[Husker] Odds ahead

[Steve Reichenbach]

The Husker's were idle, but it was a good week odds-wise.
The Husker's were idle, but it was a good week odds-wise.

The Husker's were idle, but it was a good week odds-wise.  Massey's
odds on beating Michigan St in Lincoln went down, but only 67% to 62%.
Meanwhile, the odds of beating Michigan improved from 31% to 42%, the
odds of beating Penn St went from 49% to 58%, the odds of beating Iowa
went from 83% to 88%, and the odds of beating Northwester went from
93% to 96%.  The odds for Minnesota remained at 97%.  So, the predicted
record went from 9.2-2.8 to 9.43-2.57.  The odds of 10-2 or better
now is nearly 50%.

0-6:  0.00%
1-5:  0.09%
2-4:  1.91%
3-3: 13.89%
4-2: 35.51%
5-1: 36.23%
6-0: 12.38%
4.43-1.57

Michigan St's predicted conference record is 6.22-1.78, compared
to 5.43-2.57 for Nebraska.  Even though Michigan lost, they are
favored in every remaining game (unlike MSU which is the underdog
against Wisconsin and at NU and Nebraska which is the underdog
@Michigan) and their predicted conference record is 5.57-2.43.

Nebraska may have to beat both MSU and Michigan to win the division.
Likely, MSU only needs to split against NU and Wisconsin (if it wins
its other games) and Michigan only needs to beat Nebraska (if it wins
its other games).

Even though both NU and MSU control their destiny, I think Michigan
is the favorite, being favored in every game.  On the other hand,
if MSU beats either Wisconsin or NU, they don't have another very
tough game on the schedule (the toughest is 72% @Iowa).  If NU
can beat MSU, they still have to win at Penn St to setup a showdown
with Michigan.

> Here's how Massey's odds have changed since I first looked at them
> before the Wisconsin game:
> 
> Week  Iowa  Mich  PSU   NW    MSU   UMN   OSU   UW
> 5     0.78  0.50  0.59  0.96  0.80  0.95  0.80  0.24
> 6     0.73  0.37  0.60  0.93  0.67  0.96  0.78
> 7     0.83  0.31  0.49  0.93  0.67  0.97
> 
> The odds of wining @Michigan have fallen dramatically, from 50% to
> less than 1/3.  The odds of beating Michigan State have fallen from
> 4/5 to 2/3.  The game at @Penn State has fallen from nearly 3/5 to
> less than 1/2.  The odds of beating Iowa went down then up.  The
> odds on Minnesota and Northwestern have remained about the same.
> 
> In the two games played in that time, NU did not go undefeated
> (about 19% chance), avoided losing both (about 16% chance), and
> split (about 65% chance).
> 
> Here are the odds on records in the final 6 games:
> 0-6:  0.00%
> 1-5:  0.22%
> 2-4:  3.44%
> 3-3: 18.69%
> 4-2: 39.01%
> 5-1: 31.02%
> 6-0:  7.62%
> For those who worried yesterday about bowl eligibility, the odds
> appear to be better than 99.99%.  The expected record in the final
> 6 games is 4.2-1.8, for an overall record of 9.2-2.8.
> 
> As a point of comparison, NU's expected conference record is 5.2-2.8,
> Michigan's expected conference record is 6.4-1.6, and Michigan State's
> is 5.33-2.67.  Nebraska definitely is not the favorite to win the
> division, but one of those two teams will lose next week while NU is
> idle.  Then, NU likely gets a win at Minnesota while Michigan State
> likely gets beat by Wisconsin (80%, even at home) while Michigan
> has a bye week.  Michigan doesn't have to play Wisconsin and NU
> get Michigan State at home, so I'll be rooting for MSU against
> Michigan next week.
> 
> Retrospectively, before Wisconsin:
> 0-8:  0.00%
> 1-7:  0.02%
> 2-6:  0.32%
> 3-5:  2.77%
> 4-4: 12.29%
> 5-3: 28.72%
> 6-2: 34.17%
> 7-1: 18.50%
> 8-0:  3.22%
> Expected: 5.62-2.38 (9.62-2.38)
> 
> and before Ohio State:
> 0-7:  0.00%
> 1-6:  0.07%
> 2-5:  1.03%
> 3-4:  6.76%
> 4-3: 21.69%
> 5-2: 35.43%
> 6-1: 27.45%
> 7-0:  7.56%
> Expected: 5.04-1.96 (9.04-2.96)
> 
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