[Husker] Odds ahead

Wed Oct 26 13:15:03 CDT 2011

Here are updated odds from Massey.

NU: MSU 0.55, Northwestern 0.97, PSU 0.56, UM 0.40, Iowa 0.89

Nebraska
0-5:  0.04%
1-4:  1.71%
2-3: 15.39%
3-2: 37.57%
4-1: 34.66%
5-0: 10.64%
Expected conference record: 5.37-2.63

Michigan St
0-5:  0.00%
1-4:  0.01%
2-3:  1.06%
3-2: 15.22%
4-1: 51.32%
5-0: 32.38%
Expected conference record: 7.15-0.85

Michigan
0-5:  0.07%
1-4:  1.51%
2-3: 10.00%
3-2: 29.16%
4-1: 39.29%
5-0: 19.97%
Expected conference record: 5.66-2.34

If NU beats MSU, the expected records are 5.82-2.18 and 6.70-1.30.
According to Massey, even if NU wins Saturday, MSU will be the fovorite
from the division because their odds of losing any other games is small.
So, NU likely has to win out to grab a spot in the Championship game.
The road to the conference championship is looking tougher with how
well UM and PSU have played.

> The Husker's were idle, but it was a good week odds-wise.  Massey's
> odds on beating Michigan St in Lincoln went down, but only 67% to 62%.
> Meanwhile, the odds of beating Michigan improved from 31% to 42%, the
> odds of beating Penn St went from 49% to 58%, the odds of beating Iowa
> went from 83% to 88%, and the odds of beating Northwestern went from
> 93% to 96%.  The odds for Minnesota remained at 97%.  So, the predicted
> record went from 9.2-2.8 to 9.43-2.57.  The odds of 10-2 or better
> now is nearly 50%.
> 
> 0-6:  0.00%
> 1-5:  0.09%
> 2-4:  1.91%
> 3-3: 13.89%
> 4-2: 35.51%
> 5-1: 36.23%
> 6-0: 12.38%
> 4.43-1.57
> 
> Michigan St's predicted conference record is 6.22-1.78, compared
> to 5.43-2.57 for Nebraska.  Even though Michigan lost, they are
> favored in every remaining game (unlike MSU which is the underdog
> against Wisconsin and at NU and Nebraska which is the underdog
> @Michigan) and their predicted conference record is 5.57-2.43.
> 
> Nebraska may have to beat both MSU and Michigan to win the division.
> Likely, MSU only needs to split against NU and Wisconsin (if it wins
> its other games) and Michigan only needs to beat Nebraska (if it wins
> its other games).
> 
> Even though both NU and MSU control their destiny, I think Michigan
> is the favorite, being favored in every game.  On the other hand,
> if MSU beats either Wisconsin or NU, they don't have another very
> tough game on the schedule (the toughest is 72% @Iowa).  If NU
> can beat MSU, they still have to win at Penn St to setup a showdown
> with Michigan.
> 
> > Here's how Massey's odds have changed since I first looked at them
> > before the Wisconsin game:
> > 
> > Week  Iowa  Mich  PSU   NW    MSU   UMN   OSU   UW
> > 5     0.78  0.50  0.59  0.96  0.80  0.95  0.80  0.24
> > 6     0.73  0.37  0.60  0.93  0.67  0.96  0.78
> > 7     0.83  0.31  0.49  0.93  0.67  0.97
> > 
> > The odds of wining @Michigan have fallen dramatically, from 50% to
> > less than 1/3.  The odds of beating Michigan State have fallen from
> > 4/5 to 2/3.  The game at @Penn State has fallen from nearly 3/5 to
> > less than 1/2.  The odds of beating Iowa went down then up.  The
> > odds on Minnesota and Northwestern have remained about the same.
> > 
> > In the two games played in that time, NU did not go undefeated
> > (about 19% chance), avoided losing both (about 16% chance), and
> > split (about 65% chance).
> > 
> > Here are the odds on records in the final 6 games:
> > 0-6:  0.00%
> > 1-5:  0.22%
> > 2-4:  3.44%
> > 3-3: 18.69%
> > 4-2: 39.01%
> > 5-1: 31.02%
> > 6-0:  7.62%
> > For those who worried yesterday about bowl eligibility, the odds
> > appear to be better than 99.99%.  The expected record in the final
> > 6 games is 4.2-1.8, for an overall record of 9.2-2.8.
> > 
> > As a point of comparison, NU's expected conference record is 5.2-2.8,
> > Michigan's expected conference record is 6.4-1.6, and Michigan State's
> > is 5.33-2.67.  Nebraska definitely is not the favorite to win the
> > division, but one of those two teams will lose next week while NU is
> > idle.  Then, NU likely gets a win at Minnesota while Michigan State
> > likely gets beat by Wisconsin (80%, even at home) while Michigan
> > has a bye week.  Michigan doesn't have to play Wisconsin and NU
> > get Michigan State at home, so I'll be rooting for MSU against
> > Michigan next week.
> > 
> > Retrospectively, before Wisconsin:
> > 0-8:  0.00%
> > 1-7:  0.02%
> > 2-6:  0.32%
> > 3-5:  2.77%
> > 4-4: 12.29%
> > 5-3: 28.72%
> > 6-2: 34.17%
> > 7-1: 18.50%
> > 8-0:  3.22%
> > Expected: 5.62-2.38 (9.62-2.38)
> > 
> > and before Ohio State:
> > 0-7:  0.00%
> > 1-6:  0.07%
> > 2-5:  1.03%
> > 3-4:  6.76%
> > 4-3: 21.69%
> > 5-2: 35.43%
> > 6-1: 27.45%
> > 7-0:  7.56%
> > Expected: 5.04-1.96 (9.04-2.96)
> > 
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> 
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