[Husker] Final Big XII men's BB game in Lincoln

[Steve Reichenbach]

There are many aspects of this scenario, but I got one wrong.
A win by ISU isn't as important as I implied.  Even if CU beats
ISU, if NU wins in Boulder, NU will have the tiebreaker.  Still,
it looks better for NU to be tied for 5th-6th with Missouri than
to be tied for 5th-7th with Missouri and Colorado.

> The ISU loss was huge, but there still may be a small opening for
> the NCAA tournament.  Last night's OSU victory over Baylor may
> have left the door open.  If the Big 12 gets six teams in the NCAA
> tournament, Nebraska has a shot.
> 
> Now:
> 
> Step 1:  A win by ISU over CU tonight in Ames would put CU at 7-8,
> tied for 6th-8th with Nebraska and Baylor.  This is important because
> otherwise it appears that CU would have the tiebreaker over NU.
> 
> Step 2:  KU wins in Columbia to drop Missouri to 8-8.  Even though
> this is in Columbia and KU is hated there, KU is the better team.
> (This isn't a critical result, because, if the subsequent games go
> NU's way, Missouri has the tiebreaker over Nebraska for the fifth
> seed at the conference tournament.  However, it would allow Nebraska
> to tie for fifth in the standings.)
> 
> Step 3:  Texas wins at Baylor, dropping Baylor to 7-9.  I know
> Texas has 3 of its last 4 (including NU), but that may provide
> some motivation in its last regular season game.  This is important
> because otherwise Baylor would have the tiebreaker over NU.
> 
> Step 4:  Nebraska wins at Colorado, raising its record to 8-8 and
> dropping Colorado to 7-9 (with Step 1).
> 
> Then, Nebraska finishes at 8-8, tied with Missouri for 5th-6th in
> the standings, although Missouri has the tiebreaker with Nebraska
> for the conference tournament seed.
> 
> As the 6th seed, NU would open the conference tournament against
> the 11th seed, which well could be the loser of tonight's OU-TTU
> game.
> 
> Step 5:  Nebraska wins the first game at the conference tournament.
> 
> Then, Nebraska would play the third seed, presumably TAMU or KSU.
> If TAMU loses tonight at KU and then beats TTU, they will be 10-6.
> If KSU beats ISU at home, they will finish 10-6.  TAMU beat KSU
> and so holds the tiebreaker, in which case NU would play TAMU,
> which, at this point in the season, might be better than playing
> KSU again.
> 
> Step 6:  Nebraska beats TAMU, as they did at home earlier this
> season and advances to the semi-finals, against perhaps Texas
> (a team NU has beaten) or KSU (which is looking like the team
> no one wants to play).
> 
> Nebraska has some good wins, TAMU (twice if they beat them in the
> conference tournament), Texas, and Missouri, but several bad losses
> (Davison, TTU, and ISU, although none at home).  On its own, NU's
> record isn't stellar, but the Big 12 is well respected and if NU is
> tied for 5th-6th, I think the strength of the conference and NU's
> finish in the standings could help push NU into the NCAA tournament.
> If NU can win two games at the conference tournament, it would help
> greatly.  If NU loses in the second round of the conference tournament,
> making the NCAA tournament would be more of a question mark, even with
> Steps 1-5 going Nebraska's way.