/29/11   Michigan St   38   80 %	31 21
Sat 10/22/11 @ Minnesota    114   95 %	38 17
Sat 10/08/11   Ohio St       37   80 %	30 19
Sat 10/01/11 @ Wisconsin      9   24 %	27 34

I computed the probabilities for of NU's conference record:

0-8:  0.00%
1-7:  0.02%
2-6:  0.32%
3-5:  2.77%
4-4: 12.29%
5-3: 28.72%
6-2: 34.17%
7-1: 18.50%
8-0:  3.22%

So according to Massey, the odds of NU finishing with fewer than
three losses is about 56%, the odds of finishing with more than
three losses is about 15%, and the odds of finishing with three
losses is about 29%.  The expected record (mean) is 5.62 - 2.28. 

>From these numbers, I reiterate that I think the expectation of
5-3 is rather pessimistic and the expectation of 6-2 is slightly
optimistic.  Maybe it's better to be pessimistic and be happy
with something better.  Maybe it's better to have an optimistic
outlook.  Either way, those are the numbers as best as they can
be predicted.

>From these numbers, by far, NU's toughest game is Wisconsin.
Otherwise, there are games (@Penn St and @Michigan) that are near
a toss-up, two games (Ohio St and @Iowa) that NU is the clear
favorite, and two games (@Minnesota and Northwestern) that  NU is
a heavy favorite.  Frankly, I was happy to see that the odds of
7 or more wins are so high --- better than 1 in 5.

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