[Husker] Hoops...

[Steve Reichenbach]

If NU has 20 wins in the regular season, they will be 8-8 in one of
the toughest conferences in the country.  In the history of the Big 12,
every Big 12 team with 20 or more regular season wins and a .500 or
better regular season record has gone to the NCAA tournament.  So,
speculation that "probably won't be enough" is not based on the
historical record of the conference.

It isn't really true to say NU has no quality non-conference wins.
Here are NU's best wins so far:
  USC #54
  Iowa State #95
  Hofstra #99
  Creighton #100
Although there are no _high_ quality wins, those are good wins.
Losing to Vanderbilt by 10 on a neutral court doesn't really hurt;
Vanderbilt has the #19 RPI.  Losing to Davidson on a neutral court
is the only bad result --- Davidson is #145 in RPI --- but it was
a close game, early in the year, a day after a tough loss.

Can NU win 7 or more of the remaining conference games?  This week
will be toubh with probable losses at Missouri and KU, but those
games won't count too much against NU if they are losses.  Then,
Colorado at home and at Texas Tech at home are games NU needs to
win.  Although CU just beat Missouri in Boulder, they don't look
to be as good as USC or Iowa State.  Texas Tech has lost at home
to several teams not as good as NU.  At that point, NU should be
3-2 in the conference.

Texas A&M is a good team, but they come to Lincoln.  Sagarin has
NU by 1pt at home.  That would be a big win for the Huskers, taking
NU to 4-2.  Then, NU will have a two tough games, probable losses
to KSU on the road and KU at home.  That would drop NU to 4-4 at
the midway point.

Sagarin has rated above Baylor, so although NU isn't favored at Baylor,
it is a game NU could win.  NU would be favored at home against
Oklahoma State.  Oklahoma is looking bad at 8-6, so Sagarin has NU
favored even at Norman.  Texas will be a tough win, but the game is
in Lincoln.  Let's say NU goes 2-2 in those games (beating both
Oklahoma schools).

To finish, NU has two tough games at home --- KSU and Missouri ---
and two weaker teams on the road --- ISU and Colorado.  All of those
games are winnable, but say NU goes 2-2 to finish 8-8.  Sagarin has
NU favored in both home games.

They've got to play better than they did against at home against
ISU, but looking at the schedule, it can be done.  Sagarin favors
NU: CU, @TTU, TAMU, OSU, @OU, KSU, and MU.  That is the formula for
8-8: 6-2 at home and 2-6 on the road.  Some other winnable games
might be @BU, UT, @CU, @ISU.  

> Actually 20 wins probably won't be enough to get NU an NCAA tourney
> bid. We have no quality non-con wins and a poor chance of a winning
> conference record. I think the NIT is a real possiblity, but it's a
> long season and the win yesterday was nice, but very sloppy and easily
> could have been a loss.
> 
> > Well...with a 10 point lead at halftime the Huskers manage a 1 point
> > win over an Iowa State team that was wondering where they were going to
> > find players. Man, if this is what this season is gonna look like I
> > will definately need more tums.All I want is 20 wins and an NCAA
> > tourney birth...is that too much to ask.. C'mon is that too much? Just
> > give me 20 wins....