[Husker] Odds ahead

[Steve Reichenbach]

Here's how Massey's odds have changed since I first looked at them
before the Wisconsin game:

Week  Iowa  Mich  PSU   NW    MSU   UMN   OSU   UW
5     0.78  0.50  0.59  0.96  0.80  0.95  0.80  0.24
6     0.73  0.37  0.60  0.93  0.67  0.96  0.78
7     0.83  0.31  0.49  0.93  0.67  0.97

The odds of wining @Michigan have fallen dramatically, from 50% to
less than 1/3.  The odds of beating Michigan State have fallen from
4/5 to 2/3.  The game at @Penn State has fallen from nearly 3/5 to
less than 1/2.  The odds of beating Iowa went down then up.  The
odds on Minnesota and Northwestern have remained about the same.

In the two games played in that time, NU did not go undefeated
(about 19% chance), avoided losing both (about 16% chance), and
split (about 65% chance).

Here are the odds on records in the final 6 games:
0-6:  0.00%
1-5:  0.22%
2-4:  3.44%
3-3: 18.69%
4-2: 39.01%
5-1: 31.02%
6-0:  7.62%
For those who worried yesterday about bowl eligibility, the odds
appear to be better than 99.99%.  The expected record in the final
6 games is 4.2-1.8, for an overall record of 9.2-2.8.

As a point of comparison, NU's expected conference record is 5.2-2.8,
Michigan's expected conference record is 6.4-1.6, and Michigan State's
is 5.33-2.67.  Nebraska definitely is not the favorite to win the
division, but one of those two teams will lose next week while NU is
idle.  Then, NU likely gets a win at Minnesota while Michigan State
likely gets beat by Wisconsin (80%, even at home) while Michigan
has a bye week.  Michigan doesn't have to play Wisconsin and NU
get Michigan State at home, so I'll be rooting for MSU against
Michigan next week.

Retrospectively, before Wisconsin:
0-8:  0.00%
1-7:  0.02%
2-6:  0.32%
3-5:  2.77%
4-4: 12.29%
5-3: 28.72%
6-2: 34.17%
7-1: 18.50%
8-0:  3.22%
Expected: 5.62-2.38 (9.62-2.38)

and before Ohio State:
0-7:  0.00%
1-6:  0.07%
2-5:  1.03%
3-4:  6.76%
4-3: 21.69%
5-2: 35.43%
6-1: 27.45%
7-0:  7.56%
Expected: 5.04-1.96 (9.04-2.96)